It is hard to believe that we have already made it to Week 6 of the NFL season. This week will really put the Year of the Underdog to the test, as we have some pretty big favorites on the slate. Many of last week’s games were around the key number of 3, but that didn’t stop underdogs from barking, as the Cardinals beat the 49ers and the Giants beat the Seahawks, wiping out a big chunk of remaining Survivor players.

If the underdogs who are getting a lot of points rise up this week, it will be quite a shocker, as we can no longer consider how teams have played to this point a fluke or an aberration. What we see is primarily what we get, whether that’s consistently good, consistently awful, or consistently inconsistent.

San Francisco 49ers (-3, 47.5) at Seattle Seahawks
Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET

NFC West division rivals clash here, as the 49ers lay a field goal at Lumen Field. Both teams are coming off of surprising losses as big favorites, so the urgency is heightened a bit here on the short week. We do have a pretty big betting angle/storyline here with Kyle Shanahan against a rookie head coach, as Mike Macdonald experiences his first Thursday game. It hasn’t led to any noteworthy SF interest yet. In fact, any 3.5s that were out there at open are gone now.

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Chicago Bears (-2, 44.5) (London)
Sunday, 9:30 a.m. ET

The Jags are listed as the road team here, but they are always at home when they play in London. Trevor Lawrence finally won a game last week, but the Bears also had a big, statement win over the Panthers. They may be starting to look like the team that many expected coming into the season. Meanwhile, the Jaguars gave up 24 points in the fourth quarter to the Colts and turned a 20-10 lead into a sweat-fest.

I’m curious to see how much play the Jacksonville quasi home team angle gets this week because I could see this line continuing to move in Chicago’s direction.

Washington Commanders at Baltimore Ravens (-6.5, 52)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

The Commanders offense keeps humming right along, but the Ravens are still a big favorite in this game. Washington’s last three weeks have been very impressive and the last two weeks have also featured some strong defensive play. Of course, it doesn’t take much to slow down the Browns nowadays, but 76-27 over the last two weeks is impressive in the NFL, regardless of opponent. But, it does appear that the betting market feels as though this step up in class is a big one.

That being said, I don’t think anybody would have expected Washington to be roughly 4 or 4.5 points lower than Baltimore from a power ratings standpoint going into Week 6. The gap was thought to be much larger, a testament to what Jayden Daniels has achieved.

Arizona Cardinals at Green Bay Packers (-5.5, 49.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

Arizona’s unlikely win over the 49ers saved this line from being around 7. It may inch closer to that anyway, as Jordan Love should improve with each passing week as he moves further and further from the knee injury. The Cardinals the poster child for “consistently inconsistent”, which I mentioned above. Getting trucked by the Commanders just to come back and beat the Niners. Playing a great first half against the Bills before falling apart. I will say, they’ve been masterful in the first quarter, scoring on their first drive in all five games. But what happens after that is a huge mystery.

Houston Texans (-7, 37.5) at New England Patriots
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

The Patriots are terrible, but this is a big expectation for the Texans, whose four wins have come by 15 points. They also have a 34-7 loss to the Vikings on their ledger. That’s how you get a 4-1 team with a -12 point differential. I’m not sure how much it matters, but this will be the first outdoor road game for the Texans this season, as their other two have been in Indianapolis and Minneapolis. There really aren’t any redeeming qualities to the Patriots this season, but I’ll be curious to see if some brave souls give them a look.

Cleveland Browns at Philadelphia Eagles (-9, 43)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

Deshaun Watson is still awful, but it has been a complete team effort on offense for the Browns. Kevin Stefanski said he won’t make a change, but I can’t help but feel like it has to be in play. This may be an outright mutiny from the players with how things look at this point. People aren’t really excited about laying big numbers with the Eagles and Nick Sirianni, but here we are. The biggest favorite of the week with a team that hasn’t won by more than five points and sits at 2-2 on the season with losses to two NFC South teams. And I wouldn’t be shocked if this line goes up, as the Browns had a ton of injuries coming out of last week and the Eagles are off of a bye.

Los Angeles Chargers (-3, 36) at Denver Broncos
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET

The Broncos extended their winning streak to three games this past weekend. The Chargers didn’t play, as they rode a two-game skid into the bye. And yet here we are, with the Chargers out to a full 3 across the market. This was 2 or 2.5 last week in the lead-up to Denver’s game against the Raiders and those are all gone at this point. I’m very intrigued about where this line goes. Does it hold 3? Does it come down? Is there any chance it possibly goes up? I think that’s the least likely option, but it is pretty surprising how Denver isn’t getting much love. Say what you will about Bo Nix and it’s probably fair, but this defense has been awesome.

here we go
GL