The moment all college football fans have waited for has arrived with a trio of televised lined games to open the season. These are wonderful samplers with college football action in four of the next five days. With seven lined games to choose from tonight, the focus will be on the three that can be seen on television for those that like to wager and check out your investments. Even if you are not betting on each contest, it is prudent to learn more about the teams from viewing, as compared to what they are suppose to do in the printed work.

LSU at Mississippi State (+18) 8:00E ESPN

The LSU Tigers figure prominently in the national championship picture with a ferocious defense that will wreak havoc throughout the South. Eight starters return including future NFL DT Glenn Dorsey. DC Bo Belini will be aggressive as ever with all this talent in place. With enough depth in the front seven to rival China, the Tigers will create pressure in waves to sack opposing quarterbacks and stop the running game like the Great Wall. New offensive coordinator Gary Crowton steps out of the Pac-10 fire into the SEC frying pan arriving in Baton Rouge from Oregon. His offense is often imaginative, but as the NFL showed, speed like the SEC has can take away several options. The offense will still be potent, with more running from the quarterback position than LSU’s rabid fans are used to seeing.

It’s year four in Sylvester Croom’s regime and Mississippi State fans are expecting positive results. Croom’s squads are 9-25 (14-16-1 ATS) and improving; however appear a long way away from a bowl game. A steady diet of running backs Anthony Dixon and Robert Elliott will help the cause since junior QB Michael Henig is anything but special. The Bulldogs have a wealth of talent returning in the offensive line and should not intimidated facing a contingent as stellar as the Tigers D-Line. On defense, only five starters return which creates problems against a veteran like Matt Flynn at quarterback for LSU.

This SEC opener will be at Wade-Davis Stadium, where the Bulldogs have not covered in seven straight against the Tigers and are 1-9 ATS in last 10 meetings. Mississippi State figures to play inspired football and keep it close for a half. In the second half power and strength take over for Les Miles team who moves record to 11-4-1 ATS in conference openers. Contrast that with Bulldogs, who have lost seven SEC openers in a row, not covering once.

StatFox Forecaster – LSU covers
StatFox Power Line – LSU by 19
StatFox Outplay Factor – LSU by 24


Tulsa at UL Monroe (+3) 7:00E ESPN2

Tulsa is picked either first or second in most preseason magazines in Conference USA’s West division. Wily Paul Smith returns for his senior season and is on the verge of becoming the school’s all-time passing leader. Smith will have to utilize all his guile with four linemen gone from what was the best offensive line in the conference and his three favorite receiving targets graduated. New coach and former DC Todd Graham will have to solve those issues and unleash six returning starters from a group that led C-USA in total defense at 296.9 yards per game.

UL-Monroe poses a threat in this game only because of formidable offense that returns 10 starters from the Sun Belt’s top offense, including all five offensive linemen. The ringleader is Kinsmon Lancaster who completed 57 percent of his passes and was the Warhawks third leading rusher. Defensively, the strength is up front with four returning starters in the front seven and two others that saw significant playing time.

Early bettors pounded UL-Monroe, who went from a six point underdog down to current 3-points at most wagering outlets. The Warhawks are 4-33 in non-conference games, with 10-18 ATS record. They still might be worth a look since they are 7-7 ATS under coach Charlie Weatherbie in non-conference play. This experienced offensive club takes on Tulsa who is 0-7-1 ATS in week one the last eight years and 10-18-2 ATS over the last decade out of conference.

StatFox Forecaster – Tulsa covers
StatFox Power Line – Tulsa by 6
StatFox Outplay Factor – Tulsa by 6.8


Utah at Oregon State (-6.5) 10:00E FSN Regional

This is tricky game to open up the home slate for Oregon State, who returns 16 starters or thereabouts. The indecision comes in with the last weekend’s return of potential All-Pac-10 wide receiver Sammie Stroughter from a mysterious absence. This issue has not been resolved as Mike Riley is letting senior work through personal family related problems. Junior Sean Canfield won the quarterback battle in a very tight competition. Lyle Moevao will see first half action, and reports are whoever plays the best will receive majority of second half snaps. An easy way to look good is hand the ball to RB Yvenson Bernard who is as productive as any back in the conference. A strong group of linebackers with varied skills allows the Beavers to be aggressive running to the ball or falling into pass coverage.

As this contest starts and the camera focuses on coach Kyle Whittingham, don’t be surprised by smile on face, having Brian Johnson back as his quarterback. Before being injured in 2005, Johnson was as effective as any pass/run signal caller in the country. The junior seems poised for a command performance with a truckload of available talent. The Utes have a large void to fill in Eric Weddle, the two- time MWC Defensive Player of the Year, plus two other all-conference linebackers. Martail Burnett in the defensive line and safety Steve Tate will have to lead the Utah charge.

After a couple of subpar seasons, the Beavers showed why Reser Stadium in Corvallis is such a tough place to play. Oregon State is 33-10 the last seven years at home and are 18-9-1 ATS as a home favorite. With Utah having quarterback edge coming in, the Utes are 11-1 ATS as road dogs of more then three points. The Beavers are just 4-8 ATS in home openers and 3-7-1 ATS in non-conference play the four seasons. Should be excellent way to close out opening night of college football action.

StatFox Forecaster – Oregon State covers
StatFox Power Line – Oregon State by 9
StatFox Outplay Factor – Oregon State by 3.1




You can get this information for every board game by ordering the Platinum Sheet via subscription or weekly at the StatFox.com website. All lines are courtesy of Sportsbook.com.

As this is the first game, how does one calculate an outplay factor? I thought it was

* Offensive Outplay Factor: Offensive PPG minus Opponents' Defensive Average PPG . Positive number is good

* Defensive Outplay Factor: Defensive PPG minus Opponents' Offensive Average PPG . Negative Number is good

* Composite Outplay Factor: Offensive Outplay Factor minus Defensive Outplay Factor




W/ no games played to date, I am confused. Thanks in advance

are from last year.

In the Platinum Sheet, we have it set up so the automatic calculations will be done using last 10 games up until week 5, then will convert to just this season at that point

Steve

Thank you much, I look forward to seeing the Platinum sheets