Finished the simulations for the first 3 bowl games of the year.

Saturday, December 18
NEW MEXICO BOWL

Utep 10
BYU 23

Not much value with the side, but will definitely be playing the UNDER 50 1/2.


HUMANITARIAN BOWL

N Illinois 46
Fresno St 23

Looks like a solid NIU play at -3 and a small lean on the OVER 59 1/2


NEW ORLEANS BOWL

Ohio 36
Troy 31

Double play on OHIO +1 1/2 and a small lean on the OVER 57 1/2



Back later with more sims

What simulation engine do you use? Is it a home brew or can I access it from somewhere?

it is a home brew.

Example

UTEP vs BYU

UTEP avg pts scored 26.2
BYU avg pts against 21.4

add and divide by 2 = 23.8

UTEP avg rush yds per carry 4.6
BYU avg rush yds per carry allowed 4.1

add and divide by 2 = 4.35

UTEP avg pass yds per completion 6.7
BYU avg pass yds per comp allowed 6.4

add and divide by 2 = 6.55

do the same for byu
pts = 24.7
rush = 4.55
pass = 6.2

Now, in the extended matchup on Statfox there are numbers corresponding to each teams opponent's average.

UTEP has scored 26.2 pts per game against opponents that average giving up 33.5 pts per game (a negative influence of 7.3)

BYU has allowed 21.4 pts per game against opponents that average scoring 27.9 pts per game (a negative influence of 6.5)

So, take UTEP's 23.8 pts score and subtract 13.8 to equal 10.0

BYU has scored 24 per game, opps allow 27.7 (-3.7)
Utep has allowed 25.4 per game, opps avg 24.8 (+0.6)

BYU is now 24.7 -3.1 = 21.6

Do the same with the rush and pass numbers
UTEP adjusted rush 3.95
Utep adjusted pass 4.55
byu adjusted rush 5.35
byu adjusted pass 4.4

Turnover differential is divided by the amount of games played if both have played 12, use 12...if one team played 13 and the other played 12, use 12.5)

UTEP is -4, BYU is 0, both played 12 games

4/12 = 0.33 for BYU

Any home field advantage is +3 for the team that is home.

Final numbers

UTEP 10.0 pts + 0 rush + 0.15 pass + 0 to + 0 home= 10.15
BYU 21.6 pts + 1.4 rush + 0 pass + 0.33 to + 0 home = 23.33

only add the difference on the rush and pass numbers to the team with the advantage.

Seems complicated but once i set up the spreadsheet it is just plugging numbers. Have had my best success with this when the underdog in the game outstats the favorite. Hence, the reason why Ohio is a double play and N Illinois despite a 20 pt difference between the spread is a single play

Hope this helps

Did you use the same system last year? How did it fare?

Thanks jkaul!

Interesting... I may have missed it but do you factor in the strength of schedules relative to that statistics that each team puts up?
For instance, TCU dominates Wisconsin statistically but Wisconsin has played far superior opponents this season than have the Frogs etc etc...
GL and I hope you crush it this bowl season!!

I believe that the second part of the calculation addresses the strength of schedule by increasing or decreasing the points, rush, and pass numbers according to how they did compared to their opponents averages.

A team that scores 35 pts per game against opponents that avg allowing 34 pts per game is not going to fare as well in the stat comparisons as a team that scores 30 pts per game against opponents that avg allowing 20 pts per game.

Haven't kept up with the records of these lately, so they may be a little off, but they have been time-tested so the win pct should be close.



Play AGAINST a pre New Years Day bowl favorite of 8 1/2 or more.
Record: 50-17-1 (Last yr 2-0)

The play is ON UTEP +11


Play AGAINST a bowl favorite of 7 1/2 or more if off a straight up loss. Record: 39-14 (3-2 last year)

The play is on UTEP +11


Play AGAINST a bowl favorite or dog of less than 3, if scored less than 7 points in last game. Record: 16-4 (1-1 last year)

The play is on TROY -2

Play ON bowl dog of more than 3 points who won 4 or less games last year and is off back to back losses. Record: 8-3-1 (Last year: 0-0)

The play is on UTEP +11

Play AGAINST a .600 or better bowl favorite or dog of less than 8 that allows more than 26 points per game. Record: 33-14 (last year: 3-1)

The play is on N ILLINOIS -1 1/2


Play AGAINST 1st year head coaches vs opponent off win. Record: 21-14-1 (Last year: 3-1)

The play is on FRESNO STATE +1 1/2


Play ON a bowl dog off a straight up loss as a road favorite, if opponent is .800 or less. Record: 13-6-1 (last year 0-1)

The play is on OHIO +2


Play ON pre New Years Day bowl dog if off back to back losses. Record: 24-13 (last year 0-0)

The play is on UTEP +11

Play on bowl dog off straight up loss as favorite if opponent off back to back straight up wins (27-10) and opponent is less than .833. Record: 17-4 (last year 0-0)

The play is on OHIO +2


My "official" plays

4 units on UTEP +11
1 unit on UTEP UNDER 50 1/2
1 unit on FRESNO ST OVER 57 1/2
3 units on OHIO +2


GLTA

not much in favor of anything tonight

Stat Sim

Louisville 35
S Mississippi 29

No real edge for the side or total here

Angles

Play AGAINST a bowl favorite that won 5 or less games last year vs opponent that won 7 or more games last year. Record 36-14 (last year 2-0).

The play is on S Mississippi

Play AGAINST a .600 or better bowl favorite or dog of less than 8 points if they allow 26 or more pts per game. Record 32-13 (this yr 1-0 n illinois)

The play is on Louisville

So with no edge on the stat sim and the angles even, plus the game is 50/50 at sports insights and the line has crossed the 3, from 3 1/2 to 2 1/2. I will pass on tonights game

GLTA

Stat Sim

Boise State 55
Utah 19


Angle
Play AGAINST a bowl favorite of 8 1/2 or more in a pre New Years day bowl. Record 50-18-1 (this yr 0-1 utep)


Official Play
1 unit Utah OVER 57

I like that angle.

Hope it holds true tonight!

GLT


Sherlock

Hard to make the over with a couple missed FG's, a fumble on the 4 into the endzone, that is recovered before the endline but the refs signals touchback, a pass interference call in the endzone that ends up going against the offense and negating a TD.

POINSETTIA BOWL

Navy 33
San Diego St 32


Angle
Play AGAINST a bowl favorite that won 5 or less games last year against an opponent that won 7 or more games last year. Record 36-14-1 (this yr 0-0-1, s miss)


Official Play
3 units on NAVY +3


GLTA

i have been wanting to play a dog
but faves keep winning
tonight sanity returns
mishipmen on ml!

On Navy as well. was leaning on a play on the under, but still looking

Lets hit this!

I love seeing this thread every year.

For those of you who don't know, these are $$$$$



If I remember correctly here (going by a cloudy memory only), the ones before New Years did slightly better than the ones after.

Mike B - yes, they typically fare really well early but this year has started very slowly.

HAWAII BOWL

Tulsa 34
Hawaii 52

Angles

Play AGAINST a pre New years day favorite that won 8 or less games last season if rushing offense averages less than 121.5 yds per game and opponent's rushing offense averages more than 140 ypg. Record 22-5 (last yr 1-1)

Play AGAINST a bowl favorite of 8 1/2 pts or more if game is before New Years Day . Record 53-19, (this yr 0-2 UTEP,UTAH)

Both of these angles say to play against Hawaii....

Official Plays

2 units on TULSA +10
1 unit on TULSA OVER 74

GLTA

got a little Tulsa ML lets roll

STAT SIM

Fla Int'l 30
Toledo 31

With the late money move making FIU the favorite and no angles either way on this game, I will play 2 units on TOLEDO +1 1/2

GLTA

Monday

Georgia Tech 21
Air Force 39

No angles, stat sim gives the edge to the favorite....no play

Tuesday

NC State 19
W Virginia 27

One angle in favor of NC State...playing 1 unit on NC State


Missouri 16
Iowa 15

One angle in favor of Iowa...playing 1 unit on Iowa and 1 unit on the Under.


NCST angle...Play ON bowl dog off straight up loss as a road favorite if opponent is .800 or less. Record 13-5-1

Iowa angle..Play on bowl dog pre New Years day if off back to back losses...Record 24-13

GLTA

bump

thanks for these jkaul....tailing again

Military Bowl

E Carolina 39
Maryland 61

2 angles for ECU, 1 angle for MD

Official play - 1 unit on ECAROLINA +8, 1 unit ECU OVER 69

back shortly with the rest of the games for today