The ALCS takes a break on Wednesday, while the NLCS gets going once again. The series has shifted to New York, where the Mets will feel right at home in Queens and the Dodgers are in Eastern Time for the first time in about a month.

Walker Buehler and Luis Severino will be the ones to start this pivotal Game 3, as the series is tied 1-1 and this is a key swing game. Teams that win Game 3 to go up 2-1 are 106-45 in the series per WhoWins.com, so this one is definitely big, as that’s a 70.2% win rate. Teams in this round that go up 2-1 are 44-16, so 73.3%.

Los Angeles Dodgers (-118, 7.5) at New York Mets
8:08 p.m. ET (FOX)

Opposing groups with influence have been kicking this line back and forth, as we’ve seen both the Mets and Dodgers favored. The Dodgers turn to Buehler in this one after an uninspiring start in the NLDS. He went five innings and allowed six runs on seven hits. All six runs came in one inning, but the bigger thing to me is that he didn’t strike out any of the 24 batters that he faced. That leaves very little margin for error when you can’t generate swings and misses.

It will be a cool evening in Queens, so that may help him. He gave up 16 homers in just 75.1 innings of work during the regular season. His 18.8% HR/FB% was the fourth-highest of any pitcher with at least 70 innings pitched. Overall, Buehler had a 5.38 ERA with a 4.68 xERA and a 5.54 FIP over 16 starts.

Buehler had eight whiffs in 39 swings and really settled down late, as he didn’t allow a single hard-hit ball in the air after the second inning. That does seem like a positive sign for the Dodgers heading into this game, though the damage had already been done.

Severino has allowed seven runs on 14 hits in 12 innings here in the postseason. He has only walked two of the 51 batters that he has faced, which is a good sign after posting a 7.9% BB% in the regular season. That’s a good number, as it was better than the league average, but he also faces a very patient Dodgers lineup that doesn’t chase a whole lot. Severino has 10 strikeouts in the playoffs thus far for a 19.6% K%.

There should be a lot of balls in play tonight. The hitting conditions aren’t ideal with temperatures in the 50s and the wind blowing in from LF. I think we do get run-scoring opportunities here. Whether or not the teams cash in is up to the BABIP gods. The Dodgers bullpen has a 3.15 ERA with 12 runs allowed on 27 hits, but they’ve walked 13 guys. The Mets have a 3.82 ERA with 17 runs allowed on 30 hits in 35.1 innings, but they’ve walked 20 guys.

Home field has proven somewhat advantageous in series that are even, as hosts in this situation have gone 79-74 on run lines (+17.59 units, ROI: 11.5%) since 2015.
System Match (PLAY): NY METS (+1.5 vs. LAD)

Teams playing as underdogs in an MLB postseason series after their bullpen was used for 5+ innings in the same series prior game are just 32-52 SU (-11.87 units, ROI: -14.1%) since 2016.
System Match (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND (+145 at NYY), LA DODGERS (-108 at NYM)

Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging in deeper to the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick-’ems) in the -110 to +144 range, those teams produced a 319-342 record for +7.54 units (ROI 1.1%). I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive.
* In the ’24 playoffs, these teams are 6-5 for +1.82 units.
System Matches (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-108 at NYM)

Trends based on regular-season records
In the last 114 MLB playoff games matching teams with 7+ regular-season win differential between them, the supposed better team is just 51-63 SU (-36.60 units, ROI: -32.1%) since 2019, including a hard-to-fathom 1-13 in 2023!
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-108 at NYM)

In the last three playoff seasons following a full regular season (excluding 2020), MLB teams that won less than 90 games are on a surge of 52-45 SU (+16.48 units, ROI: 17%) and 63-34 on run lines (+20.55 units, ROI: 21.2%) in playoff games.
System Match (PLAY): NY METS

(959) LOS ANGELES-NL (102-67) at (960) NEW YORK-NL (95-76)
Trend: LAD trending Over vs. NL teams (75-44 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 7.5)

Trend: LAD has a 5-12 record as a road underdog this season
System Match: FADE LA DODGERS (-108 at NYM)

Trend: NYM good at night (62-38, +22.35 units)
System Match: PLAY NY METS (-112 vs. LAD)

Most bet (tickets) Dodgers-Mets Game 3 player props at #BetMGM

1. Shohei Ohtani Over 0.5 HR (+260)

2. Pete Alonso Over 0.5 HR (+375)

3. Francisco Lindor Over 0.5 HR (+400)

4. Pete Alonso Over 1.5 Total hits, runs, RBIs (+110)

Odds to win Dodgers-Mets series at BetMGM

Game 1
▪️ Dodgers -175
▪️ Mets +145

Game 2 (LAD up 1-0)
▪️ Dodgers -300
▪️ Mets +250

Game 3 (Tied 1-1)
▪️ Dodgers -155
▪️ Mets +130

63% of bets are on Mets to win series.

66% of money is on Dodgers

Dodgers-Mets Game 3 betting at BetMGM

Dodgers open -115, now -110
▪️ 49% of bets, 47% of money on Dodgers

Total open 8, now 7.5
▪️ 73% of bets, 74% of money on Over

Mets open +1.5 (-250), now -1.5 (+150)
▪️ 65% of bets, 64% of money on Mets