8:15 p.m. ET: Buffalo Bills (-1.5, 41.5) at New York Jets

The Bills (3-2) have dropped two straight games and just fell to the Texans 23-20, failing to cover as 2-point road dogs. Similarly, the Jets (2-3) have also lost two straight and just fell to the Vikings 23-17 in London, failing to cover as 2.5-point neutral site dogs.

This line opened with Buffalo listed as a 1.5-point road favorite. The public thinks this line is way too short and 78% of spread bets are rushing to the window to lay the points with the Bills. This heavily lopsided support pushed the Bills up from -1.5 to -3 earlier in the week. However, over the past 24-48 hours we’ve seen sharp buyback on the Jets at an inflated price, dropping New York back down from +3 to +1.5. Some shops even fell to +1 on gameday. Essentially, all late movement and liability is coming back toward the Jets and the points.

New York is only receiving 22% of spread bets in a heavily bet primetime game, offering notable contrarian value. The Jets have value as a divisional dog (216-187 ATS, 54% since 2020), with the built in familiarity and rivalry aspect leveling the playing field and benefiting the team getting points. Primetime dogs are 126-103 ATS (55%) since 2020. When both teams are coming off a loss and it’s a divisional game, the dog is 67-46 ATS (59%) since 2020. Aaron Rodgers is 28-23 ATS (55%) as a dog in his career. The Jets will also hope for a motivational boost as Jeff Ulbrich will make his head coaching debut in place of the recently fired Robert Saleh. Coaches making their debut after an in-season firing are 9-2 ATS (82%) since 2020. The Jets also offer notable Wong Teaser value (+1.5 to +7.5), which passes through the top two key numbers of 3 and 7.

Sharps are also expecting a lower scoring game here, as the total has dipped from 44 to 41.5. This downward movement is especially notable because the public is hammering the over (72% of bets), yet the line fell. Outdoor divisional unders are 232-189 (55%) since 2021. Primetime unders are 171-116 (60%) since 2019. Weather could also play a role here, as the forecast calls for high 40s with 10-15 MPH winds at MetLife. When the wind blows 10 MPH or more the under is 250-189 (57%) since 2016. Adrian Hill, the lead ref, is 58% to the under historically.

Player Prop to Consider

Breece Hall under 58.5 rushing yards (-110): Hall has gone under this number in four of five games this season. He has also gone under this number in 9 of his last 10 home games. Last week he rushes for 23 yards on 9 carries against Minnesota and then only 4 yards on 10 carries in the previous week against Denver. In his last game against Buffalo (late November of 2023) he rushed for 23 yards on 10 carries.