Dr. Bob
Friday NBA Opinion/Possible Best Bet
PHOENIX (-7 ½) over Denver
The Suns were killed by the Nuggets in Denver a couple of weeks ago, losing 107-131, but Phoenix applies to a 95-43-2 ATS home revenge situation and a 117-62-3 ATS home favorite situation that is based on last night’s loss in Oakland. The Suns are also 7-2-1 ATS this season in revenge games and 6-2 ATS at home after an upset loss (2-0 ATS if they lost the previous night). Unfortunately, Denver applies to a 41-17 ATS road underdog bounce-back situation that is based on their upset loss to Seattle on Wednesday. My ratings favor the Suns by 8 ½ points and the situation favoring Denver is not as good as the situations favor Phoenix, so I’ll still lean with the Suns at -7 ½ or -8 points. I’ll take Phoenix in a 2-Star Best Bet at -7 points or less.


Dr. Bob

Saturday NCAA Best Bet

**Ucla (+3) over Florida

UCLA is now 13-1 straight up against my top 25 rated teams, with the lone loss being by just 2 points at Oregon. Florida, meanwhile, is 7-2 straight up against the top 25 rated teams, losing by 2 points on a neutral floor to Kansas and losing by 10 points at Tennessee. Florida is higher rated than UCLA if you weight all games for the season equally, but that’s only because Florida blew out bad teams by more than they were expected to while the Bruins let up most of the time when they had a big lead against a bad team. Using all games for each team this season (with all key players playing) would result in a prediction of Florida by 2 points, but using only games against NCAA caliber teams (that includes teams like Miss State, who were NCAA quality but didn’t make the Tournament) would result in favoring UCLA by a point. Some people argue that Florida wasn’t playing their best in the regular season and turned it on only when the post- season started, but the math favors UCLA by 1 point using games from this tournament only (excluding games against weak 1st round opponents). My NCAA ratings, which use all games but put a heavier weight on games against better competition, make this game a pick. So, the “true” line on this game is somewhere between pick and Florida by 2 (the number I get using all games for each team with all key players playing). If the true line is pick then UCLA has a 60.3% chance of covering at +3 points. If the true line is Florida by 2 points (the worst case) then the Bruins would still have a 54.6% chance of covering at +3 points – so UCLA is a profitable bet even if I use all games for the entire season in my ratings (which favors Florida). My NCAA ratings have been very good once again this year and those ratings were correct in favoring UCLA by 1 ½ over Kansas in the regional final and have also been correct in pegging Florida as an overrated team in the last 3 rounds (two spread losses and a ½ point spread win). I’ll put my trust in those ratings and I’ll take UCLA in a 2-Star Best Bet at +3 points or more and for 3- Stars at +4 points or more.

Saturday NCAA Opinion

Georgetown (-1) over Ohio State

This game should be interesting to watch, with Ohio State’s 7-foot C Greg Oden going up against Georgetown’s 7-2 C Roy Hibbert, which is good because it doesn’t look like a good game to be betting on. Unlike most analysts, I had Georgetown rated higher than the Buckeyes coming into this tournament and that is still the case, with my ratings favoring Georgetown by 2 points. Using all games for the entire season would results in the same rating for both teams, but Georgetown became a better team when Patrick Ewing Jr. starting getting more minutes when Mark Egerson was lost for the season just prior to the start of conference play. Egerson was not a bad player, but Ewing is a great player that will be a star next season. Ohio State didn’t have Oden for the first 7 games, but their average rating in 7 games without Oden is no different from their rating in 30 games with Oden. Ohio State is tough to beat, as their 21 game win streak would attest, but the Hoyas have won 19 of 20 games and aren’t so easy to beat either (the talented Tarheels had an 11 point 2nd half lead and still couldn’t beat Georgetown). I’ll lean with Georgetown at -1 or pick and I’ll consider the Hoyas a Strong Opinion if they become an underdog.

where do you find this info - thanks

Bump!