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Sneaky Pete
Registered: Sep 2006
Posts: 372
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****Vegas is pulling a fast one and here is the explanation****
Well as most of you know this is my first year on stat fox and I have been taking this very seriously since I began around the last two months of baseball. I have been a member of foxsheets for about two years off and on and when football started I have been every day. I also have been a member of Sports Insights because of the information I obtained from you great handicappers. I know I still have many more years to be able to understand the art of handicapping. I am only 25 so time will tell. That said, here is my theory and I hope you can read this with an open mind.
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I have followed and paid close attention to records of most of you and I have noticed that over 65%-75% of the time, most everyone is on the same side. Home DAWGS are always a choice by most of us. As stated in Stat Fox the home DAWG is 41-25 this year. I believe everyone has cashed in a lot of $$$$$$$$$$ up until the last few weeks. It is not abnormal for some of us to go on hot and cold streaks, but it is unusual for a very large group to go on a cold streak. So, I decided to try and figure out what Vegas is trying to sneak over the top of our heads.
Last year as we all know was a year for the favorites( PUBLIC). And this year has been a year for the Underdog, which is who, the professionals like those of you that post selections on a daily basis, usually find more value. Until a few weeks ago, it seemed like all you had to do was handicap the games and then back it up by viewing the betting percentages. However that has not been even close to the winning percentage the past few weeks. SO HERE IS MY THEORY
The public has lost and can not catch up before the end of the season. We all know that when a bankroll gets low, so does the amount of the wager placed. Was this all planned out by Vegas ahead of time? Last year they made most of their money off people like you and I, except for some of you of course, and the public cashed in huge. But this year we have all cashed in with our DAWGS. So, now even though the percentages are way lopsided on games (e.g. 75% on favorites) I believe that the amount of money for that 75% is not as much as what the professional handicappers wager on that game. (The remaining 25%) just off normal plays not counting sharp money. Think about it, the squares lost their house the first 10 weeks, and now they are winning, and we are not hitting at the percentage that we were before. I personally am still up plenty, unless this happens the next 4 weeks in a row. So, do you think Vegas had this planned. Now they are getting money from everyone, where as last year they mainly made a profit off guys fading the public which is what most of the selections posted are on Stat Fox.
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My question after all this, should we start rolling with the public if the stats and trends point towards that specific team? I know some systems automatically filter out a no play if there is too high of a percentage of wagers placed on that team. Please add any opinions or theories of your own. Like I said above I am still young and dumb (LOL), no; seriously I would love to hear what you might think about the past few weeks with the Squares cashing in big.
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12-20-06 11:28 PM |
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Sneaky Pete
Registered: Sep 2006
Posts: 372
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believe me
If they just made money off two way action and juice alone and did'nt care about highly wagered games (number of bets) they wouldn't be in business for long. They do care.
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Sports Marketwatch – NFL Week 15
Recapping Last Week
NFL Week 14 went the way of the Public. The shops we spoke with all reported losing between 2-4% of their handle. It was one of the worst Sunday’s of the season for many sportsbooks. The only saving grace was Indy and New England losing badly, which broke up a lot Teasers and Parlays wagers.
SportsInsights.com analysis shows that in games with over 65% of the action on one side, the Public posted their FIRST winning weekend in over 2 months, going 7-4. Over the last 12 weeks, the Public has posted a dismal 32-61-1 record. That doesn’t pay the bills! SportsInsights.com Games to Watch analysis continues it’s “march to the bank,” going 2-1. Overall, that makes the Games to Watch column 26-16 = 62%.
Akira and Tex
Have you not noticed that most of the time the games that the public loses are the ones that have the most action, I do not have an exact percentage but it would be safe to say that each week the game or games(usually only two or three) per day, that the public loses are the ones that have the most action about 68%-74% of the time. That is not coincidence, what the great cappers call it is the public misperception, and vegas sets the line accordingly to get that high action knowing that it has a very good chance to be a winner for the books. They care about alot more than just two way action.
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12-21-06 12:11 AM |
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Jules Jodoin
Registered: Dec 2006
Posts: 150
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Enough Balance vs. Equal Balance
One section in the book "How Professional Gamblers beat the NFL Point Spread" explains that sportsbooks merely need "enough" action on both sides of a bet. Here is the example given in the book...
'Suppose $6,600 is risked by bettors to win $6,000 on Team A, and only $4,400 is risked by bettors to win $4,000 on Team B...If Team A wins, the sportsbook keeps the $4,400 risked by bettors on Team B and pays out the $6,000 won by bettors on Team A...The sportsbook loses $1,600.
If Team B wins, the sportsbook keeps the $6,600 risked by bettors on Team A and pays out the $4,000 won by bettors on Team B. The sportsbook wins $2,600...
In essence, then, the sportsbook is risking $1,600 to win $2,600. Those are very big odds in favor of the house, and a very big disparity to be overcome by the bettor. '
So, maybe sportsbooks do try to get unequal action if they have a "hunch" on a game, but they certainly need SOME action on both sides...
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12-21-06 12:59 AM |
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mikeb104
StatFox Hall of Famer
Registered: Sep 2006
Posts: 7733
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I think that for the most part, they try to get the $ amount pretty even, then clean up on the juice. Having said that, I also think that there are some games that they like a certain side, and if they can get 65% or a little more, then they try to play up to that.
Just like a big company buying another, it is a bet. They have some more insight then we do, so I think that they like some games lopsided. If they win 4 out of 5 or so, then they are doing great on top of the spread. I think that they look at it 4 times a year, not every week like we do.
Even if they play with the lines and win 3 of 5, and clean up on the juice on those games, and the roughly 50-50 on the rest, they are making money hand over fist. They know what they are doing, but I don't think that they are that greedy (they would lose future customers)
Just my 2 cents.
"Not everything you read on the internet is accurate"- Abraham Lincoln
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12-21-06 01:19 AM |
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