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jeffdane
StatFox Hall of Famer

Registered: Jan 2003
Posts: 3412

jeffdane logical approach

this was very profitable last season. search for the parameters if you would like.

i started tracking june 1st since most pitchers have enough innings now.

since june 1st:

overall: 11-3 +760
home teams: 6-1 +480
vs 0: 7-1 +590
-130+ ML at home: 4-0

today will be a huge test.

8 games and all but 1 are at home. nobody vs 0.

philadelphia -220
washington -101
st louis -230
arizona -117
lad -167
texas -122
chicago white sox -200

san francisco -132

phl, stl, lad, and cws +400




“Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity.”

Old Post 06-04-10 11:39 PM
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Prime Time
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Registered: Jul 2007
Posts: 2083

Good luck Jeff!




Up front there ought to be a man in black.

Old Post 06-05-10 12:09 AM
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jbrent95
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Registered: Feb 2009
Posts: 1024

BOL, JD

How can I find the parameters?

Old Post 06-05-10 12:48 AM
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jeffdane
StatFox Hall of Famer

Registered: Jan 2003
Posts: 3412

put logical approach in the search box and look for my thread last year

...




“Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity.”

Old Post 06-05-10 01:09 AM
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jeffdane
StatFox Hall of Famer

Registered: Jan 2003
Posts: 3412

june 4th update.

since june 1st:

overall: 18-4 +1,260
home teams: 12-2 +880
vs 0: 7-1 +590
-130+ ML at home: 7-1 +500

today will be a huge test.

8 games and all but 1 are at home. nobody vs 0.

philadelphia -220 winner
washington -101 winner
st louis -230 winner
arizona -117 winner
lad -167 winner
texas -122 winner
chicago white sox -200 loser

san francisco -132 winner


the logical approach website doesnt update until late morning or around noon. it doesnt look like there will a bunch of home games saturday. might be a few road games.




“Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity.”

Old Post 06-05-10 07:23 AM
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ronnie111
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Registered: Feb 2009
Posts: 7085

jeff

never saw that sight before, the pitching stats page is a #'s crunchers little slice of heaven--it can give you a migraine though--thanks for that info--another source to try and beat this game.

Old Post 06-05-10 07:58 AM
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jeffdane
StatFox Hall of Famer

Registered: Jan 2003
Posts: 3412

Saturday hopefuls

Only home team:

Toronto +119 ML (usually favorites are more profitable in this situation.) if u have the better performing pitcher and your at home and your a dog. nyy are highly overrated today or vegas knows whats up.

Road teams: (not as profitable as home teams but have done well in june so far. )

Cincinnati -128 vs. 0
Anaheim -131 vs. 0
Tampa Bay -134 vs. 0
Minnesota -122 vs. 0

Boston -191
Detroit -148

not sure what to do yet with all the roadies. if they perform well today i will be a little more amped about them.




“Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity.”

Old Post 06-05-10 06:20 PM
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The Finesse
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: May 2009
Posts: 1166

Good luck with this.




Finesse is a reference to how cleverly the books move their lines on certain games. To finesse the public into betting the wrong side.

Old Post 06-05-10 06:38 PM
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ChadillacSHSU


Registered: Mar 2010
Posts: 467

<clears throat>

Very interested in further posts pertaining this system. Keep up the good work buddy!




"You need to make a bet on something every day. You might be walking around lucky and not know it."

Old Post 06-06-10 05:22 AM
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jeffdane
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Registered: Jan 2003
Posts: 3412

OK, is it the 24-5 in june or the

13-2 the last 2 days, that has you intrigued? Just kidding, my pleasure to help. Lets just hope it continues to profit.




“Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity.”

Old Post 06-06-10 06:03 AM
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tomla021
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Registered: May 2003
Posts: 1806

I loved log approach ..it was really looking at stats
Gl




'cest la vie'

Old Post 06-06-10 07:10 AM
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jeffdane
StatFox Hall of Famer

Registered: Jan 2003
Posts: 3412

sunday games went 4-2 with a big loss on the cards so only a 0.90 unit day.

since june 1st:

overall: 28-7 +1,825 (35 % ROI)

home teams: 14-4 +785 (27.3 % ROI)

road teams: 14-3 +1,040 (44.5 % ROI)

vs 0: 11-3 +650 (28.6 % ROI)

Underdogs: 5-0 +545 (109 % ROI)

June 7th plays:

Arizona ( -125 to -165: 11-1 +960)
San Francisco "WOOF": (Dogs 5-0 +545)
Seattle (-125 to -165: 11-1 +960)




“Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity.”

Old Post 06-07-10 11:17 AM
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Hal Coldvice
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Registered: Feb 2010
Posts: 1592

looks good.

do you post your picks in here? I didn't see Sunday's picks. Curious which ones were 4-1 outside of STL.

Old Post 06-07-10 08:31 PM
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mattyp


Registered: May 2010
Posts: 294

I'm sure COL (Jimenez) was one of those Ws

Maybe Lincecum with SF as well?

Old Post 06-07-10 08:49 PM
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jeffdane
StatFox Hall of Famer

Registered: Jan 2003
Posts: 3412

website was not updated before gametime

dont know why but i was advised that we can find these numbers at vegas insider andy iskoe has them and they come out earlier some days.

colorado, sf, stl, tb, houston, and seattle were the plays yesterday.




“Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity.”

Old Post 06-07-10 09:09 PM
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catd10
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Nov 2007
Posts: 3096

Jeff,

A filter I use is if the Net P&L is neg then it is not a play. That would drop Arz today but then again it is very hard to go against 11-1!

Old Post 06-08-10 12:06 AM
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ChadillacSHSU


Registered: Mar 2010
Posts: 467

Have you ever put any of the JeffSagarin.com NL&AL pitching stats together to find trends? I know that his site updates early, everyday.




"You need to make a bet on something every day. You might be walking around lucky and not know it."

Old Post 06-08-10 01:23 AM
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ronnie111
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Feb 2009
Posts: 7085

jeff

using the system today i came up with 7 plays

phil
sf
col
az
cle
sea
cubs
am i doing something wrong??

Old Post 06-08-10 05:52 AM
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ChadillacSHSU


Registered: Mar 2010
Posts: 467

If you go to thelogicalapproach.com you'll find the pitching stats and they'll explain what everything means.

1. higher ranking
2. higher value
3. higher total power
4. pitcher must be in top 49.
5. opposing pitcher can not be ranked 30 or higher.

Factor in all that stuff and sure enough, the plays for today were SF, SEA, and ARI.. 3 and 0 I think.




"You need to make a bet on something every day. You might be walking around lucky and not know it."

Old Post 06-08-10 06:01 AM
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ronnie111
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Registered: Feb 2009
Posts: 7085

chad

ok, i did not use 4 or 5 that's why i had 7 plays.

Old Post 06-08-10 06:12 AM
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