The Leading Logic In Sports Handicapping |
|
|
|
|
|
|
msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
|
Things look really bad right now in New York, huh? After losing two games in a row and scoring just 26 points in the process, the Jets elected to move on from head coach Robert Saleh. Will it matter? Was he the problem? I guess we’ll see. However, let’s not act like there aren’t problems in Buffalo right now as well, as after last week’s loss at Houston, some of my most respected colleagues were calling for head coach Sean McDermott to be on the hot seat. The Bills scored just 30 points in their last two losses and QB Josh Allen was dinged up in the process.
Well, heading into what is becoming a very important game in terms of the AFC East standings, public bettors at DraftKings are loving Buffalo as the road favorite, with 78% on both the handle and bets on that side of the ledger. As I said earlier, I really prefer to back road favorites that deserve it. I’m not convinced about the Bills, as the questions I had about them going into 2024 are coming into play. Let’s look closely at a few different angles that I feel give New York a good shot here.
First, underdogs are 9-1 ATS in the last 10 of the Bills/Jets series at New York. Second, with QB Aaron Rodgers, who is 6-1 ATS as a home dog, under fire, the results since 2005 of veteran quarterbacks playing with their new teams at home are quite impressive, as they have gone 116-68 SU and 97-76-11 ATS (56.1%). These vet QBs are also on a 73-66 SU and 77-59-3 ATS run (56.6%) with their new teams coming off outright losses, veteran QBs have gone 73-66 SU and 77-59-3 ATS (56.6%). This trend dates back to 2016.
If it comforts you to rely on the recent history of Monday Night Football, NFL home underdogs on MNF are on a run of 12-10 SU and 14-7-1 ATS (66.7%) dating back to September ’21. Plus, Won/lost records have mattered on MNF, as teams with the better record are 33-31 SU but just 22-40-2 ATS (35.5%) in the last 64 MNF games not matching teams with identical records.
|
10-14-24 08:16 AM |
|
|
| |
|
|