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msudogs
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Registered: Nov 2005
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MLB Lagniappe 10/09

Trend: Alex Cobb is 2-12 (-12.03 units) in road games in August/September/October in the last four seasons
System Match: FADE CLEVELAND (-110 at DET)

Road favorites in the postseason are on an 8-16 SU skid (-12.10 units, ROI: -50.4%)
System Match (FADE): NY YANKEES (-118 at KC)

The last three-and-a-half MLB postseasons have been very good for Over bettors, as although the outright record on totals is 67-64, Overs have produced a return of +22.20 units, an ROI of 16.9%.
System Matches: PLAY OVER in all 4 games

Since 2013, the number 7 has been key in terms of run scored for teams. In divisional round games following a same series game in which they scored 7 runs or more, teams are 38-26 SU (+14.92 units, ROI: 23.3%).
System Match (PLAY): NY METS (-110 vs. PHI)

Trend: LAD has a record of 4-12 as a road underdog this season
System Match: FADE LA DODGERS (+120 at SD)

Old Post 10-09-24 10:12 PM
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msudogs
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Odds to win Mets-Phillies series at BetMGM

Open
▪️ Mets +150
▪️ Phillies -185

Game 3 (tied 1-1)
▪️ Mets +120
▪️ Phillies -145

Game 4 (NYM up 2-1)
▪️ Mets -250
▪️ Phillies +200

57% of bets are on Mets to win the series.

63% of money is on Phillies

Old Post 10-09-24 10:14 PM
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Most bet (tickets) Tigers-Guardians player props at BetMGM

1. Jose Ramirez over 0.5 home run (+500)

2. Riley Greene over 0.5 home run (+725)

3. Alex Cobb over 2.5 strikeouts (-185)

4. Alex Cobb over 12.5 pitcher outs (+100)

Old Post 10-09-24 10:16 PM
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msudogs
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Updated Phillies-Mets Game 4 betting at BetMGM

Mets open -105, now -120
▪️ 60% of bets, 53% of money on Mets

Total open 7.5, no movement
▪️ 76% of bets, 49% of money on Over

Phillies open -1.5 (+155), now -1.5 (+165)
▪️ 42% of bets, 12% of money on Phillies

Old Post 10-09-24 10:23 PM
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msudogs
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Overall MLB Postseason Trends

Line Angles
Road favorites are on an 8-16 SU skid (-12.10 units, ROI: -50.4%)
System Match (FADE): NY YANKEES (-118 at KC)

Home favorites of -112 to -180 in the MLB playoffs dating back to 2018 have been very vulnerable, as they are just 65-70 SU (-34.51 units, ROI: -25.6%)
System Match (FADE): SAN DIEGO (-148 vs LAD)

Series wins status
For teams leading in a series, home-field advantage has meant quite a lot, as these hosts are 65-44 SU (+14.89 units, ROI: 13.7%) and 56-53 on run lines (+11.10 units, ROI: 10.2%) since 2013.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY METS, SAN DIEGO

Home field has proven somewhat advantageous in series’ that are even, as hosts in this situation have gone 73-74 on run lines (+10.63 units, ROI: 7.2%) since 2015.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DETROIT (+1.5 vs. CLE), KANSAS CITY (+1.5 vs, NYY)

Stats from last game trends
Teams that are favored in an MLB postseason game after having lost the last outing while scoring two runs or fewer are just 42-53 SU (-32.43 units, ROI: -34.1%) and 29-66 on run lines (-27.65 units, ROI: -29.1%) since 2012.
System Match (FADE): NY YANKEES

Old Post 10-09-24 10:24 PM
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Teams playing as underdogs in an MLB postseason series after their bullpen was used for 5+ innings in the same series prior game are just 30-49 SU (-11.17 units, ROI: -14.1%) since 2016.
System Match (FADE): KANSAS CITY (-102 vs. NYY)

Trends based upon regular season records
In the last 108 MLB playoff games matching teams with 7+ regular season win differential between them, the supposed better team is just 48-62 SU (-38.05 units, ROI: -34.6%) since 2019, including a hard-to-fathom 1-13 in ’23!
System Match (FADE): NY YANKEES (-118 at KC)

In the last three playoff seasons following a full regular season (excluding 2020), MLB teams that won less than 90 games are on a surge of 49-40 SU (+18.23 units, ROI: 20.5%) and 58-31 on run lines (+18.70 units, ROI: 21%) in playoff games.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DETROIT, NY METS, KANSAS CITY

Old Post 10-09-24 10:32 PM
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Totals angles
The last three MLB postseasons have been very good for Over bettors, as although the outright record on totals is 67-64, Overs have produced a return of +22.20 units, an ROI of 16.9%. Total vig have been heavily shaded towards Unders.
System Matches: PLAY OVER in all 4 games

Divisional Round Angles
Home field advantage has been particularly prevalent in the divisional series when the host is leading in the series or even. Those hosts are on a surge of 56-35 SU (+7.34 units, ROI: 8.1%) and 48-43 on run lines (+12.69 units, ROI: 13.9%) since 2015.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DETROIT, NY METS, KANSAS CITY, SAN DIEGO

Since 2013, the number 7 has been key in terms of run scored for teams. In divisional round games following a same series game in which they scored 7 runs or more, teams are 38-26 SU (+14.92 units, ROI: 23.3%).
System Match (PLAY): NY METS (-110 vs. PHI)

Old Post 10-09-24 10:32 PM
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Most bet (tickets) Phillies-Mets player props at BetMGM

1. Ranger Suarez over 12.5 pitcher outs (-115)

2. Francisco Lindor over 0.5 HR (+475)

3. Bryce Harper over 0.5 HR (+450)

4. Kyle Schwarber over 0.5 HR (+375)

Old Post 10-09-24 11:02 PM
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(905) PHILADELPHIA (96-69) at (906) NEW YORK-NL (93-75)
Trend: PHI is 16-8 (+8.11 units) in line range -115 to +115 with starter Ranger Suarez in the last four seasons
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (-110 at NYM)

(907) CLEVELAND (93-70) at (908) DETROIT (89-77)
Trend: Alex Cobb is 2-12 (-12.03 units) in road games in August/September/October in the last four seasons
System Match: FADE CLEVELAND (-110 at DET)

(909) NEW YORK-AL (95-69) at (910) KANSAS CITY (89-77)
Stat: Seth Lugo pretty good in postseason play (4 appearances, 6.1 IP, 1.42 ERA)
System Match: PLAY KANSAS CITY (-102 vs. NYY)

(911) LOS ANGELES-NL (99-66) at (912) SAN DIEGO (97-70)
Stat: Dylan Cease not great in postseason (3 appearances, 6.0 IP, 12.00 ERA, 5 BB)
System Match: FADE SAN DIEGO (-142 vs. LAD)

Old Post 10-09-24 11:04 PM
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