YRFI -120 (Play to -135)

Starting Pitchers: Carlos Carrasco vs. Grayson Rodriguez

We hit this bet yesterday, and we're taking another swing at it on Wednesday.

There's a few reasons behind that, starting with the 9.5-run total. That makes the price on the YRFI solid but a steal if money continues to come in on the over and drives it up to double digits.

Beyond that, Carlos Carrasco has a 5.40 ERA through 13 starts this season, with slightly better (but still bad) first time through the order numbers. The first four hitters in Baltimore's lineup have wRC+ numbers of 127 or higher, so they're a tough group to get through at the start of games.

On the other side, Rodriguez has strong overall numbers, with a 3.82 ERA and 3.60 xFIP. However, his xFIP balloons to 5.34 the first time through the order. We haven't seen an equivalent rise to his ERA, at least not yet, but the discrepancy is enough that there's probably something going on.

Even if there isn't, we have a strong enough projection on the Baltimore side to carry this one, with enough wiggle room to be worthwhile at any book today.

NRFI -109 (Play to -115)

Starting Pitchers: Gavin Stone vs. Erick Fedde

This might be my first Dodgers NRFI of the season, and I have to admit I'm a little nervous.

However, the match checks out, so I'm going to trust the model over my intuition. Chicago is the worst team in baseball against right-handed pitching and Gavin Stone has a 3.04 ERA, so there's very little risk coming from that side of the coin.

With that out of the way, let's look at the numbers for Fedde to see why my model likes this one. Fedde has a 3.05 overall ERA with similar (though slightly worse) underlying numbers. Notably, his ERA drops to 2.45 and his xFIP to 2.95 his first time through the order.

With the Dodgers implied for just under five runs — roughly half a run per inning — that suggests the majority of those will come later into the game, once Fedde tires a bit.