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CNOTES
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Cnotes Thursday's MLB & WNBA Best Bets !
Hamels & Phillies Face Dickey & Mets
A key NL East series draws to a close with an all-star pitching duel Thursday in New York where the Mets host the Philadelphia Phillies. The hosts will send RA Dickey to the mound at Citi Field for the 7:10 p.m. (ET) start, and the knuckleballer will be opposed by Philadelphia left-hander Cole Hamels.
Don Best is sending this game out with New York a $1.40 favorite and 7½ for the run total.
The fact that Hamels is the underdog is a surprise given his 10-4 record and 3.08 ERA. Two of his wins have come against the Mets, including a victory in late May in Flushing. However, the Phils managed to win just two of his six starts during the month of June, and Hamels has struggled historically both against the Mets and at Citi Field.
Dickey's great season is the primary reason why Hamels and the Phillies are the underdogs on Thursday. The Mets' right-hander is 12-1 with a 2.15 ERA and a very impressive 0.88 WHIP.
"Dickey definitely deserves to be the favorite in this baseball game," Don Best MLB analyst Kenny White said of the New York hurler. "The knuckleball, he throws it 87 percent of the time, and he can run it up there are 80 miles per hour. He has really mastered the knuckleball better than other knuckleballer in the history of this game."
Meanwhile out in San Diego, the Cincinnati Reds will be in town Thursday to begin a 4-game series with the Padres, and the long set will begin with an intriguing matchup between Mat Latos and Edinson Volquez. First pitch at Petco Park is 10:05 p.m. (ET) and the Reds are 140 road favorites with a 6½-run total shaded to the 'under.'
Latos and Volquez were traded for each other this past winter in a deal that also included Yonder Alonso, Brad Boxberger and Yasmani Grandal accompanying Volquez to San Diego. So far, Cincinnati has definitely gotten the better end of the deal with Latos coming off consecutive complete games and the Reds winning seven of his last eight starts.
Latos will be facing his former Padres teammates for the first time and pitched to a 3.11 ERA in 31 games at Petco Park from 2009-11.
Volquez has also won his last two outings and will be facing his old club for the first time Thursday. He has a decent enough 3.68 ERA for the season, but White doesn't think this will be a good matchup for the right-hander who turned 29 on Tuesday.
"He does not go deep into games, throws way too many pitches and works way too deep in the counts, and that will get him into trouble against a patient Reds team."
Stay up to date with all of the latest MLB news, notes and wagering info with the Don Best Pro Odds screen.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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07-05-12 08:25 PM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2006
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Total Talk - Thursday
July 5, 2012
Thursday’s pro baseball card features 10 games under the lights, seven in the National League and three in the American League. Rather than break down the sides, let’s look clearly at the totals for each contests. Let’s break ‘em down!
Astros at Pirates (7:05 p.m. ET)
The first series between these teams in May all went ‘under’ the number and now the first three games in this four-game set have all gone ‘over.’ Pittsburgh has produced an ‘over’ mark of 22-17 on the road but at home, the ‘under’ owns an eye-opening 25-12 (68%) record despite the three straight ‘over’ tickets in this series. Houston’s Bud Norris has watched the ‘over’ go 6-2 on the road, including three of the last four. However, when Norris faced the Pirates in Western Pennsylvania on May 11, his squad captured a 1-0 victory and the ‘under’ (7) was never in doubt.Tough to get a total read on Jeff Karstens at home, since he only has five starts on the season and one at home, which came on Apr. 7 against Philadelphia. Since he returned to the rotation in late June, his last two games saw 11 and 10 combined runs, both easy ‘over’ tickets. The total opened at 8 ½ and spiked to 9 at CRIS. Make a note that the Pirates haven’t seen a total over 9 at home all season, which tells you something. Also, the Astros traded Carlos Lee to the Marlins so that extra pop won’t be in the lineup tonight.
Giants at Nationals (7:05 p.m. ET)
The Giants haven’t seen a lot of high-scoring games in the Bay Area this season, which has helped the ‘under’ go 27-12 at home. However, the ‘over’ has gone 26-14 in San Francisco’s road games, which includes the first two games of this series against Washington. Even though the Giants’ Matt Cain has an ERA of 2.53, his total numbers are all even at 8-8. Like the rest of his staff, he’s received more support on the road (4.62 RPG). The Nationals’ Ross Detwiler has seen the ‘over’ cash in last five starts at home, rather easily too. The total is hovering around 7 ½ runs, which makes you wonder a little bit considering Cain hasn’t seen an ‘over/under’ this high in his last six starts.
Rays at Indians (7:05 p.m. ET)
Tampa Bay just completed a series with New York that saw the ‘under’ go 2-1, while Cleveland saw the ‘over’ go 2-1 in three battles against the Angels. The Tribe put up 21 runs the last two games after getting shutout in the opener to Los Angeles. The Rays’ Jeremy Hellickson has seen the ‘under’ go 9-3-2 in his 14 starts and that includes three straight ‘under’ tickets on the road. Cleveland’s Josh Tomlin has only received an average of 3.7 runs of support at home, which has helped produce a 4-2 ‘under’ mark. Most shops are offering a total of 9 ½ shaded to the ‘under’ (-115).
Royals at Blue Jays (7:05 p.m. ET)
This game has a real surprising total of 10, which seems a run too high. After watching the ‘over’ cash in five of his first six starts, the Royals’ Luke Hochevar has watched the ‘under’ go 9-1 in his last 10. The offense has helped the cause here, only providing 3.8 runs per game. We understand Toronto’s Henderson Alvarez isn’t an ace but the Blue Jays score for this guy. In his last three starts, all ‘over’ winners, the offense put up 26 runs. High number for a reason!
Cubs at Braves (7:10 p.m. ET)
The ‘under’ has cashed in five of the first six meetings this season, which includes two ‘under’ winners in this series. The pitchers for this battle have both been seen their share of shootouts this season. Chicago’s Matt Garza has seen the ‘over’ go 9-6, giving up a 5.56 ERA to boot. Also, Atlanta’s Mike Minor has watched the ‘over’ go 11-4, 5-1 to the ‘over’ at home, plus his ERA is 6.17 in Georgia. Thought we would see a total of 9 runs but the opener was 8 ½.
Phillies at Mets (7:10 p.m. ET)
When in doubt, bet the Philadelphia ‘over.’ The Phillies have watched the ‘over’ go 52-29 on the season and 28-14 on the road, both ranked first in the majors. Two good pitchers on the mound tonight with Cole Hamels (10-6) and R.A. Dickey (7-9), however both have had their share of ‘over’ winners. The ‘over/under’ has listed at 7 runs.
Rockies at Cardinals (8:15 p.m. ET)
Last season, the ‘under’ went 4-2 in the six meetings between the pair. That trend has continued this year with the ‘under’ going 2-1 in the first three encounters. That could change tonight as bettors are looking at a total of 9 ½ runs. The Rockies’ Christian Friedrich has watched the ‘over’ go 7-4 on the season but all four of the ‘under’ tickets have come on the road. He’s pitched well, 2.75 ERA compared to a 9.62 ERA at home. The Cardinals’ Lance Lynn has watched the ‘over’ go 11-5 on the season, which includes an 8-2 run in the last 10. Lynn has been aided with an average of 6.19 runs per game of support from St. Louis.
Dodgers at Diamondbacks (9:40 p.m. ET)
Possible ‘under’ look here with the Dodgers’ Nathan Eovaldi on the mound. He’s watched the ‘under’ go 6-1 in his seven starts, and Los Angeles is 0-7 over that span as well. The two teams have played three times in the desert this season and the ‘over’ has gone 2-1, with 15 combined runs posted in two of the games. Tonight’s total is 8 ½ runs at most shops, with a couple already moving up to 9.
Cincinnati at San Diego (10:05 p.m. ET)
This matchup has the lowest total (6 ½) on the board and deservingly so. San Diego’s offense hasn’t been sharp all season and the Reds have seen the ‘under’ go 25-15 on the road. During its current road trip, Cincinnati has watched the ‘under’ go 5-1-1 in the first seven games. The Reds’ Mat Latos has seen the ‘over’ go 9-7 but he’s been sharp in his last two outings (18 innings, 2 earned runs). San Diego’s Edinson Volquez, a former Red, has watched the ‘under’ go 10-7 in his 17 starts.
Orioles at Angels (10:05 p.m. ET)
The Orioles (42-37) and Angels (46-34) have both leaned towards the ‘under’ this season. Baltimore and Los Angeles have squared off five times this season and the ‘over’ has gone 3-2 in those games. The Angels have put up six or more runs in four of the five battles. Baltimore’s Jake Arrieta has seen the ‘over’ go 10-7 while the Angels’ Garrett Richards has watched the ‘under’ go 3-1 in his four starts. The total seems a little low (8.5) when you consider Arrieta’s ERA (5.81).
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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07-05-12 08:36 PM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
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Diamond Trends - Thursday
July 5, 2012
SU TREND OF THE DAY:
The Mets are 0-9 since June 17, 2011 as a home favorite after a loss in which they had a higher team-left-on-base than their opponent for a net profit of $1061 when playing against.
OU TREND OF THE DAY:
The Angels are 0-14-2 OU since April 12, 2011 when playing a night game as a favorite after a loss in which they had a higher team-left-on-base than their opponent for a net profit of $1400 when playing the under.
STARTER TREND OF THE DAY:
The Cubs are 11-0 OU since May 17, 2011 when Matt Garza starts when he is off a start in which he needed more than 4 pitches per batter for a net profit of $1100 when playing the over.
MLB BIBLE TREND OF THE DAY:
The Rays are 12-0 (2.8 rpg) since May 20, 2008 if not a -140 or greater favorite after a game where they struck out at least 14 times.
TODAY’S TRENDS:
The Pirates are 0-10 OU since June 01, 2010 when Jeff Karstens starts after going at least 6 innings and giving up 6 or fewer hits and they won in his previous start for a net profit of $1000 when playing the under.
The Rangers are 10-0 since July 17, 2011 when Matt Harrison starts as a road favorite for a net profit of $1000.
The Indians are 7-0 since April 05, 2011 when Josh Tomlin starts at home after his team lost the last time he started vs this opponent for a net profit of $758.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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07-05-12 08:38 PM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
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Armadillo: Thursday's six-pack
-- Thomas Jefferson and John Adams were the only future Presidents who signed the Declaration of Independence.
-- Chipper Jones, who went to high school with Jefferson/Adams, has hit .436 over his last 11 games.
-- Carlos Lee agreed to be traded to Miami, which is 1,191 miles east of Houston. He refused to be traded to LA, 1,549 miles to the west. Now the Dodgers are contenders and Miami isn't, so that 357 miles must mean a hell of a lot to Lee.
-- Mariners have now scored a total of three runs in Hector Noesi's last five starts; the two they got Wednesday were both unearned.
-- San Diego has now won five games in row, scoring 33 runs.
-- Latos-Volquez were basically traded for each other last December (San Diego got couple other good prospects, too); they face each other at Petco Thursday. Padres are playing better ball since Carlos Quentin got back.
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Armadillo: Thursday's List of 13: Happy 5th of July, everyone......
13) Steve Nash shunned the Knicks and his home country of Canada when he got himself traded to the Lakers for four draft picks and $3M. Story goes that he wanted to stay closer to where his kids live. Whatever.
12) I remember Mark McGwire wanting to leave the A's so he could move closer to where his kids lived (in Anaheim) then he signed with St Louis, so its hard to believe what these guys say, but Nash apparently left $10M on the table, as Lakers couldn't pay him as much as the Raptors could.
Having a legit chance to win a title was probably a very big factor. Nash has a lot of endorsements, so he can make a lot of that $10M back by doing a lot of commercials, especially if the Lakers win.
11) But if you're the Raptors, what do you do now? The guy who is GM of the Canadian National Basketball Team just took $10M less to play for an American team. How do you recruit free agents now? Or sell tickets?
10) Lakers figure to be very good for next 2-3 years, so what use are those four draft picks they traded to Phoenix? Not much, really......
9) Antonio Esfandiari won $18,346,673 at the World Series of Poker, as he edged out 47 others who ponied up $1M each to enter, so if you know the former magician, good day to hit him up for a loan.
8) Five of the ten basketball coaches in the Big X Conference have been to a Final Four; going to be a very interesting league this winter.
7) Arkansas football's offseason from hell continued with word that coach John L.Smith, who replaced the fired Bobby Petrino, is going to have to declare bankruptcy after some investments went bad. No wonder he bolted his alma mater (Weber State) for the more lucrative Razorback job.
6) Ben Sheets, who disappeared after blowing his arm out while pitching for the A's two years ago, threw 74 pitches in a minor league game Wednesday and could join Atlanta after the All-Star break. The money is so big in major league baseball; why would anyone ever retire?
5) I voted for Aaron Hill and Jake Peavy in the Final Vote for the All-Star Game; Hill hit for the cycle twice in 11 days. In 43.5 years, the Padres have never hit for the cycle.
4) If you care about such things, since 2010, Ian Kennedy has drawn more walks than any other pitcher (18); Jonathan Niese is next with 16, and no one else has more than nine. Now there's some useful knowledge.
3) On December 16, 2002, the Twins released a 26-year old named David Ortiz, who hit 20 HRs with 75 RBI in '02, with a .339 OB%. In nine years since then, Ortiz has averaged 103 RBI a year, had an OB% of .369+ nine times and won two World Series rings. Whoops.
2) A's are now 20-7 in their last 27 home games against Boston.
1) Mayor Bloomberg of New York is trying to ban 20-ounce sodas in the Big Apple, but he shows up at a press conference promoting the Nathan's Hot Dog Eating contest in Brooklyn. Typical hypocrite politician.
Joey Chestnut inhaled 68 weiners in ten minutes to win his sixth hot dog eating title in a row. Why does ESPN air this garbage?
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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07-05-12 08:41 PM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
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Public opinion: Pirates getting support at home
MLB:
Houston Astros at Pittsburgh Pirates (-140, 8.5)
Jeff Karstens is back on the hill Thursday to make his third start since returning from a shoulder injury that had him on the DL since April 17. He gave up six runs to the Phillies in five innings of work on June 25, but looked better in his last outing, allowed just two runs over seven innings to help Pittsburgh down the Cards. He faces off against the struggling Bud Norris.
Consensus: Pirates, 71 percent
WNBA:
San Antonio Silver Stars at Indiana Fever (-6.5, 156)
Early bettors are bucking a major under trend within this matchup. The Silver Stars and Fever have played under the total in eight of the last 10 meetings, but with San Antonio putting up at least 90 points in four of their last six, it looks like that’s the way bettors are leaning.
Consensus: Over, 62 percent
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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07-05-12 08:43 PM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
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WNBA
Dunkel
San Antonio at Indiana
The Silver Stars look to build on their 6-0 ATS record in their last 6 games against a team with a winning record. San Antonio is the pick (+7) according to Dunkel, which has the Fever favored by only 2 1/2. Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (+7). Here are all of today's picks
THURSDAY, JULY 5
Game 651-652: Minnesota at Los Angeles (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 119.060; Los Angeles 109.168
Dunkel Line & Total: Minnesota by 10; 161
Vegas Line & Total: Minnesota by 7; 165
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-7); Under
Game 653-654: San Antonio at Indiana (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Antonio 115.580; Indiana 118.164
Dunkel Line & Total: Indiana by 2 1/2; 158
Vegas Line & Total: Indiana by 7; 153
Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (+7); Over
WNBA
Thursday, July 5
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Trend Report
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3:00 PM
MINNESOTA vs. LOS ANGELES
Minnesota is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Los Angeles
Minnesota is 3-19 SU in its last 22 games when playing on the road against Los Angeles
Los Angeles is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games at home
Los Angeles is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Minnesota
7:00 PM
SAN ANTONIO vs. INDIANA
San Antonio is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Indiana
San Antonio is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Indiana's last 5 games when playing at home against San Antonio
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Indiana's last 5 games when playing San Antonio
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WNBA
Thursday, July 5
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WNBA betting: The league’s best and worst wagers
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We’re about to come into a little bit of a lull in the summer sports betting calendar. The Euros have come and gone, Wimbledon is nearing its end, the MLB All-Star break is just around the corner, and the London Olympics are still weeks away.
So, there isn’t a better time to dig into some WNBA betting – if you’re into that sort of thing.
Here’s a brass-tacks look at what you might have missed as we close in on the midway point of the WNBA season.
Best team against the spread: San Antonio Silver Stars- 10-3 ATS
At 8-5 straight up, the Silver Stars sit in third place in the West, trailing Los Angeles and the league-leading Minnesota Lynx. But San Antonio is second to none among bettors. With Sophia Young filling up the stat sheet and the Silver Stars averaging 81.9 points per game, the club has been held to fewer than 80 points just once in the last seven games.
Worst team against the spread: New York Liberty – 5-9 ATS
The Liberty sit second from the bottom in the East, ahead of only the 3-10 Washington Mystics. New York averages only 71.4 points per game (10th) while allowing 80.1 points per contest (ninth) and is 2-4 both straight up and against the spread over its last six. Cappie Pondexter, a 5-foot-9 guard, is the club’s most dangerous weapon. She averages 18.8 points per game, but even that is her second lowest average in the last seven years.
Best over team: Minnesota Lynx – Over/under 10-5
After setting a WNBA record with 10 straight wins to start a season, the Lynx have slipped a bit lately. They are still 13-2 straight up, but both of those losses have come in the last five games and the Lynx have covered just once over that stretch. They keep on cashing for over bettors though, with each of their last four playing above the total. With four players scoring in double figures, the Lynx average a league-best 85.4 points per game.
Best under team: Atlanta Dream – Over/under 5-10
Outside of Angel McCoughtry, who leads the league scoring 22.6 points per game, the Dream just don’t have much in the cupboard. They sit in the middle of the pack in most significant team offensive and defensive statistics. When it comes to under bets, take a long look at them when they’re playing at home. The under has cashed in seven of Atlanta’s nine home games to date.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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07-05-12 08:44 PM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
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Posts: 10543
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MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up
Thursday, July 5
Hot pitchers
-- Buehrle is 2-0, 1.29 in his last couple starts. Fiers is 2-0, 0.44 in his last three outings.
-- Cain is 5-1, 2.74 in his last seven starts. Detwiler is 0-0, 3.09 in his two starts since getting put back in rotation.
-- Dickey is 7-0, 1.01 in his last eight starts. Hamels is 1-1, 2.05 in his last three starts.
-- Miley is 3-0, 1.17 in his last three home starts.
-- Former Padre Latos is 2-0, 1.00 in his last couple starts. Former Red Volquez is 2-0, 1.42 in his last two outings.
-- Porcello is 2-1, 1.35 in his last three starts. Diamond is 2-0, 2.81 in his last two starts.
-- Harrison is 8-0, 1.42 in his last eight starts. Quintana is 3-1, 2.51 in seven starts this season.
-- Hochevar is 2-1, 1.95 in his last four starts.
Cold pitchers
-- Astros lost last five Norris starts (0-4, 9.55). Karstens is 1-2, 5.63 in his five starts this season.
-- Minor is 1-2, 8.81 in his last three starts. Garza is 2-2, 4.81 in his last four starts.
-- Friedrich is 0-4, 7.77 in his last five starts. Lynn is 0-2, 9.98 in his last three starts.
-- Dodgers were outscored 25-5 in losing all seven Eovaldi starts (0-3, 8.82 in his last three outings).
-- Tomlin is 1-2, 8.24 in his last four starts. Hellickson is 0-3, 5.57 in his last six starts.
-- Toronto is 0-7 at home with Alvarez if it scores less than seven runs.
-- Richards allowed 13 runs in 11 IP in his last two starts. Arrieta is 0-1, 5.40 in his last three starts.
Hot Teams
-- Pirates won seven of their last eight games.
-- Mets won five of their last seven games.
-- Cubs won seven of their last nine games.
-- Milwaukee/Miami both won five of their last seven games.
-- Cardinals won eight of their last twelve games.
-- Dodgers won three of their last four games.
-- Padres won their last five games, scoring 33 runs.
-- Twins won five of their last six games.
-- White Sox won five of their last six home games.
-- Blue Jays won seven of their last ten home games.
-- Indians won four of last five games, scoring 38 runs in the wins, getting shut out in the loss.
Cold Teams
-- Nationals are 4-5 in their last nine home games. San Francisco is 3-7 in its last ten road games.
-- Houston was outscored 58-23 in losing its last nine road games.
-- Phillies lost six of their last seven games.
-- Atlanta lost 11 of its last 15 home games.
-- Colorado lost 20 of its last 27 games.
-- Arizona lost seven of its last nine games.
-- Reds lost seven of their last ten games on foreign soil.
-- Tigers are 2-5 in game after their last seven wins.
-- Rangers lost their last three games, allowing 27 runs.
-- Royals are 6-10 in their last sixteen road games.
-- Tampa Bay lost seven of its last ten games.
-- Baltimore lost six of its last nine games. Angels lost four of six.
Totals
-- Nine of last ten games at Miller Park went over.
-- 15 of last 19 Houston road games went over the total.
-- Under is 5-2-1 in last eight San Francisco games.
-- Eight of last eleven Atlanta games went over the total.
-- Over is 7-2-1 in Philly's last ten games.
-- Under is 11-4-1 in last sixteen games at Busch Stadium.
-- Six of last nine Dodger games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 12-2-1 in last fifteen Cincinnati games.
-- Seven of last eight Tampa Bay games stayed under total.
-- Ten of last fourteen Kansas City road games stayed under.
-- 11 of last 15 Detroit games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 10-4 in last fourteen White Sox games.
-- Over is 11-3-1 in last fifteen Angel games.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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07-05-12 08:46 PM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 10543
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MLB
Thursday, July 5
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Thursday's streaking and slumping starting pitchers
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Streaking
Matt Harrison, Texas Rangers (11-3, 3.16 ERA)
Harrison was voted the American League Pitcher of the Month for June after going 5-0 in six starts with a shutout and a 1.29 ERA. The lefty hasn’t lost a start since way back on May 12 and is coming off a 4-3 win over Oakland. He went eight innings in that one, allowing two runs while striking out seven with a season-high 121 pitches.
Michael Fiers, Milwaukee Brewers (3-2, 2.29 ERA)
Fiers is on a major hot streak, heading into Thursday’s start having allowed just one run in his last 20 1/3 innings on the mound. The rookie allowed just two hits while striking out 10 and walking a pair in six innings of work to help the Brewers cruise to a 10-2 victory over Arizona. He has 41 strikeouts and eight walks in 39 1/3 innings this year.
Slumping
Bud Norris, Houston Astros (5-5, 4.90 ERA)
Norris came back off the DL just before his last start and picked up right where he left off – allowing runs. He was smacked for four runs and three homers over six innings in a loss to the lowly Cubs. Since leading the Astros to wins in eight of his first nine starts, Houston has lost each of his last five outings.
Lance Lynn, St. Louis Cardinals (10-4, 3.63 ERA)
Lynn will make his first appearance in the All-Star Game, but he’s searching for answers right now. He has allowed 17 runs in his last 15 1/3 innings over his last three starts. During that span he served up four homers and has walked seven, helping his ERA jump from 2.42 to 3.62.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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07-05-12 08:47 PM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 10543
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MLB
Thursday, July 5
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Is there no relief? MLB's worst bankroll-busting bullpens
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The Miami Marlins reached deep into their wallets this past winter, pulling out over $12 million to bolster their bullpen with nine of those milli going to closer Heath Bell, who signed a three-year $27 million deal with the Fish this offseason.
For Miami’s sake, let’s hope the Marlins left the tags on Bell or at least hung on to the receipt.
After being demoted from the closer’s role early into the season, he’s recently returned to ninth-inning duties with mixed results. Bell picked up 14 saves in his last 25 appearances and was without a blown save until Tuesday’s implosion versus the Milwaukee Brewers.
He served up a two-run, walk-off homer to Aramis Ramirez in the bottom of the 12th inning, handing Marlins backers a crushing 13-12 loss as +113 road underdogs after coming back from a 9-2 hole in the seventh. It was Bell’s fifth blown save of 2012 and Miami’s 12th of the year.
"We make errors and we pick each other up," Bell told the media. "I just unfortunately made an error that can’t be picked up. It really stinks."
Tell that to Miami backers who have been burned for -3.64 units due to Bell's gaffes. However, thanks to some last-minute heroics from the lineup, Miami’s 12 blown saves have only cost South Beach bettors 0.58 units.
The Colorado Rockies lead baseball with 16 blown saves. And if you’re still betting on Colorado at this point, the thin Rocky Mountain air is starving your brain of much-needed oxygen.
Here are three other bullpens breaking MLB bettors’ hearts – and bankrolls - in the ninth inning:
Milwaukee Brewers (13 blown saves – 55 save percentage)
Much like Bell, the Brewers’ highly-touted new closer Francisco Rodriguez hasn’t lived up to his billing. But, unlike Bell, Milwaukee has amazingly been able to bail out K-Rod on all four of his blown saves. John Axford, on the other hand, hasn’t been so lucky. Three of his four blown saves have resulted in losses for the Brew Crew, costing bettors -2.08 units.
Toronto Blue Jays (11 blown saves – 56 save percentage)
Same song, different band. The Blue Jays brass went on a bullpen spending spree this offseason, adding relief arms to avoid suffering through another summer of blown save after blown save. Toronto, which tied for the most BS in the America League with 25 in 2011, is at it again in 2012. An injury to closer Sergio Santos (who didn’t look all that great before getting hurt) has forced the Jays to lean on guys like Francisco Cordero (four blown saves) and Jason Frasor (three blown saves) in the ninth.
St. Louis Cardinals (13 blown saves - 57 save percentage)
The Cardinals are a weirdo team when it comes to their bullpen. St. Louis finished second in blown saves with 26 last year, then wasted only one in the postseason en route to a World Series title. Through the first three months of the 2012 calendar, the Cards are back to their old tricks with fingers pointing at Marc Rzepczynski and Jason Motte, who have combined for nine blown saves and -5.47 units – nearly 75 percent of St. Louis’ total units lost this season.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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07-05-12 08:48 PM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 10543
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WNBA
Long Sheet
Thursday, July 5
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MINNESOTA (13 - 2) at LOS ANGELES (10 - 6) - 7/5/2012, 3:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MINNESOTA is 59-84 ATS (-33.4 Units) in July games since 1997.
MINNESOTA is 60-85 ATS (-33.5 Units) in road games vs. division opponents since 1997.
MINNESOTA is 8-19 ATS (-12.9 Units) in road games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 77+ points/game after 15+ games since 1997.
LOS ANGELES is 35-20 ATS (+13.0 Units) in home games when playing with 3 or more days rest since 1997.
MINNESOTA is 34-22 ATS (+9.8 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) off a upset loss as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 16-4 ATS (+11.6 Units) after allowing 75 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 40-25 ATS (+12.5 Units) after scoring 75 points or more over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 77+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
LOS ANGELES is 32-50 ATS (-23.0 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
LOS ANGELES is 26-46 ATS (-24.6 Units) in a home game where where the total is greater than or equal to 150 since 1997.
LOS ANGELES is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) in July games over the last 3 seasons.
LOS ANGELES is 21-35 ATS (-17.5 Units) in May, June, or July games over the last 3 seasons.
LOS ANGELES is 21-35 ATS (-17.5 Units) vs. division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
LOS ANGELES is 18-36 ATS (-21.6 Units) after a division game over the last 3 seasons.
LOS ANGELES is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) after 3 or more consecutive overs over the last 3 seasons.
LOS ANGELES is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) after allowing 75 points or more this season.
LOS ANGELES is 9-20 ATS (-13.0 Units) after scoring 75 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
LOS ANGELES is 16-28 ATS (-14.8 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
LOS ANGELES is 6-4 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
LOS ANGELES is 5-5 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
6 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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SAN ANTONIO (8 - 5) at INDIANA (8 - 5) - 7/5/2012, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
INDIANA is 39-24 ATS (+12.6 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
INDIANA is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
INDIANA is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in home games in May, June, or July games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 10-3 ATS (+6.7 Units) in all games this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 14-2 ATS (+11.8 Units) in a road game where where the total is greater than or equal to 150 over the last 2 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 10-3 ATS (+6.7 Units) in May, June, or July games this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 20-8 ATS (+11.2 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANA is 2-1 against the spread versus SAN ANTONIO over the last 3 seasons
INDIANA is 3-1 straight up against SAN ANTONIO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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07-05-12 08:51 PM |
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