At several member's request, I input the teams and simulated the Super Bowl 20 times as I did for the bowl games. It worked well for the bowl games, but had a rough start to the NFL playoffs so I haven't really been persistent in continuing it. Anywhere, here are the results that I was totally shocked with.

Indianapolis -6.5 vs Chicago (47.5)
Chicago won 11 of the 20 games, and was 14-6 vs the number. The average score was Chicago 24.3, Indianapolis 21.7, for an average 1.5 points under the total. The game went under 11 times and over 9 times.

Yardage breakdown:
Rushing: Indianapolis 105.9, Chicago 143.2
Passing: Indianapolis 241.8, Chicago 213.3
Total: Indianapolis 347.7, Chicago 356.5

Side: Chicago +6.5 (OFFICIAL PLAY)
Total: Under 47.5
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SCORE BY QUARTERS
Ind 4.6 5.9 4.3 6.8 -- 21.7
Chi 4.4 7.3 6.8 5.8 -- 24.3

TEAM STATS (Per Game Averages)
First Downs: Chi 19, Ind 20
Rushing: Chi 30-143, Indy 30-106
Passing: Chi 18/30/213/1.4 INT Indy 20/31/242/0.95 INT
Total Yards: Chi 356.5, Indy 347.7
Kick Returns: Chi 24.1, Indy 23.4
Punt Returns: Chi 13.4, Indy 7.7
Punting: Chi 44.9, Indy 42.9
Turnovers (Total for 20 games): Chi 30, Indy 31
Penalties: Chi 7-47, Indy 5-40
Sacks: Chi 8, Indy 20
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INDIVIDUAL STATS (Per Game Averages)
INDIANAPOLIS
Rushing
Addai 13-60
Rhodes 12-36
Manning 4-10

Receiving
Wayne 5-72
Harrison 5-67
Clark 3-40

Passing
Manning 20/31/242 (30 TD, 19 INT in the 20 gms)

Interceptions (total for the 20 games)
Jackson, Bethea 5
Harper 4

Sacks
Mathis 10
Freeney 3
Thomas 3
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CHICAGO
Rushing
Jones 16-80
Benson 9-43
Grossman 5-14

Receiving
Berrian 4-54
Muhammad 4-45
Clark 3-38

Passing
Grossman 17/28/202 (23 TD, 24 INT in the 20 gms)

Kick Returns
Davis, Hester each returned 1 for TD

Punt Returns
Hester 13.4 avg

Interceptions (total for the 20 games)
R.Manning 6
Tillman 3
Brown 3

Sacks
Anderson 4
Ogunleye 2
A.Brown 2

Thanks Brian,Good work there!

love it I am thinking 27-24..Bears..that is my prediction..have a future on the Bears also and am a Bears fan so it could be a real good day or a real bad one..thanks for the sim gl

I have been leaning CHI but this will push me over the top
G'luck

What line did you get on that future and when did you throw it down? No matter what happens tomorrow, good foresight. Thanks for the sim, BNB. I'm not surprised. My money and my midwestern love will be on the Chicago Bears, not the Hollywood Colts.

Thanks Brian, I am already on Chicago, so this makes me feel even better.

Thanks Brian this is the way Ive been leanin the last few days and this just helps.

nice job....i hope this gets under dandys skin





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I got it on August 9 at 15-1 odds. I am a Bears fan so of course I threw a little down.

I went through the 20 games and found the following results to these props. Lines listed are from Pinnacle. * indicate that the wager would have yielded positive results. *** indicates the most positive result.

1st Qtr/Game Result
Colts/Colts 6 (+122)
Bears/Bears 6 (+670) ***
Tie/Bears 3 (+1200) *
Tie/Colts 3 (+461)
Colts/Bears 2 (+1022) *

1st Qtr/1st Half Result
Colts/Colts 6 (+127)
Bears/Bears 6 (+502) ***
Tie/Colts 4 (+649) *
Tie/Bears 1 (+1265)
Colts/Bears 1 (+1314)
Tie/Tie 1 (+2443) *
Colts/Tie 1 (+2603) *

Player to score 1st TD
Thomas Jones 3 (+1119) *
Reggie Wayne 2 (+843)
Rex Grossman 2 (+4500) ***
Joseph Addai 2 (+596)
Dallas Clark 2 (+1533) *
Dominic Rhodes 2 (+2317) *

Some of what I like:

Total INT Under 2.5
24 of the 37 combined Colts/Bears games this season have gone under 2.5. 5 of the last 7 Colts games under, 5 of the last 6 Bears games under.

Total Sacks Over 3.5
More of a hunch here, since just 16 of their 37 games went over. 5 of the last 7 Bears games have gone over. 15 of the past 20 Super Bowl games over 3.5.

May take Total Passes Completed Under 40.5
24 of the 37 games have gone under. 8 of the last 11 Bears games under. 9 of the last 12 Colts games under.

Total Rush Yards Over 238.5
Total average is 245.1 for the 37 Colts/Bears games. 6 of the last 9 Colt games over. 8 of the last 12 Bear games over.

May take Total FG Made Over 3.5
90% of the time I take under, but another hunch on over here.

First scoring play will be:
Colts TD pass 5 (+347)
Bears TD run 4 (+937) ***
Colts FG 3 (+285)
Bears FG 3 (+423)
Bears TD pass 2 (+776)

Last scoring play will be:
Colts FG 5 (+362)
Bears FG 4 (+554) *
Colts TD run 3 (+554)
Bears TD run 3 (+1011) ***
Bears TD pass 2 (+483)

Total points scored by both teams
50-55 4 (+540) *
46-49 3 (+831) *
66-71 2 (+1374) *
42-45 2 (+849)
35-41 2 (+544)
29-34 2 (+908)
22-28 2 (+1428) ***

Total TDs in the game
4 - 4 (+437)
5 - 4 (+387)
3 - 3 (+773) *
7 - 3 (+576)
0-2 - 2 (+1741) ***
9-10 - 2 (+793)

Total FGs in the game
3 - 7 (+270)
4 - 5 (+342)
1 - 3 (+910) ***
5 - 3 (+600)

Total sacks in the game
0- 7 (+1036) ***
1 - 6 (+668) ***
4 -3 (+426)
2- 2 (+426)
3- 2 (+350)

Bears Passing TDs
2- 7 (+304) ***
1- 6 (+178)
0- 6 (+178)

Colts Passing TDs
2- 7 (+289)
1- 7 (+168)
3- 3 (+383)
0- 3 (+700) ***

First Half/Game Result
Bears/Bears 8 (+502) ***
Colts/Colts 8 (-142)
Colts/Bears 2 (+1140) *
Tie/Bears 1 (+2476) *
Tie/Colts 1 (+1603)

Here are the results in the 20 simulations:

Total INT Under 2.5
10-10

Total Sacks Over 3.5
3-17

Total Passes Completed Under 40.5
15-5

Total Rush Yards Over 238.5
11-9

Total FG Made Over 3.5
9-11

If you like da Bears why not take the ML!

Using my Blackberry 8700g to reply to this post from a stateline casino in Nevada.

Thurman Thomas is gest star at superbowl party here. Will ask him if he remembered to bring his helmet. Go Bills!

CHI +190 Buffalo Bills Casino 7:00pm pst
CHI +14 and IND/CHI 55u -130 (7pt T) Bodog 7:10pm pst

compared you player props with what's available and across the board your numbers are UNDER what is being offered. I think if someone just spread out there plays on the under (the yardage in particular each player will get, it should be a profitable day)

I may have to take a stab at the 0 and 1 total sacks. The game is generally not off that much (0 or 1 in 13 of the 20 games).

I would be sick if I lost more than 3 units on this game, so that was my cap. Here it goes:

1.5* Chicago +7 (-120)
0.3* Chicago ML (+190)
0.6* Under 3.5 sacks (-120)
0.1* Thomas Jones to win MVP (+800)
0.3* Ist Half/Game = Bears/Bears (+375)
0.1* First TD of game = Thomas Jones (+700)
0.1* First TD of game = Rex Grossman (+3500)

Best of luck to everyone today!

1.5* Chicago +7 (-120) -- PENDING
0.3* Chicago ML (+190) -- PENIDNG
0.6* Under 3.5 sacks (-120) -- looking good, none so far
0.1* Thomas Jones to win MVP (+800) -- not looking good
0.3* Ist Half/Game = Bears/Bears (+375) -- LOSER
0.1* First TD of game = Thomas Jones (+700) -- LOSER

Only 1 sack so far. I should at least get that one.

Gonna be -1.8 units on this damn game. Still a profit on the day thanks to Denver. Let's turn all our thoughts to hoops tomorrow. Hope nobody got blasted tonight!....financially that is.