The matchup: Louisiana State Tigers at Mississippi State Bulldogs

Kickoff: 8 p.m. ET from Davis Wade Stadium in Starkville, Miss.

The line: LSU -17 ½, total 44 ½

Weather forecast: Thunderstorms probable during the day, likely becoming scattered showers in the evening. High of 89 degrees in the afternoon should cool to the mid-70s by the evening. Little to no wind.

Key injuries

LSU: The All-American talents on both lines look ready to go. Offensive guard Will Arnold, held to just five games last year, has gone all-out in full-contact drills and says he feels great. Head coach Les Miles, however, is likely to limit the number of snaps Arnold plays on Thursday. Defensive tackle Glenn Dorsey’s various shin and groin injuries won’t keep him out of the opener. MLB Jacob Cutrera will sit due to an elbow injury.

Mississippi State: All of the Bulldogs injury news revolves around the defensive end slots. Charles Burns was already out for the year and will likely be joined on the sideline on Thursday by Brandon Cooper. Tim Bailey, a converted linebacker, looks healthy after battling a groin injury. Josh Riddell, expected to be MSU’s backup quarterback, is suspended and won’t dress for Thursday’s game.

Three reasons why LSU could cover

1. Ferocious defense: Louisiana State featured an awesome defense last year and by all accounts, it’s even better this time around despite losing All-American safety LaRon Landry to the NFL. The front seven is the SEC’s best and rivals USC, Texas and Virginia Tech for the best in the nation. Mississippi State opened the 2006 season by being shut out at home by a pair of SEC opponents: a repeat goose egg isn’t a stretch to imagine.

2. Matt Flynn: The Tigers lost JaMarcus Russell to the NFL, leaving the quarterback position a question mark for some. Flynn wants to make the position more of an exclamation point in his senior year and has the national spotlight to open his season as LSU’s undisputed starter. He’s no inexperienced pup, having taken snaps against the Bulldogs three times in his career.

3. Recent history: LSU is 6-0 straight up (SU) and 5-1 against the spread (ATS) against the Bulldogs in the schools’ last six head-to-head meetings. The average score in those games has been 42-7. The Bayou Bengals are also 3-0 SU and ATS for their last three trips to Starkville, winning by scores of 37-7, 41-6 and 42-0, respectively.

Three reasons why Mississippi State could cover

1. Carry-over from ’06: The Bulldogs rebounded from last year’s sorry start to become a good bet down the stretch. Mississippi State ended the 2006 season by going 5-2-1 ATS, including a 4-1-1 ATS haul against SEC teams. While MSU was only 2-4 SU in the season’s second half, three of the four losses were by a field goal. The only significant margin of defeat during that span was a 14-point loss to Arkansas, a game the Bulldogs covered as 14 ½-point home underdogs.

2. The Tigers might be looking ahead to Sept. 8: LSU hosts ACC favorites Virginia Tech next Saturday, a huge game for both schools in their respective quests for a national title. Thursday night’s opener, however, is the Bulldogs’ biggest game until the season finale against Ole Miss. Mississippi State rarely plays in front of a national TV audience and has absolutely nothing to lose. For better or worse, quarterback Michael Henig will come out gunning against LSU’s defense.

3. LSU’s road struggles in 2006: The Tigers played only four true road games last year and went 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS. They scored only 13 combined points in season-wrecking defeats at Auburn and Florida, then allowed more points in Tennessee and in Arkansas than they did against any other opponents. Mind you, all four of LSU’s road foes last year were top-10 teams at the time of the game, something the Bulldogs can’t boast this Thursday.

Cool stat of the day

There have been 36 SEC games over the last five seasons in which the home team has been a double-digit underdog. The heavily-favored visitors went 34-2 SU in those games, but only 15-21 ATS.

LSU was 4-0 SU and ATS as a double-digit road favorite against SEC squads over that five-year span. Mississippi State, on the other hand, was 1-10 SU and 4-7 ATS as a double-digit home underdog against conference foes.

Key quote

"I know he said he doesn't feel the pressure, but he has to," Matt Wyatt told the Northeast Mississippi Daily Journal, referring to Flynn’s new role as starting quarterback. "It's different when you go into the season as the starter. The offense goes through you, and the guys on that sideline are looking at you to get the job done.”

Wyatt was the Bulldogs’ No. 2 QB in 1996 and became the unquestioned starter a year later.

"The expectations are so different. As a backup, you come off the bench after watching the defense and then go out and have fun. When you are the starter, you go out on the field not knowing exactly what the defense is going to do at the start of the game."

Covers.com pick: LSU -17 ½

Thanks for the post. I am already on LSU -17.5
Good luck to all

what book are u using on mine they only have it at -20 for lsu

the question is what book are you using?? its 17.5 at all the top class sportsbooks... and welcome to statfox........

i have been using betus i am thinking about also adding the greek also

in some 3 team teasers.

The 6 point teasers in this matchup have been money on lsu in past years. So why not take 10 !

GL DJ

if you can count on prompt payouts from betus then you should keep that account and add the greek. Use betus for your underdogs and the greek for your favorites. I cant believe betus is so out of whack with that Lsu line. youve got to take the 20pts just based on the value of it. IMO

Thers only one DJ here...

a question about the greek can i use the money transfer like betus where i can just go to walmart and fill out one of those sheets and then give them a reference number cuz i prefer depositing money in that form other than using a credit card

so what you are saying is since betus will have more points for the underdog i should use them for that and the greek will give me a better line for my faves correct?

my apologies. you are very correct. this new member is 56 : )

that is correct sir. as long as betus pays you promptly then keep that account for the underdogs. but if payouts are any issue at all get your money out of there. greek (favorites). sportsinteraction (underdogs) this is a good combination as well.

but does the greek have the type of payment that i like to use? like mentioned above in one of me previous replies

i believe your referring to western union and yes that is definately a method of deposit that is accepted at every sportsbook.

not it is not western union it is called a money transfer i believe i fill out a white form with a blue top i believe it is simular to a western union but its name is different i will check it out. thanks man