Troy @ South Alabama (-12.5)
Troy (1-5, 0-2)
Trojans are 0-5 vs I-A teams, with home losses by 21-17 points.
Troy has 2 starters back on offense, 2 on defense
Trojans have 42 starts back on offensive line.
Frosh QB Kilcrease is 25-43/379 passing (3 TD’s, no INTs).
Trojans are giving up 31 ppg vs I-A opponents.

Troy was 23-5 SU last two years; they’re 0-5 SU/1-4 ATS vs I-A teams TY
Last 2+ years, Troy is 6-2 ATS as a road underdog.
Last 2+ years, Trojans are 13-5 ATS in Sun Belt games (0-2 TY).
Under is 3-1 in Troy’s last four games.
Trojans are 4-8 ATS in last 12 games coming off a loss.

South Alabama (2-4, 1-1)
USA is 1-4 in I-A games (only win 48-14 at App State).
Jaguars lost only I-A home game, 52-38 to North Texas.
USA has 4 starters back on offense, 3 on defense.
Jaguars have 21 returning starts on the offensive line.
Frosh QB Lopez has thrown for 1,306 yards (12 TD’s, one INT).

USA is 6-8 ATS last 14 games as a home favorite.
Last 4+ years, South Alabama is 15-19 ATS in Sun Belt games.
New coach Applewhite was 15-11 in two years at Houston (’17-’18)
South Alabama is 5-6 ATS in last 11 games coming off a loss.
Jaguars’ last four I-A games stayed under the total.

Troy won/covered last six series games.
Trojans are 5-1 SU/4-1-1 ATS in last six visits to Mobile.
Under is 4-1 in last five meetings.
Sun Belt home favorites are 5-5 ATS in conference play.

Kennesaw State @ Middle Tennessee State (-10)
Kennesaw State (0-5, 0-1)
Kennesaw lost its first three I-A games by 12-24-21-39 points.
Owls also lost 27-13 to UT-Martin, a I-AA team.
Kennesaw has 7 starters back on offense, 9 on defense
Owls have 33 starts back on offensive line, added six transfers.
Soph QB Bryson is 57-111/616 passing, with 2 TD’s, 6 INTs.

All four of their I-A losses were by 12+ points.
Kennesaw is 1-3 ATS as an underdog this year.
Owls were outgained by 236.3 yards/game in their I-A tilts.
Kennesaw is 2-9 ATS in last ten games coming off a loss.
Under is 3-1 in their I-A games this season.

Middle Tennessee (1-5, 0-2)
MTSU is 0-5 vs I-A teams, outscored 218-69 (44-14 average).
MTSU beat a I-AA team 32-25, but was outgained, 341-328.
MTSU has 4 starters back on offense, 3 on defense.
Blue Raiders have 26 returning starts on offensive line.
Junior QB Vattiato has started 18 games.

MTSU is 7-9 ATS last 16 games as a home favorite.
In his career, Mason is 9-11 ATS as a home favorite.
MTSU is minus-8 in turnovers in its I-A games.
MTSU is 5-13 ATS in its last 17 conference games.
Blue Raiders are 6-10 ATS in last 16 games coming off a loss.
Three of their last four games went over.

These teams haven’t met recently.
Favorites are 7-4 ATS in C-USA conference games.

Louisiana Tech (-11) @ New Mexico State
Louisiana Tech (2-3, 1-1)
Tech is 1-3 vs I-A teams; they beat MTSU 48-21 last week.
Bulldogs are minus-7 in turnovers in their four games.
Tech has 5 starters back on offense, 5 on defense.
Tech has 79 returning starts on offensive line.
Frosh QB Bullock is 48-68/557 passing (6 TD, no INTs).

Under Cumbie, Tech is 3-11 ATS on the road (1-1 TY).
In his career, Cumbie is 4-8 ATS as a favorite (1-2 TY).
LW, Tech ran ball for 222 yards (averaged 69.7 in previous 3).
Bulldogs are 2-8 ATS in their last nine conference games.
Under Cumbie, Tech is 2-5 ATS coming off a win.

New Mexico State (1-5, 0-3)
Aggies are 0-5 vs I-A teams, giving up 42.6 ppg.
Aggies have given up 288.6 rushing yards/game in I-A games.
NM State has 5 starters back on offense, 3 on defense
Aggies have 115 starts back on offensive line.
Former JC QB Awad is 29-70/363 passing (3 TDs, 3 INTs).

Aggies lost two I-A home games, 30-24 (Liberty), 50-40 (New Mexico).
Last 2+ years, NM State is 3-2 ATS as a home underdog.
Aggies are 15-10 ATS in last 25 games coming off a loss (0-4 TY).
NM State has completed less than half its passes in all five games.
Aggies did run for 285-206 yards in their last two games.

Louisiana Tech is 6-1 SU/3-4 ATS in last seven series games.
Tech won last three visits to Las Cruces, by 14-21-4 points (1-2 ATS)
Last three meetings stayed under the total.
Favorites are 7-4 ATS in C-USA conference games.

Troy Trojans at South Alabama Jaguars (-12, 56.5)
7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN2)

It has been a tough season for Troy thus far and they’re in some territory that they haven’t been in a long time. This will be the Trojans second underdog role of double digits in conference play. You have to go back to the 2021 season for the last time that happened, as Coastal Carolina and Appalachian State were the teams in that role. The Chanticleers were actually in the Top 25 when that game happened.

Chip Lindsey got fired after that season. Jon Sumrall took over and Troy went 23-4 and 14-2 in conference play before he took the Tulane job. This season, Gerad Parker is off to a 1-5 start and the lone win came over FCS Florida A&M. The Trojans are on a little bit of extra rest here and may get back QB Goose Crowder, who has missed a lot of time this season and left the Louisiana Monroe game with an upper body injury.

Collectively, the Troy QB have a 9/1 TD/INT ratio with a 63.6% completion rate, but three different QB have at least 44 pass attempts. The Trojans have also absorbed 14 sacks. They’ve only rushed for 3.9 yards per carry as a team, though leading rusher Damien Taylor has been solid with 5.9 yards per pop.

South Alabama comes in 2-4 for first-year head coach Major Applewhite, who was elevated from OC to HC after Kane Wommack left to join his pal Kalen DeBoer at Alabama. The Jaguars dropped 87 points on FCS Northwestern State and 48 points the following game on App State, but have scored 84 points total in their four losses. That includes the 18-16 loss to Arkansas State 10 days ago in a game that featured 864 yards of offense and just 34 points.

South Alabama had 6.6 yards per play, but had two long first-half drives snuffed out by turnovers. Gio Lopez has been terrific with a 12/1 TD/INT ratio and over 1,300 passing yards, plus he’s contributed 258 yards on the ground with 6.3 yards per carry. The Jags also have six yards per carry.

It isn’t a surprise that the offense is humming under Applewhite, the former Houston HC and Power Five OC. But, the defense misses Wommack and former DC Corey Batoon. In the five games against FBS foes, the Jags have allowed 6.9 yards per play. In their four losses, they’ve allowed 7.2 YPP.

South Alabama has also recorded just six sacks this season. In fact, each team has just six sacks on the year. South Alabama has five in five FBS games and Troy has four in their five FBS games.

Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (-10.5, 50.5) at New Mexico State Aggies: Speaking of LA Tech, they’re in Las Cruces here to take on New Mexico State. This feels like a big number for the guys from Ruston, though they did just beat a bad MTSU team by 27. MTSU would be a comfortable favorite over NMSU. The Aggies had a close call against Liberty in a game that they probably should have won and have given up 48, 31, 50, and 54 in four games since.

Let's head to Murfreesboro, Tennessee, for a Conference USA clash on Tuesday evening. The Kennesaw State Owls (0-5, 0-1 CUSA) hit the road and will carry their winless record to take on the Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders (1-5, 0-2).

The game is set to kick off at 8 p.m. ET on CBS Sports Network.

The Owls got trounced before their bye week against Jacksonville State, as it felt like a classic FCS game from a couple of years ago. They looked like they didn't belong on the same field as the Gamecocks, considering their defense was shredded on the ground all evening.

The Blue Raiders defense looked just as poor in a 48-21 loss to Louisiana Tech last week. Despite this, they enter the matchup as 10-point home favorites.

Oddsmakers set the total at 51.5, and plenty of money is pouring in on the over.

Right now, the total is sitting at 51.5 — right above a key number of 51. It seems like many believe that we're headed for a high-scoring affair, but I refuse to believe that with the Kennesaw State offense.

Given how bad both of these defenses have been and the slow pace of both offenses, I expect both teams to establish drives with a lot of clock churning. The key will be for the Owls to move the ball a bit, as they run the ball at a 62% clip.

If they can somehow play keep-away, it will lower the number of possessions in the game. The Blue Raiders' passing attack will eventually prevail in the end, but this is all about focusing on the number of possessions for both teams.

Given that there should be a lack of explosives, plenty of these offensive drives should take a lot of time off of the clock.

The South Alabama Jaguars (2-4, 1-1 Sun Belt) and Troy Trojans (1-5, 0-2) kick off this week’s college football action in the Battle of the Belt on Tuesday night.

The Jaguars have dropped two straight to fall to 2-4 on the season and 1-1 in the Sun Belt.

Meanwhile, the Trojans have also struggled in the early part of this season, owning just one win over Florida A&M to go with five losses.

With two teams desperate for a rivalry win on Tuesday night, South Alabama enters as a -13.5 favorite with the over/under sitting at 55.

The impact of all of the starters Troy lost on defense has shown in the team’s metrics. The Trojans rank outside the top 100 in multiple categories, including Rushing Success Rate Allowed, Defensive Quality Drives and PFF tackle grading.

This is the same unit that's allowing over 200 yards per game on the ground against FBS opponents. That's bad news in this matchup. Meanwhile, South Alabama ranks in the top five nationally in Rush Success and Offensive Line Yards.

While Lopez and Co. will have success running the ball, I could also see the Jaguars throwing all over this Troy defense. The Trojans are below average in defending the pass, and they struggle to put pressure on opposing quarterbacks.

To make matters worse, South Alabama does a great job of converting drives into points, ranking top-10 in Finishing Drives.

I expect Troy to keep this game competitive with scores of its own, which should keep the Jaguars motivated to keep scoring as well. With the Trojans winning six straight in this rivalry, this should be a spot where South Alabama looks for revenge.

Western Kentucky @ Sam Houston State (-3)
Western Kentucky (4-2, 2-0)
WKU won its two C-USA tilts, 49-21 MTSU, 44-17 UTEP.
WKU’s losses: 63-0 at Alabama, 21-20 at Boston College.
Hilltoppers have 9 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
WKU has 91 starts back on offensive line.
Soph QB Veltkamp is 94-135/1,147 passing (11 TD’s, 5 INTs).

WKU is 16-7-1 ATS in last 24 games as a road underdog.
WKU is 17-9-1 ATS in last 27 conference games.
Hilltoppers are 17-8-1 ATS in last 26 games coming off a win.
WKU outgained BC 355-279 in their loss in Boston Sept 28.
WKU’s other I-A win was 26-21 (+2.5) over Toledo.

Sam Houston State (5-1, 2-0)
Bearkats won last four games, scoring 31-31-40-41 points.
Bearkats ran ball for 282 yards/game in those wins.
Sam Houston has 8 starters back on offense, 4 on defense
Bearkats have 70 starts back on offensive line.
Junior QB Watson played JC ball in Iowa last year.

Sam Houston is 2-7 ATS last 9 games as home favorites (2-0 TY).
Bearkats are 14-15 ATS in last 28 conference games.
Bearkats were down 22-0, rallied to beat Texas State 40-39 on Sept 28.
Sam Houston is 5-1 ATS in last five games coming off a win.
Bearkats won their two home games, 31-13/31-11

WKU (-11) beat the Bearkats 28-23 at home last year.
Hilltoppers outgained Sam Houston 465-357, were minus-2 in turnovers.

Florida International (-7) @ Texas-El Paso
FIU (2-4, 1-1)
FIU gave up 16-10 points in wins, 31-38-45-31 in losses.
Panthers have a 45-42 loss to I-AA Monmouth.
FIU has 8 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
FIU has 62 returning starts on the offensive line.
Junior QB Jankins started 11 games last year.

FIU is a road favorite for first time since 2019.
In his career, MacIntyre is 5-4 ATS as road favorite.
Last 4+ years, FIU is 0-6 ATS as a favorite anywhere.
Under MacIntyre, FIU is 8-9 ATS coming off a loss.
Under MacIntyre, FIU is 8-10 ATS in conference games.

Texas-El Paso (0-6, 0-3)
Miners lost I-A games by 33-18-10-20-27 points, scoring 14.4 ppg.
UTEP has been outrushed 1,145-466 in its I-A games.
UTEP has 4 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
Miners have 26 starts back on offensive line, mostly at I-AA level.
Soph QB Locklear came with the new coach from I-AA Austin Peay.

UTEP is 6-5 ATS in last 11 games as a home underdog (0-1 TY).
UTEP is 18-13 ATS in last 30 conference games.
Miners are 12-10 ATS in last 21 games coming off a loss.
UTEP lost 27-24 to I-AA Southern Utah.
Last two games, Miners allowed 517-482 TY, in C-USA games.

UTEP won last two series games, 27-14/40-6.
Panthers lost two of last three visits to El Paso.
Last three meetings stayed under the total.

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at Sam Houston State Bearkats (-3, 55.5)
7 p.m. ET (ESPN2)

Many of us in the betting community felt like Liberty wouldn’t have significant challengers in the conference this season. This is all of the sudden a huge game, as both Western Kentucky and Sam Houston are 2-0 in league action. Liberty plays both of them later in the season, as well as Jacksonville State, who is off this week to prep for MTSU next Wednesday.

Western Kentucky’s losses are a 63-0 beating at the hands of Alabama and a one-point loss at Boston College in which the Hilltoppers led by two scores entering the fourth quarter. The Bearkats were crushed in Orlando by UCF, but are unblemished otherwise, including a frantic comeback win over Texas State a couple games ago.

Neither team has shined on offense. The Hilltoppers rank 69th in yards per play and Sam Houston is 92nd, with a difference of 0.3 YPP between the two. Keep in mind, though that WKU throws the ball a lot more than SHSU. The Bearkats have 150 pass attempts against 286 rushes. The Hilltoppers have 212 pass attempts against 198 rushes.

Defensively the Bearkats have the edge, which is why they are favored. This is the 59th-ranked defense by YPP and WKU is 98th, but the Alabama offense had over nine yards per play against the Hilltoppers. They’ve allowed 5.34 YPP otherwise. Sam Houston gave up 7.5 to UCF and has allowed 4.7 to everybody else.

FIU Panthers (-6.5, 49) at UTEP Miners: You have to go back to 2019 to find the last time FIU was a road favorite and 2018 to find a situation when FIU was -6.5 or higher away from home. UTEP just seems to be that bad and FIU played well last week against Liberty. That said, as bad as UTEP is, these are some big expectations for FIU. The Panthers have lost to some lesser teams this season themselves.

I can’t really make a statistical case for UTEP here, as they’re behind badly in yards per play, yards per play differential, and basically any other metric.