The Leading Logic In Sports Handicapping |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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7:30 p.m. ET: Notre Dame at Texas A&M (-3, 47)
Notre Dame went 10-3 last season, finishing with a 14th overall ranking. The Fighting Irish’s win total for this season is 10 with the over juiced to -115. Meanwhile, Texas A&M went 7-6, finishing unranked. The Aggies’ win total for this season is 8.5 with the over juiced to -120. Tonight’s primetime line opened with Texas A&M listed as a 1.5-point home favorite. Sharps have jumped on the Aggies laying a short home spread, steaming Texas A&M up from -1.5 to -3. This move is especially notable because Texas A&M is ranked 20th and Notre Dame is ranked 7th, yet the line is moving toward the fishy side Aggies who own the worse ranking. Normally, you would expect the line to move toward the team with the better ranking. Texas A&M is receiving 57% of spread bets, indicating slight public support. However, in a vacuum a line shouldn’t move 1.5-points based on a relatively even bet split. So, we know based on the “severe” adjustment that pros have laid the points with the Aggies, ideally at -2.5 or less. Those looking to back the sharp Texas A&M line move but wary of now laying the key number of 3 could instead target the Aggies to win the game straight up on the moneyline (-150).
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08-31-24 04:34 PM |
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