The Leading Logic In Sports Handicapping |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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NHL Lagniappe 10/14
The opening week of the NHL season has seen five of the teams with the shortest odds on the board (Edmonton, Florida, Colorado, Nashville and Vancouver) to win the Stanley Cup, have just one combined win to start the season. That win came on opening night when the Florida Panthers defeated the Boston Bruins. Of the other four teams, only the Vancouver Canucks have come away with a pair of “loser” points (an overtime and a shootout loss).
With the struggles of the expected top teams in the NHL, wagering on Underdogs in the opening week was very profitable. Favorites (-175+) to start the season are 9-8, but a $100 bettor would (-10.3) units to start the season. If you were to just play favorites (-200+), you would be 5-5 to start the season but (-8.6) units.
So why the rocky start for what are supposed to be the top Cup contenders? In the case of the Oilers, they look like a team that is still in shock from losing Game 7 of the Stanley Cup Final. The Florida Panthers, the team with the only win of the group, are coming off back-to-back losses, and in fairness to them, their most recent loss was without two of their stars, Matthew Tkachuk and Sasha Barkov. Barkov will be out for two to three weeks with a lower-body injury. Tkachuk will return today when Florida travels to Boston.
The Colorado Avalanche can’t get a save from Alexandar Georgiev, who has given up eight goals on 25 shots and has been pulled from both games. The Vancouver Canucks have nine new players on their roster from last season and are without starting goalie Thatcher Demko to start the season, and Nashville hasn’t looked bad in their two losses. They were a goalpost away from forcing overtime in their opener against the Dallas Stars, and they got “goalied” by Cam Talbot of the Detroit Red Wings on Saturday as he stopped all 42 shots that came his way. I expect market correction as we start the second week of the season.
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10-14-24 10:28 PM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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Utah HC at New Jersey Devils (-162, 6.5)
The Utah HC have been one of the great stories from the first week of the NHL season as they have opened with three consecutive wins. They are coming off a pair of overtime wins against the Islanders and Rangers an, this afternoon, get another tough test on one of the Stanley Cup favorites when they play the Devils. Utah HC has scored 16 goals in their three games (tied with Calgary for most in the NHL), led by Dylan Guenther, whose five goals lead the league in that category. All three Utah HC games have gone over the total.
The Devils are coming off a 5-3 win at Washington on Saturday night and improved to (3-1) to start the season. After giving up just one goal in each of their wins versus Buffalo to start the season, New Jersey has been touched for seven goals against (a loss and a win) in their last two games.
Utah’s last two wins have been coin-flip games. Any game going to overtime or a shootout falls into that category. I don’t see this game getting to overtime, and in talking with people who cover the Utah HC, the feeling is they suffer their first loss. One thing to note about betting on the Devils. When they win, they score four or more goals. They have scored at least four goals in two of their three wins this season, and in the two previous seasons, they have scored 4+ goals in 70 of their 90 wins.
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10-14-24 10:30 PM |
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