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msudogs
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MLB Lagniappe 6/18

St Louis (36-35) @ Miami (23-49)
— Lynn is 0-0, 8.03 in his last three starts.
— St Louis is 3-4 in his road starts.
— under 4-1 last five
— allowed run in first inning: 4-14
— record in first 5 innings: 1-9-4
— He is 4-3, 5.68 in nine starts vs Miami.

— Cardinals are 8-4 in their last 12 games.
— They’re 19-20 on road.
— under 16-5 last 21 games
— scored run in first inning: 14-71
— record in first 5 innings: 23-36-12
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 4.2-2.2-4.1

— Munoz is 1-2, 4.56 in five starts.
— Miami is 1-4 in his starts.
— under 4-1
— allowed run in first inning: 3-5
— record in first 5 innings: 3-2
— He hasn’t pitched against St Louis.

— Marlins lost 14 of their last 18 games.
— Miami is 12-26 at home.
— under 6-4 last ten games.
— scored run in first inning: 15-72
— record in first 5 innings: 24-39-9
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 1-3-6

Old Post 06-18-24 08:38 AM
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Cincinnati (34-38) @ Pittsburgh (35-37)
— Lodolo is 4-0, 2.28 in his last four starts.
— Reds are 8-2 in his starts.
— under 8-2
— allowed run in first inning: 5-10
— record in first 5 innings: 5-4-1
— He is 1-1, 3.97 in two starts vs Pittsburgh

— Reds lost their last three games.
— They’re 16-19 on road.
— under 9-2 last 11 games
— scored run in first inning: 21-72
— record in first 5 innings: 28-33-11
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 3-3-2

— Falter is 0-2, 5.14 in his last three starts.
— Pittsburgh 3-7 in his last 10 starts.
— over 5-1 at home
— allowed run in first inning: 4-13
— record in first 5 innings: 5-7-1
— He is 0-1, 7.79 in three starts against the Reds

— Pirates won three of last four games.
— They’re 17-17 at home.
— under 8-2 last ten games
— scored run in first inning: 15-72
— record in first 5 innings: 32-29-11
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 3.1-5-3

Old Post 06-18-24 08:38 AM
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San Diego (37-39) @ Philadelphia (48-24)
— King is 2-0, 2.17 in his last five starts.
— Padres are 6-2 in his last eight starts.
— over 7-3 last ten
— allowed run in first inning: 2-14
— record in first 5 innings: 7-4-3
— He is 0-1, 8.10 in 2 games (1 start) vs Philly.

— Padres lost their last four games.
— They’re 19-18 on road.
— under 6-2 last eight road games
— scored run in first inning: 24-76
— record in first 5 innings: 30-33-13
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 4.1-4.1-3.2

— Nola is 4-1, 3.69 in his last six starts.
— Phillies are 11-3 in his starts.
— under 4-1 last five home starts
— allowed run in first inning: 3-14
— record in first 5 innings: 8-3-3
— He is 3-4, 3.14 in nine starts vs San Diego.

— Phillies are 2-4 in their six games.
— They’re 28-10 at home.
— over 5-1 last six games
— scored run in first inning: 27-72
— record in first 5 innings: 46-20-6
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 2.1-3.1-2

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Arizona (35-37) @ Washington (35-36)
— Cecconi is 0-3, 8.87 in his last five starts.
— Arizona is 4-4 in his starts
— under 5-3
— allowed run in first inning: 1-8
— record in first 5 innings: 1-5-2
— He hasn’t pitched against Washington.

— Arizona is 10-5 in its last 15 games.
— Diamondbacks are 16-19 on road.
— Arizona is 2-9 in road series openers.
— over 13-3 last 16 games
— scored run in first inning: 23-72
— record in first 5 innings: 32-28-12
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 5-4-x

— Irvin is 3-0, 1.13 in his last four starts.
— Washington is 1-4 in his home starts.
— under 6-1 last seven
— allowed run in first inning: 4-14
— record in first 5 innings: 5-6-3
— He is 0-1, 3.60 in two starts vs Arizona.

— Nationals won eight of their last nine games.
— They’re 16-17 at home.
— Washington is 4-6 in home series openers.
— over 13-6 last 19 games
— scored run in first inning: 11-71
— record in first 5 innings: 31-33-7
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 2-3-3

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San Francisco (36-37) @ Cubs (34-39)
— Webb is 2-1, 3.33 in his last four starts.
— Giants are 2-6 in his road starts.
— under 7-4 last 11 starts
— allowed run in first inning: 5-15
— record in first 5 innings: 7-6-2
— He is 2-1, 4.58 in three starts against the Cubs

— San Francisco is 7-4 in its last 11 games.
— Giants are 16-20 on road.
— over 11-4 last 15 road games
— scored run in first inning: 14-73
— record in first 5 innings: 28-35-10
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 3-9-4

— Steele is 0-1, 2.88 in his last four starts.
— Chicago is 1-8 in his starts.
— over 3-1 home starts
— allowed run in first inning: 1-9
— record in first 5 innings: 1-4-4
— He is 1-2, 2.16 in three starts vs San Francisco.

— Cubs are 3-8 in their last 11 games.
— They’re 19-16 at home.
— under 9-1 last ten games
— scored run in first inning: 15-73
— record in first 5 innings: 26-33-14
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 2-3-4

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Los Angeles (45-29) @ Colorado (25-47)
— Buehler is 0-3, 6.41 in his last four starts.
— Dodgers are 3-4 in his starts.
— under 5-2
— allowed run in first inning: 3-7
— record in first 5 innings: 3-4
— He is 7-3, 4.19 in 17 starts vs Colorado.

— Dodgers are 7-4 in their last 11 games.
— Dodgers are 21-14 on road.
— under 4-2 last six games.
— scored run in first inning: 26-74
— record in first 5 innings: 38-29-7
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 7-2-2

— Gomber is 0-2, 7.58 in his last four starts.
— Colorado is 3-7 in his last ten starts.
— under 8-3 last 11
— allowed run in first inning: 8-13
— record in first 5 innings: 6-4-3
— He is 0-4, 6.00 in seven starts vs Los Angeles.

— Rockies lost 12 of last 16 games.
— They’re 14-20 at home.
— over 7-3 last ten home games
— scored run in first inning: 22-72
— record in first 5 innings: 27-34-11
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 3.1-3.1-4

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Detroit (34-38) @ Atlanta (39-31)
— Mize is 0-1, 4.38 in his last four starts.
— Detroit is 8-5 in his starts.
— over 7-2 last nine starts.
— allowed run in first inning: 6-13
— record in first 5 innings: 4-8-1
— He hasn’t pitched against Atlanta.

— Detroit is 3-7 in its last ten games.
— Tigers are 18-19 on road.
— over 8-3 last 11 games
— scored run in first inning: 22-72
— record in first 5 innings: 29-30-13
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 4-3-2

— Schwellenbach is 0-2, 6.32 in three starts.
— Braves are 0-3 in his starts.
— under 2-1
— allowed run in first inning: 0-3
— record in first 5 innings: 0-3
— He hasn’t pitched against Detroit.

— Braves won three of last five games.
— They’re 21-14 at home.
— over 4-1 last five games
— scored run in first inning: 19-70
— record in first 5 innings: 34-26-10
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 3-5.2-3.2

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NY Mets (34-37) @ Texas (33-39)
— Severino is 2-0, 2.77 in his last four starts.
— Mets are 1-4 in his road starts.
— over 4-1 last five
— allowed run in first inning: 2-13
— record in first 5 innings: 9-2-2
— He is 2-2, 2.89 in five starts vs Texas.

— New York is 12-4 in its last 16 games.
— Mets are 16-14 on road.
— under 4-3 last seven games
— scored run in first inning: 21-71
— record in first 5 innings: 30-30-11
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 3-4-3

— Lorenzen is 2-1, 1.46 in his last six starts.
— Texas is 4-7 in his starts.
— under 6-0 last six
— allowed run in first inning: 2-11
— record in first 5 innings: 6-2-3
— He is 2-1, 2.29 in 15 games (3 starts) vs New York.

— Rangers are 4-9 in their last 13 games.
— They’re 16-18 at home.
— under 19-7 last 26 games
— scored run in first inning: 23-72
— record in first 5 innings: 29-31-12
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 5-3.1-6

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Milwaukee (42-30) @ LA Angels (29-43)
— Myers is 2-2, 3.86 in eight games.
— Milwaukee is 4-4 in his starts.
— over 6-2
— allowed run in first inning: 4-8
— record in first 5 innings: 2-4-2
— He hasn’t pitched against the Angels.

— Brewers are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
— They’re 20-18 on road.
— under 5-2 last seven games
— scored run in first inning: 18-72
— record in first 5 innings: 34-30-8
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 3.2-3-3.1

— Soriano is 3-1, 3.00 in his last six starts.
— Angels are 5-3 in his last eight starts.
— under 3-2 home starts
— allowed run in first inning: 3-12
— record in first 5 innings: 5-6-1
— He hasn’t pitched against Milwaukee

— Angels are 8-5 in their last 13 games.
— They’re 12-23 at home.
— over 6-2 last eight games
— scored run in first inning: 18-72
— record in first 5 innings: 26-40-6
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 4-6-3

Old Post 06-18-24 08:42 AM
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(901) CINCINNATI (34-38) at (902) PITTSBURGH (35-37)
Trend: PIT trending Over vs. LH starters (17-7 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 8)

(905) SAN DIEGO (37-39) at (906) PHILADELPHIA (48-24)
Trend: PHI great vs. RH starters (30-12, +13.08 units)
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (-142 vs SD)

(907) ARIZONA (35-37) at (908) WASHINGTON (35-36)
Trend: AZ not as good at night (21-28, -10.93 units)
System Match: FADE ARIZONA (-102 at WSH)

(909) SAN FRANCISCO (36-37) at (910) CHICAGO-NL (34-39)
Trend: SF not as good at night (16-25, -13.19 units)
System Match: FADE SAN FRANCISCO (-108 at CHC)

(911) LOS ANGELES-NL (45-29) at (912) COLORADO (25-47)
Trend: LAD better vs. LH starters (19-7, +2.40 units)
System Match: PLAY LA DODGERS (-180 at COL)

(913) SEATTLE (43-31) at (914) CLEVELAND (44-25)
Trend: CLE good so far vs. AL East/West (23-12, +10.72 units)
System Match: PLAY CLEVELAND (-125 vs SEA)

Old Post 06-18-24 10:20 PM
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(915) BALTIMORE (47-24) at (916) NEW YORK-AL (50-24)
Trend: NYY good vs. RH starters (41-18, +17.98 units)
System Match: PLAY NY YANKEES (-155 vs BAL)

(917) BOSTON (38-35) at (918) TORONTO (35-37)
Trend: TOR bad as home underdog (1-6 record)
System Match: FADE TORONTO (+100 vs BOS)

(919) TAMPA BAY (34-38) at (920) MINNESOTA (40-32)
Trend: TB not great bet vs. RH starters (22-31, -16.62 units)
System Match: FADE TAMPA BAY (+140 at MIN)

(921) HOUSTON (33-39) at (922) CHICAGO-AL (19-54)
Trend: HOU trending Under on the road (11-20 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 9)

(923) KANSAS CITY (41-32) at (924) OAKLAND (26-48)
Trend: OAK not good vs. AL Central/East (9-24, -8.76 units)
System Match: FADE OAKLAND (+105 vs KC)

(925) DETROIT (34-38) at (926) ATLANTA (39-31)
Trend: DET trending Over vs. RH starters (33-21 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 9)

(927) NEW YORK-NL (34-37) at (928) TEXAS (33-39)
Trend: TEX trending Under in interleague play (10-18 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8.5)

(929) MILWAUKEE (42-30) at (930) LOS ANGELES-AL (29-43)
Trend: LAA bad vs. RH starters (21-36, -10.98 units)
System Match: FADE LA ANGELS (+120 vs MIL)

Old Post 06-18-24 10:20 PM
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(901) CINCINNATI (34-38) at (902) PITTSBURGH (35-37)
Trend: Bailey Falter is 8-3 (+5.05 units) as a home night starter in the last two seasons
System Match: PLAY PITTSBURGH (+105 vs CIN)

(905) SAN DIEGO (37-39) at (906) PHILADELPHIA (48-24)
Trend: Aaron Nola is just 1-4 (-3.95 units) vs San Diego in the last five seasons
System Match: FADE PHILADELPHIA (-142 vs SD)

(911) LOS ANGELES-NL (45-29) at (912) COLORADO (25-47)
Trend: Walker Buehler has dominated lesser competition, going 20-3 (+12.70 units) against teams with a < 40% win pct since 2019
System Match: PLAY LA DODGERS (-180 at COL)

Trend: Walker Buehler is 33-12 (+8.80 units) against Divisional competition since 2019
System Match: PLAY LA DODGERS (-180 at COL)

(913) SEATTLE (43-31) at (914) CLEVELAND (44-25)
Trend: Bryce Miller was 5-1 (+4.05 units) vs. AL Central last season (1-0, +1.00 unit this season)
System Match: PLAY SEATTLE (+105 at CLE)

(917) BOSTON (38-35) at (918) TORONTO (35-37)
Trend: BOS is 3-12 (-9.55 units) in the -120 to +100 line range by starter Tanner Houck
System Match: FADE BOSTON (-120 at TOR)

(919) TAMPA BAY (34-38) at (920) MINNESOTA (40-32)
Trend: Pablo Lopez is 0-5 (-5.30 units) vs Tampa Bay in the last five seasons
System Match: FADE MINNESOTA (-166 vs TB)

(927) NEW YORK-NL (34-37) at (928) TEXAS (33-39)
Trend: Luis Severino is 20-6 (+13.55 units) against teams with a losing record in the last two seasons
System Match: PLAY NY METS (-110 at TEX)

Old Post 06-18-24 10:28 PM
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Series #11: Cincinnati at Pittsburgh, Mon 6/17-Wed 6/19
Trend: Cincinnati is 2-9 (18.2%, -7.2 units) in last 11 games at Pittsburgh
– The ROI on this trend is -65.5%
System Matches: FADE CINCINNATI (-125 at PIT)

Series #22: Detroit at Atlanta, Mon 6/17-Wed 6/19
Trend: Over the total is 6-1 (85.7%, +5 units) in the last seven games between Detroit and Atlanta
– The ROI on this trend is 71.4%
System Matches: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 9)

Old Post 06-18-24 11:34 PM
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