The Leading Logic In Sports Handicapping |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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Tennis Lagniappe 7/20
Quentin Halys vs. Jan-Lennard Struff – Gstaad
Rafael Nadal vs. Duje Ajdukovic – Bastad
In a two-leg parlay for Saturday’s tennis action, I’m taking Struff to handle his business against Halys. These are two players that can absolutely blast serves, and breaks will be hard to come by here. I know this is a clay-court event, but it’s a tournament that is played at altitude. So, these are really good conditions for the server. But the difference here is that Struff breaks at 22.6% on clay over the last 52 weeks, while Halys is all the way down at 16.1%. I just don’t think the Frenchman is going to put any pressure on Struff’s serve, but I can see the German getting to Halys a bit. And even if he can’t, I think Struff’s better all-around game will give him an edge in tiebreakers.
For the second play in this parlay, I’m sticking with Nadal in Bastad. The Spaniard’s win over Mariano Navone was really ugly, but that was a tough clay-court opponent. Ajdukovic shouldn’t be able to do as much to frustrate Nadal. Ajdukovic’s backhand is definitely going to give Nadal some problems, but the Spaniard should be able to control this thing by peppering the 23-year-old’s forehand side. I also don’t think Ajdukovic is a good enough server to get by Nadal. The return game is somewhere Nadal really showed up against Navone, and he should do the same against Ajdukovic. And I don’t see Ajdukovic doing as much damage against Nadal’s serve. Navone is one of the best clay-court returners in the world. The only concern here is how Nadal’s body responds to a four-hour match. One day of rest is rough. However, he did say that he felt good after the match. He also knows the importance of getting a full week of matches in. He’s trying to find his rhythm before the Olympic Games.
PARLAY: Struff ML + Nadal ML (-136)
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07-20-24 09:18 AM |
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