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copperblue
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Apr 2006
Posts: 6756

Duplicate trends

I like to use the summary sheets in the Power Searches but find too often that great ROI numbers are often attributable to having the same trend twice.

Example below. Why have both ? It really skews the numbers

Play Over - Any team (TEXAS) - off a one run win over a division rival, a good team (54% to 62%) playing a team with a losing record.
(98-51 over the last 5 seasons.) (65.8%, +44.1 units. Rating = 3*)

The average total posted in these games was: 9.2, Money Line=-105.7
The average score in these games was: Team 5.2, Opponent 5.2 (Total runs scored = 10.4)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 1 or more runs was 78 (53.8% of all games.)

The situation's record this season is: (6-2, +4.1 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (44-28, +15.6 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (231-186, +31.2 units).

Play Over - All teams against the total (TEXAS) - off a one run win over a division rival, a good team (54% to 62%) playing a team with a losing record.
(98-51 over the last 5 seasons.) (65.8%, +44.1 units. Rating = 3*)

The average total posted in these games was: 9.2, Money Line=-105.7
The average score in these games was: Team 5.2, Opponent 5.2 (Total runs scored = 10.4)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 1 or more runs was 78 (53.8% of all games.)

The situation's record this season is: (6-2, +4.1 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (44-28, +15.6 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (231-186, +31.2 units).

Old Post 05-14-09 04:19 PM
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StatFox John
Administrator

Registered: Jul 2005
Posts: 1421

Those are two different situations. If you played a unit on each you would be up 8.2 units.

Old Post 05-14-09 04:51 PM
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copperblue
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Apr 2006
Posts: 6756

How are they different ?

Old Post 05-14-09 05:06 PM
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StatFox Jeff
Administrator

Registered: Jan 2003
Posts: 734

John is correct in that they are technically different calculations. (All teams, All teams against the total.) However, they effectively produce the same result.

I am working on a quick fix to prevent this particular case of duplication from occurring. It will be resolved and reflected on today's FoxSheets within the hour.

As a general rule, there will be duplicates or near duplicate systems on occasion. When a particular condition has produced successful results in the past, the odds are very good that another similar system would have produced good results as well.

Old Post 05-14-09 05:33 PM
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copperblue
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Apr 2006
Posts: 6756

Thanks Jeff

There is so much great info on the summary sheets. Appreciate any help to make a great thing even better.

Have a good one

Old Post 05-14-09 05:46 PM
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Jake DeNiro
StatFox Hall of Famer

Registered: Jan 2003
Posts: 752

I have to say that I have seen and will still see many duplicate trends right to the word exactly and it is very time consuming when I have to eliminate them from the star count which in turn if I didn't the count showing is NOT CORRECT. Is it possible that they could be eliminated down to a single trend. Thanx and great capping weekend to all.

Old Post 05-16-09 06:22 PM
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