Cubs (46-51) @ St Louis (50-45)
Taillon is 3-1, 3.12 in his last four starts.
Chicago is 2-5 in his road starts.
under 4-3 road starts
allowed run in first inning: 4-15
record in first 5 innings: 8-7
He is 5-2, 3.36 in 14 starts vs St Louis.
Cubs are 7-3 in their last ten games.
Theyre 21-30 on road.
under 6-3 last nine games
scored run in first inning: 21-97
record in first 5 innings: 38-43-16
bullpen IP last 3 days: 2-2-9.2
Mikolas is 1-0, 1.46 in his last two starts.
St Louis is 7-4 in his last 11 starts.
over 3-1 last four
allowed run in first inning: 5-19
record in first 5 innings: 5-12-2
He is 6-4, 2.62 in 19 starts vs Chicago.
Cardinals are 8-5 in their last 13 games.
Theyre 26-21 at home.
over 11-5 last 16 games
scored run in first inning: 19-95
record in first 5 innings: 35-45-15
bullpen IP last 3 days: x-2-8
Colorado (33-63) @ NY Mets (49-45)
Marquez is making his first 2024 start.
LY, he was 2-2, 4.95 in four starts, before he got hurt.
In his career, he is 65-56, 4.41 in 173 starts.
He is 4-2, 3.27 in seven starts vs New York.
Rockies lost six of last seven games.
Theyre 13-36 on road.
over 5-0 last five games
scored run in first inning: 25-96
record in first 5 innings: 38-47-11
bullpen IP last 3 days: 3-5-4.1
Quintana is 3-0, 1.19 in his last five starts.
Mets are 5-1 in his last six starts.
over 3-1 last four
allowed run in first inning: 6-18
record in first 5 innings: 7-8-3
He is 3-3, 5.09 in eight starts vs Colorado.
New York is 7-1 in its last eight games.
Mets are 26-25 at home.
over 9-2 last 11 home games
scored run in first inning: 25-94
record in first 5 innings: 41-38-15
bullpen IP last 3 days: 3-2-4.2
Miami (32-63) @ Cincinnati (46-50)
Rogers is 0-2, 3.34 in his last six starts.
Marlins are 3-15 in his starts.
under 4-1 last five road starts
allowed run in first inning: 5-18
record in first 5 innings: 3-13-2
He gave up six runs in 3.2 IP, in his one start vs Cincinnati.
Marlins are 3-11 in their last 14 games.
Miami is 14-32 on road.
over 9-3 last dozen games.
scored run in first inning: 22-95
record in first 5 innings: 27-58-10
bullpen IP last 3 days: 1.1-2.1-5.2
Lodolo is 2-1, 4.64 in his last four starts.
Reds are 6-2 in his home starts.
under 6-2 last eight
allowed run in first inning: 5-13
record in first 5 innings: 7-5-1
He gave up 2 unearned runs in 6 IP, in his one start vs Miami.
Reds are 5-1 in their last six games.
Theyre 25-27 at home.
over 5-1 last six games
scored run in first inning: 25-96
record in first 5 innings: 43-41-12
bullpen IP last 3 days: 3-2-5.2
Washington (44-52) @ Milwaukee (54-42)
Irvin is 2-1, 2.77 in his last four starts.
Washington is 6-2 in his last eight starts
under 9-3 last 12 starts
allowed run in first inning: 6-19
record in first 5 innings: 6-9-4
He is 0-1, 5.40 in two starts vs Milwaukee
Nationals are 9-16 in their last 25 games.
Theyre 24-28 on road.
under 4-2 last six games
scored run in first inning: 15-96
record in first 5 innings: 40-48-8
bullpen IP last 3 days: 3.2-4.1-8.1
Rea is 4-1, 4.54 in his last six starts.
Milwaukee is 7-2 in his home starts
under 4-2 last six
allowed run in first inning: 6-16
record in first 5 innings: 8-5-3
He gave up 2 runs in 6.1 IP, in his one start vs Washington.
Brewers lost seven of last nine games.
Theyre 28-17 at home.
over 6-2 last eight home games
scored run in first inning: 25-96
record in first 5 innings: 46-38-12
bullpen IP last 3 days: 2.2-4-6
Atlanta (52-42) @ San Diego (50-48)
Sale is 4-1, 2.08 in his last five starts.
Braves are 12-5 in his starts.
over 5-3 last eight
allowed run in first inning: 7-17
record in first 5 innings: 14-3
He is 3-0, 1.17 in three starts vs San Diego.
Braves won five of last eight games.
Theyre 7-12 in last 19 road games.
under 19-6 last 25 games
scored run in first inning: 26-94
record in first 5 innings: 45-36-13
bullpen IP last 3 days: 2-2-2
Vasquez is 1-0, 1.76 in his last three starts.
Padres are 5-2 in his last seven starts.
over 4-0 last four starts
allowed run in first inning: 7-12
record in first 5 innings: 6-5-1
He is 0-2, 4.82 in two starts vs Atlanta.
Padres lost five of last six games.
Theyre 26-27 at home.
over 14-6 last 20 games
scored run in first inning: 28-98
record in first 5 innings: 40-43-15
bullpen IP last 3 days: x-2-3
Cleveland (58-36) @ Tampa Bay (47-48)
Lively is 1-1, 5.71 in his last three starts.
Cleveland is 10-5 in his starts.
over 4-1 last five
allowed run in first inning: 1-15
record in first 5 innings: 10-3-2
He gave up 3 runs in 4 IP, in his one start vs Tampa Bay.
Cleveland lost four of last six games.
Guardians are 3-8 in last 11 road games.
over 10-5 last 15 games
scored run in first inning: 26-94
record in first 5 innings: 45-36-13
bullpen IP last 3 days: 5-3-4
Pepiot is 1-1, 2.95 in his last four starts.
Rays are 4-6 in his home starts.
over 7-3 last ten
allowed run in first inning: 6-16
record in first 5 innings: 7-8-1
This is his first start vs Cleveland.
Tampa Bay is 3-2 in its last five games.
Rays are 26-27 at home.
under 3-1 last four games.
scored run in first inning: 25-95
record in first 5 innings: 33-47-15
bullpen IP last 3 days: 4.2-2-3
Bronx (58-39) @ Baltimore (57-38)
Rodon is 0-5, 10.96 in his last five starts.
New York is 7-5 in his road starts.
over 11-3 last 14 starts
allowed run in first inning: 9-19
record in first 5 innings: 9-8-2
He is 0-3, 5.74 in five starts vs Baltimore.
New York is 9-19 in its last 28 games.
Theyre 33-20 on road.
over 17-8 last 25 games
scored run in first inning: 33-97
record in first 5 innings: 51-34-12
bullpen IP last 3 days: 3.2-3-3
Kremer is 1-3, 8.68 in his last four starts.
Orioles are 5-6 in his starts.
over 8-3
allowed run in first inning: 1-11
record in first 5 innings: 5-5-1
He is 3-3, 4.70 in ten starts vs New York.
Baltimore is 1-6 in its last seven games.
Orioles scored 2 runs in last 38 innings.
Orioles are 29-22 at home.
under 4-0 last four games
scored run in first inning: 21-95
record in first 5 innings: 50-34-11
bullpen IP last 3 days: 4-3.2-4
Kansas City (52-44) @ Boston (52-42)
Singer is 1-1, 1.48 in his last four starts.
Royals are 11-7 in his starts.
over 7-4 last 11
allowed run in first inning: 3-18
record in first 5 innings: 6-9-3
He is 2-0, 2.13 in two starts vs Boston.
Royals won four of last five games.
Royals are 5-8 in last 13 road games.
over 3-2 last five games
scored run in first inning: 24-96
record in first 5 innings: 44-38-14
bullpen IP last 3 days: x-2-3
Bello is 3-1, 6.64 in his last four starts.
Red Sox are 10-6 in his starts.
over 7-3 last 10
allowed run in first inning: 5-16
record in first 5 innings: 10-6
He gave up a run in 6.2 IP, in his one start vs Kansas City
Red Sox won nine of last 12 games.
Theyre 23-25 at home.
under 4-0 last four games
scored run in first inning: 28-94
record in first 5 innings: 49-35-10
bullpen IP last 3 days: 3-3-2
Texas (45-50) @ Houston (50-45)
Scherzer is 1-2, 3.47 in four starts.
Texas is 2-2 in his starts.
under 3-1
allowed run in first inning: 0-4
record in first 5 innings: 1-2-1
He is 5-2, 3.84 in nine starts vs Houston
Rangers are 6-2 in last eight games.
Theyre 21-29 on road.
over 9-4 last 13 road games
scored run in first inning: 31-95
record in first 5 innings: 40-39-16
bullpen IP last 3 days: 3-3-3
Blanco is 4-1, 2.84 in his last six starts.
Houston is 13-4 in his starts.
under 13-4
allowed run in first inning: 6-17
record in first 5 innings: 10-4-3
He is 2-0, 3.10 in three starts vs Texas.
Houston won 17 of last 22 games.
Astros are 28-20 at home.
over 10-5 last 15 games
scored run in first inning: 32-95
record in first 5 innings: 45-38-12
bullpen IP last 3 days: 5-3-4
Seattle (52-45) @ LA Angels (40-55)
Gilbert is 3-1, 2.25 in his last five starts.
Seattle is 5-1 in his last six starts
under 6-3 last nine
allowed run in first inning: 2-19
record in first 5 innings: 9-6-4
He is 4-2, 4.57 in eight starts vs Anaheim.
Seattle is 5-4 in its last nine games.
Mariners are 22-27 on road.
over 6-3 last nine games
scored run in first inning: 26-97
record in first 5 innings: 42-40-15
bullpen IP last 3 days: 3-6-2
bullpen game
Angels lost nine of last 13 games.
Theyre 21-29 at home.
over 5-1 last six games
scored run in first inning: 22-95
record in first 5 innings: 32-54-9
bullpen IP last 3 days: 6-4-3
Los Angeles (56-40) @ Detroit (46-50)
Dodgers havent named a starter.
Dodgers are 5-9 in their last 14 games.
Dodgers are 28-21 on road.
over 10-4 last 14 games.
scored run in first inning: 34-96
record in first 5 innings: 47-39-10
bullpen IP last 3 days: 3.2-5.1-4.2
bullpen game
Detroit won seven of last nine games.
Tigers are 23-24 at home.
over 10-4 last 14 games
scored run in first inning: 30-96
record in first 5 innings: 39-41-16
bullpen IP last 3 days: 3-3-5
Oakland (36-59) @ Philadelphia (62-33)
Estes is 1-2, 5.51 in his last three starts.
Oakland is 5-6 in his starts.
over 5-3 last eight
allowed run in first inning: 4-11
record in first 5 innings: 5-5-1
He hasnt pitched against Philly.
As are 6-5 in last 11 games.
Oakland is 4-19 in last 23 road games.
under 7-4 last 11 road games
scored run in first inning: 19-96
record in first 5 innings: 32-59-5
bullpen IP last 3 days: 3-6-4.1
bullpen game
Phillies are 8-4 in their last 12 games.
Theyre 37-15 at home.
under 5-2 last seven games
scored run in first inning: 35-95
record in first 5 innings: 60-28-7
bullpen IP last 3 days: 3-3-3
Pittsburgh (47-48) @ White Sox (27-70)
Keller is 2-1, 4.15 in his last four starts.
Pittsburgh is 9-2 in his last 11 starts
over 3-0 last three
allowed run in first inning: 3-18
record in first 5 innings: 10-6-2
He hasnt pitched against Chicago
Pirates are 21-18 in their last 39 games.
Theyre 24-24 on road.
over 3-2 last five games
scored run in first inning: 18-95
record in first 5 innings: 41-36-18
bullpen IP last 3 days: 2-4-3.1
bullpen game
White Sox lost six of last seven games.
Chicago is 17-33 at home
under 6-2 last eight games
scored run in first inning: 18-97
record in first 5 innings: 42-43-12
bullpen IP last 3 days: x-7-3
Toronto (43-51) @ Arizona (49-47)
Kikuchi is 0-3, 6.38 in his last five starts.
Toronto is 2-12 in his last 14 starts.
over 7-2 last nine
allowed run in first inning: 6-19
record in first 5 innings: 7-9-3
He is 0-1, 3.45 in three starts vs Arizona.
Toronto is 10-17 in its last 27 games.
Blue Jays are 22-27 on road.
over 18-6 last 24 games
scored run in first inning: 20-94
record in first 5 innings: 41-42-11
bullpen IP last 3 days: 4-2-4
Gallen is 1-1, 4.70 in his last three starts.
Arizona is 4-3 in his home starts.
under 4-3 home starts.
allowed run in first inning: 3-14
record in first 5 innings: 9-4-1
He gave up 3 runs in 5 IP, in his one start vs Toronto.
Arizona is 10-4 in its last 14 games.
Diamondbacks are 26-23 at home.
over 14-4 last 18 games
scored run in first inning: 31-96
record in first 5 innings: 44-36-16
bullpen IP last 3 days: 3-2-3
Minnesota (54-41) @ San Francisco (46-50)
Paddack is 0-0, 7.50 in his last three starts.
Minnesota is 5-2 in his last seven starts
over 5-1 last six starts
allowed run in first inning: 4-16
record in first 5 innings: 7-8-1
He is 1-1, 3.82 in seven starts vs San Francisco
Twins are 19-9 in their last 28 games.
Twins are 27-23 on road.
over 20-9 last 29 games.
scored run in first inning: 26-95
record in first 5 innings: 41-42-12
bullpen IP last 3 days: x-1.1-4.2
Snell is 0-0, 5.82 in his last four starts.
San Francisco is 3-4 in his starts.
over 6-1
allowed run in first inning: 2-7
record in first 5 innings: 2-4-1
He is 2-2, 5.97 in six starts vs Minnesota.
San Francisco is 10-6 in its last 16 games.
Giants are 27-21 at home.
over 11-4 last 15 home games
scored run in first inning: 21-95
record in first 5 innings: 36-45-14
bullpen IP last 3 days: 4-4.2-3.2
Umpires
Chi-StL- Home favorites are 10-3 in Hoye games.
Col-NY- Road underdogs are 8-3 in Hanahan games.
Mia-Cin- Under is 11-7 in BRMiller games.
Wash-Milw- Road underdogs are 7-5 in Bucknor games
Atl-SD- Road teams are 11-7 in Randazzo games.
NYY-Balt- Over is 10-8 in Emil Jimenez games.
Clev-TB- Over is 9-9 in Carlson games.
KC-Bos- Over is 11-8 in Walsh games.
Tex-Hst- Under is 10-7 in Torres games.
Sea-LAA- Over is 8-7 in Metz games.
LA-Det- Underdogs are 0-9 in Edwin Jimenez games.
Pitt-CWS- Home underdogs are 4-4 in Whitson games.
As-Phil- Road underdogs are 8-4 in Segal games.
Minn-SF- Home teams are 9-4 in Blaser games.
Tor-Ariz- Home favorites are 7-4 in Morales games.
Watch for home teams that didnt record an extra-base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 455-391 (53.8%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +10.72 units, for an ROI of 1.3%.
System Matches (PLAY): HOUSTON (-135 vs TEX)
(901) COLORADO (33-63) at (902) NEW YORK-NL (49-45)
Trend: Jose Quintana is 2-5 (-6.55 units) as a DAY game large favorite (-165 or more) in the last five seasons
System Match: FADE NY METS (-218 vs COL)
(903) MIAMI (32-63) at (904) CINCINNATI (47-49)
Trend: MIA is 11-27 (-11.49 units) on the road with starter Trevor Rogers since 2020
System Match: FADE MIAMI (+150 at CIN)
Trend: MIA is 9-32 (-20.41 units) as an underdog within line range -109 to +154 with Trevor Rogers since 2020
System Match: FADE MIAMI (+150 at CIN)
Trend: CIN is 17-8 (+8.94 units) at HOME with Nick Lodolo
System Match: PLAY CINCINNATI (-180 vs MIA)
(907) CHICAGO-NL (46-51) at (908) ST LOUIS (50-45)
Trend: STL is 9-2 (+5.35 units) in home day games vs CHC/PIT/CIN in the last five seasons with starter Miles Mikolas
System Match: PLAY ST LOUIS (-130 vs CHC)
(911) NEW YORK-AL (58-39) at (912) BALTIMORE (57-38)
Trend: BAL is 25-9 (+13.94 units) in the last 2+ seasons in home games with starter Dean Kremer
System Match: PLAY BALTIMORE (-105 vs NYY)
Trend: BAL is 11-1 (+10.94 units) in Divisional Games with starter Dean Kremer in the last two seasons
System Match: PLAY BALTIMORE (-105 vs NYY)
(917) TEXAS (45-50) at (918) HOUSTON (50-45)
Trend: Max Scherzer is 11-8 (+4.98 units) as an underdog in the last five seasons
System Match: PLAY TEXAS (+114 at HOU)
Trend: Max Scherzer is 19-5 (+10.35 units) in the last 24 DAY games starts
System Match: PLAY TEXAS (+114 at HOU)
(929) TORONTO (43-52) at (930) ARIZONA (49-47)
Trend: Yusei Kikuchi is 15-8 (+12.64 units) as a day game underdog of +105 or more in career
System Match: PLAY TORONTO (+124 at AZ)