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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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Week 8 wastes no time to show off its marquee matchup as Liverpool host Manchester United in the opening game of the week (nice 4:30 am start for those on the West Coast). Last year, Manchester United were a draw bettor’s dream (15 of 38 matches), but have only drawn once so far this season. Liverpool opened as the slight +152 favorites in this one but have drifted out to +172 as they’re getting just a small portion of public betting tickets. The huge majority of bets has come in on Man United, moving their odds from +186 to +175, which doesn’t come as a huge surprise since they’re usually well-supported. If this game wasn’t being played after an International Break, I’d probably be laying off, but I do think there’s value on the home side now. This match is attracting way more tickets than any other match, so the public is actually creating value on the other side due to the big line movement. Take Liverpool +172 to win at home and shake up the EPL table a bit.
The other value play I like for this weekend is the draw between Huddersfield and Swansea at +220 odds. Lots of factors hit the spot for me here: low total of just 2 goals, public action avoiding the draw, reverse-line movement on the draw, etc. Swansea are getting nearly 70% of moneyline tickets to win at home but the line has barely moved in their favor, so we’ve clearly seen some sharp money hit the draw here.
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10-14-17 12:52 AM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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Always highly anticipated, often living up to the hype.
Last season, leading into this fixture, Liverpool were absolutely flying. The Red Devils not so much, so Jose Mourinho parked the bus (no surprise there, actually).
This season though, its a whole different story. The Media, pundits, analysts, statisticians, commentators( and the referees), all believe that this is the year that Mourinho will bring United back to the pinnacle of English Football. It would be hard to disagree on current form and their closest real title challengers this season seems to be their baby blue neighbours.
United have hit the ground running in the league and are scoring for fun. Their fans have even stopped booing Marouane Fellaini and Phil Jones is a mainstay in a defence which has been rock solid thus far. Lukaku has fitted in perfectly and grabs a goal a game. Matic the newly purchased glue keeping it all together and a brilliant acquisition to boot. The only slight that can really be thrown in their direction currently is the fact that they’ve yet to face a real test, having had a relatively easy open run. Liverpool, have played Manchester City and Arsenal already.
Mourinho knows he heads into this game with his team in better form, and will look to exploit the defensive weaknesses of Klopp’s team. This might suit Klopp as his team tend to play better against teams that come to play attacking football.
Jose will be silently hoping his team will continue from where they left off before the international break, Jurgen on the other hand will be praying that his players left their wretched form away on country duty.
The worst of news greeted Liverpool fans on Tuesday afternoon – Sadio Mane had been injured on international duty and is set for a lengthy spell on the sidelines. Undoubtedly, he would’ve been the key to the Reds attack. Klopp will have to shift things again but should be able to cope. It offers the chance for Oxlade Chamberlain to prove he isnt a flop/panic buy. Having not had the best of “settling in” periods thus far, all of that negativity can be erased with a heroic performance on Saturday.
One man who has settled in brilliantly to life in Merseyside is newly crowned King of Egypt, Mohamed Salah. He’s been banging in the goals (albeit missing quite a few too it must be said).
Helping his country qualify for the World Cup in Russia Next year will no doubt see him entering the clash in a positive frame of mind. Emre Can is another who will be looking to use good performances for his country to lift his game for Liverpool. He hasn’t been in the best of form this season, and with prolonged contract negotiations seemingly not bearing fruition, that thumper of a goal for Germany will no doubt lift his spirits. Wijnaldum and Jordan Henderson, his central midfield partners need to step up too. This is a match where passengers will be exposed, and they haven’t covered themselves in any glory this tenure. Phil Coutinho and Roberto Firmino remain a concern heading into this game. Both players arrive fairly late on Thursday leaving little time for recuperation and adapting to Klopp’s game plan. But they are quality and will probably play a big part in the outcome of the match.
Such has been United’s form that even players on the periphery have shown top quality when given the opportunity. Anthony Martial, often deemed to not be in Mourinho’s good books, has been consistently good. Marcus Rashford’s star continues to shine. Fellaini, much maligned and seen as the Jordan Henderson of United (dividing opinion amongst the fanbase) has single handedly won games for the Devils. Ashley Young has traded in his diving boots and now wears the one’s from his Aston Villa days – The one’s that allow him to whip in devilish crosses [allowing Lukaku to score with ease].
Jurgen Klopp will do well to motivate his almost non existent defense to improve drastically come Saturday. Sadly for him, It’s no longer a question IF they will concede, but rather WHEN.
Operation Score-more-than-you-concede is on the cards. A cracker of a game, a messy game of chess, a bruising battle. It’s going to be epic.
Heck, it always is.
Who will be the hero on Saturday ?
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10-14-17 12:54 AM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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It’s that time of the year again. Liverpool at Anfield – it does not come much bigger than that, for Manchester United in the Premier League.
The media love it, the fans dread it but look forward to it at the same time, it’s a fixture that is steeped in history and a fierce rivalry that has almost defined two of the most culturally significant cities in the North of England. With that comes a suspicion, that has always existed between both sets of supporters no matter where they are in the league.
That said, there is a rather strange build up to Saturday’s encounter, the 199th meeting between the two sides in all competitions – in fact there has been very little of it, going against the general trend. Social media, surprisingly, is not filled with special hashtags and Sky montages with endless reels of goals from the vault, dramatic sending offs, failed handshakes and pre-match soundbites and in recent years, the Neville and Carragher show.
It almost begs the question as to whether Liverpool and Manchester United are playing each other – too early (again) to have any kind of lasting impact on the Premier League’s top end? Probably they are.
However, that does little to take away the fact that Manchester United going to Liverpool is one of the great stories in the Premier League; not just loved by the media for the drama it can produce, but also arguably the neutral’s favourite – with the two most successful football clubs going head-on against each other and usually it’s just two very good football teams playing against each other with a bit of bite.
But for many years, the allure of Liverpool versus Man United has been the strange idea that they never really enjoyed success quite at the same time; bar the heady days of Benitez’s Liverpool spearheaded by Fernando Torres threatening to usurp the throne – the Reds from Merseyside never really came close enough to sufficiently rattle Manchester United’s grip on the Premier League crown they would three times on the bounce between 2006 and 2009 – even as much Chelsea did in the same period, or Arsenal, going further back.
Before 1992, funnily enough football did exist and the shoes were firmly on Liverpool’s feet. It was a time when Liverpool as a city danced to the beat of the Beatles, taking the whole wide world by storm.
And their football teams were no less influential as they wiped the floor with everyone else on the pitch. Liverpool were the team to beat, alongside Everton, as Merseyside dominated much of the domestic football in the 80’s as the Reds racked up the trophies – year after year, leaving Manchester United, certainly the most popular football club in the land even then, if not the biggest, in their wake.
But the times are changing now. Liverpool and Manchester United are at last on a par – there is a strange parity between the two sides which, given its rarity after all these years, should be enjoyed in my opinion. Both sides look capable of posing a strong challenge for the league title as much as they do of collapsing into abject mediocrity – with Man United slightly ahead in their development, as they set to step into Anfield in their best form in recent months.
For Manchester United, a setback against the first team they face in the top half of the table, would raise doubts again as to how far they can go – which is the last thing they need at this stage of the season, when confidence and momentum comfortably win the race of the buzzwords.
While Liverpool find themselves wounded, still trying to find their feet at the back, quite literally – their pride hurt after being handed a comprehensive defeat at the hands of Manchester City, now looking to avenge that result by getting one over their biggest rivals from Manchester.
For the home side, a loss would further damage their hopes of ending a title drought that has stretched across three generations of fans.
They are meeting each other at a strange time in the Premier League indeed.
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10-14-17 10:08 AM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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Following a period of football nothingness, the Premier League is back to fill the void as Watford welcome Arsenal on Saturday for match-day eight.
Watford have enjoyed a good start to their season – 3 wins and 3 draws in seven outings barring the one comprehensive defeat at the hands of Manchester City looks very impressive in the face of some really poor starts made by the likes of Everton and Southampton. Marco Silva has shown with Hull how solid his teams could be in midfield and at the back, particularly at home – and should things go his way, Vicarage Road is expected to see some big results in the coming weeks. It will be interesting to see how he sets up against an Arsenal – who look to have found their groove.
Arsenal, after a typically mediocre opening couple of weeks, including the defeats to Liverpool and Stoke City, do seem to have found their feet this season. The Gunners went unbeaten in a hugely positive September – when they also managed to keep four clean sheets in the Premier League. For a side that often comes under criticism for being leaky at the back, this should provide a timely boost of confidence.
But now is the time to gain some steam ahead of a hectic December, if they were to stay in the hunt for the title in what looks like a three-way race so far. They are without a defeat in seven games in all competitions, and also face a favourable fixture list in the next few weeks.
Can they get their first away win in the league on Saturday?
TEAM NEWS
Silva must make a decision over Andre Carrillo, who represented Peru on Tuesday night, and Sebastian Prodl who is carrying a hamstring problem. However, defender Younes Kaboul is absent, while Isaac Success is out until December after sustaining a knee injury.
For Arsenal, center-half Shkodran Mustafi is facing six weeks out – after the defender suffered an injury to his thigh. Sanchez could start on the bench after his mid-week exertions with Chile but the squad will be bolstered by the return of Koscielny and Welbeck – with the duo in contention to feature at Vicarage Road.
INTERESTING NUMBERS
Watford are the only team to have beaten Arsenal in the FA Cup since 2014. The Gunners have won three of the last four editions of the competition but lost to Watford in March 2016 in the sixth round at the Emirates.
There has only ever been one draw between these two clubs in the 26 previous meetings before this encounter. This came back in December 1984 when they played out a 1-1 draw at Highbury.
Spanish defensive duo Hector Bellerin and Nacho Monreal are the only two outfield players to have played every minute of Arsenal’s Premier League campaign so far.
PREDICTION
Arsenal to nick this one at the tail-end of the match.
Watford 0-1 Arsenal
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10-14-17 10:12 AM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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The International break: A chance to regroup?
It feels as if Liverpool’s season has already hit a crossroads. Another string of losses similar to that of recent memory and their chances of challenging for the title this year will be all but over. A winning run starting with high-flyers Manchester United and Jurgen Klopp’s men can begin to close the seven-point gap currently between them and the Manchester clubs.
Liverpool have won just one of their last four, whilst Manchester United have won five of their last six. Based on form, there can really only be one favourite at Anfield on Saturday.
It must be noted that United’s only stumble in the Premier League this season came straight after the last International break; a 2-2 draw against Stoke.
When teams are in form a gap in games can often derail their momentum. This weekend may be the perfect time for Liverpool to play the Red Devils, as Jurgen Klopp’s men will be looking to catch them napping.
Meanwhile, Liverpool would have had a chance to regroup and reconsider their approach after a difficult run. If anything, it feels as though the International break came at just the right time for them.
However, it was the last international break that began Liverpool’s uninspiring run, beginning with their 5-0 embarrassment at the hands of United’s Manchester neighbours. Can Liverpool make the most of the International break and begin to climb up the table?
Liverpool vs. Manchester United betting: The importance of set-pieces
Often a towering header from a strong centre-back who has marauded forward for a corner isn’t given the credit as a “well-worked” one-touch passing goal is given, but the importance of set-pieces cannot be understated.
Jurgen Klopp has recently come under scrutiny on the way his side deals with set-pieces. Liverpool has conceded three goals from set-pieces in the Premier League this season; only Leicester have conceded more.
Meanwhile, Manchester United have scored six goals from set-pieces so far this season; a league-high. In their ranks they have four of the top ten tallest players in the Premier League this season, including the likes of Marouane Fellaini and Nemanja Matic.
In their last outing, the Manchester United starting XI stood at an average of 184.2cms tall, in comparison to Liverpool’s 181.9 against Newcastle.
Set-pieces, like so many times recently, will likely be one of Liverpool’s downfalls on Saturday. A weakness that Jose Mourinho has on countless occasions come up against and on more times than not used to his advantage.
Liverpool vs. Manchester United betting: Quality chances
Surprisingly, Liverpool (8.4) have conceded less shots per game than Manchester United (8.9) in the Premier League despite conceding 10 more goals. In fact, only Manchester City have conceded less shots on their goal than Liverpool this season.
However, it is not the quantity of chances that Liverpool are giving to opposition’s attacks but the quality of those chances that is hindering their progress.
Of those shots, a league-high of 15% of shots faced come from inside their own six-yard box. Whereas only 6% of shots faced against Manchester United’s goal come from inside their six-yard box.
The likelihood of scoring chances inside the six-yard box is significantly higher than from outside of the box, for example. Although Liverpool may not be conceding a lot of chances, the quality of chances are usually good.
In contrast, 40% of shots against Manchester United come from outside the 18-yard box. The shots that United’s defence face are often from distance, and therefore unlikely to test their goalkeeper David De Gea.
Their expected goals against figures reinstate this point, with Manchester United’s being as low as 0.9 in comparison to Liverpool’s 1.4. Whilst Liverpool have less shots on their goal, the likelihood of the opposition scoring from their chances are significantly higher due to the quality of chances allowed.
Liverpool vs. Manchester United odds: Where is the value?
Despite the immense attacking talent within both United and Liverpool’s ranks, the most recent meetings between the two have been cagey affairs.
The last three meetings have ended in draws, with just four goals being scored. Under 2.5 and 3 stands at 1.813* and may offer value if history offers an insight into Saturday’s proceedings.
Alternatively, the in-form Manchester United may offer potential value with a handicap of 0 odds of 2.030*. If United can find similar form to that before the International break, then a Red Devils win could be on the cards.
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10-14-17 11:31 AM |
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