The Leading Logic In Sports Handicapping |
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puckslug
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Nov 2013
Posts: 1661
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ncaaf 9/21
Georgia Tech +10 and Moneyline +285: The Yellow Jackets are buzzing. They're 3-1 against the spread this year and have covered as double-digit underdogs already.
Iowa/Minnesota UNDER 35: Iowa has hit the overs in every game this year, but that ends today. The Hawkeyes and Gophers combined couldn't score 35 points if you spotted them 20. I don't even know if this game gets to 20. First to 6 wins.
Clemson -18.5: It's simple. Dabo's Tigers are angry. NC State is not very good. The Wolfpack don't have the talent to keep this close.
LSU -21: Yes, LSU is 0-3 against the spread this year. Yes, they almost lost last week to South Carolina. But their offense seemed to have figure things out late last week and on the other side of the ball, UCLA has yet to score more than 16 points this year and have no offense. Expect LSU to roll late in a get-right game.
Utah -1: Cam Rising is a gametime decision - if he plays, the Utes win in Stillwater. If he doesn't play, I'll probably hedge this with a live play.
Iowa State -21: I don't think Arkansas State to keep pace. This is a mismatch on both sides of the ball: Iowa State's quarterback, Rocco Becht, has been performing well and avoiding mistakes. His numbers aren't massive but he's still thrown for 539 yards with 4 TDs, and only 1 INT this year. Arkansas State's defense has been allowing 27.7 points per game (99th in the nation) where as Iowa State's defense has been solid, allowing only 11 points per game (15th in the nation).
USC -4.5 - I just think this number is too low against a Michigan team that has already lost at home this year. The Wolverines are still figuring things out and in a rebuild. It's Orji's first game starting at QB and is going against a much better USC team. I'm expecting a 24-16 Trojan win as the final score.
Tennessee -7: The Vols are 3-0 and ranked top ten. Their offense is moving faster than me running to the fridge during commercial breaks. Seven points against a hurt Oklahoma team? I don't care if they're on the road, I'll take that all day. I even took some alternate spreads -9.5, -13.5, -16.
USF +17: Alex Golesh won't let the Bulls lose big. I was watching this line all week and don't understand why this line didn't move when everyone seemed to be on Miami -16.5. It moved, I took the Bulls.
Arkansas +120: Did you know that the Razorbacks are 1-12 against the spread coming off a win since 2020? This is why I'm not playing the spread and just going directly to the money line. That trend has to break sometime and in someway...It's just math, people. I do think Arkansas is the better team here and after today they'll be 2-12 against the spread after win since 2020.
California Moneyline +114: The Golden Bears are 25-13 against the spread as underdogs since 2018. That's better than my success rate with pretty much most things in my life. Plus, Florida State is 8-18 against the spread in conference games since 2021 - I know Cal is new to the ACC but, when trends collide, take the underdog. Also, Florida State is really bad.
the first rule of making money is to not lose it.
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09-21-24 05:09 PM |
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