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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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NBA Playoff First-Round Series Betting Trends
There is probably no other league that changes more in the postseason than the regular season than the NBA. Considering that the playoffs drag on for two months or so, it essentially is a second season, and unfortunately, with the enhanced stakes as compared to the regular season, there are a lot of different factors that go into handicapping the proceedings.
For one, with the series aspect, you have a situation where teams are facing one another up to seven consecutive times. This leads to a lot of ebb and flow, and thus knowing how teams react to wins and losses at this time of year is key.
Second, the crucial thing at this point is simply winning games. Unlike the regular season, individual stats, contract incentives, and perhaps point spreads even, don’t tend to matter.
Thirdly, and this can’t be overstated, if players can play, they usually will. Unlike the regular season where injuries and workload days off run disturbingly rampant, you’ll typically get the best a team has to offer for every game.
After what was a far from satisfying regular season, for most NBA apologists, this is the time of year when they are supposedly validated. For NBA bettors, it can be a tricky time as well, as they are finally getting to utilize trends and systems that come when teams are playing with equal motivation.
One of the things that I feel is most important when analyzing the games over the next couple of months is to arm yourself with logic-based historical trends and systems from recent playoff action. In this article, the first of what will be a round-based series, I will help uncover some of that information, sharing some of the most prominent recent betting data that has affected the NBA playoffs, particularly the first round. I will do this same type of analysis for each round as the postseason progresses.
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04-20-24 01:02 PM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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Looking back quickly at some recent playoff results, one should first acknowledge the success of outright winners in postseason games. In fact, after last year’s 74-10 ATS record for outright winners, they are now on a four-year run of 301-33-6 ATS, a winning percentage of 90.1%. The numbers are noticeably less in a league like the NFL for the playoffs. With that noted, if you believe an underdog has a chance to cover a point spread, you should also consider their ability to win outright.
Alternatively, rather than buying lines down, or backing favorites on moneylines, laying the actual point spread has proven a better strategy. In addition, for those interested in overall home/road trends in recent playoff action, note that hosts are 150-106 SU and 132-123-1 ATS (51.8%) in the last three postseasons, noteworthy since those are the three “normal” postseasons since the league orchestrated its playoffs in “the bubble” at Orlando in 2020.
For the many people who believe this round is far too prolonged and even a waste of time, there have been 17 lower-seeded teams to advance in the last 11 years of the playoffs, including four of them last year! However, 11 of the 17 “upsets” were #5 seeds beating #4 seeds, and four others being a #6 over a #3. Last year was the first time that saw a #2 (Memphis) lose to a #7 (LA Lakers) and a #1 (Milwaukee) lose to a #8 (Miami).
Prior to that, the last “seed upset” of that magnitude came in 2012 when #8 Philadelphia knocked out #1 Chicago. Accurately spotting potential “upsets” is a good start to making profits in your postseason wagering. Hopefully some of what I unveil coming up will help you do that. Even if not, there are still plenty of other key systems that should assist in navigating the first-round action, not only by series, but on a game-by-game basis as well.
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04-20-24 01:02 PM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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There have been 17 first-round sweeps over the last 10 playoff seasons, with three coming by lesser-seeded teams. Interestingly, in eight of the 14 favored sweeps, the better-seeded team had a worse ATS record over the last half season, and 10 of them had even or lesser ATS records in the last 20 games and last 10-game time periods. In other words, ignore any late-season ATS trend data that might have you considering a potential upset or longer series. In many cases, these better teams spend the last quarter regular season on cruise control, more interested in ensuring health than winning and covering games.
There is actually a better chance that a #1-#8 or #2-#7 series goes longer if the better seed had a better ATS record in the latter parts of the season. In fact, in 13 of the last 17 series of these seed types that went six or seven games, the better seed had an ever or better ATS record in the last 10 games time period. Watch out for Philadelphia in this scenario, as the 76ers won their final 10 games against the Vegas number. Also, both Chicago and Miami had better last 10 ATS records than Boston and New York. In the West, Sacramento was the only potential playoff qualifier that had a better last-10 record than its would-be first-round opponent.
The last 10 games outright records can also be an indicator of a #1-#8 or #2-#7 series that could go longer. In ten of the last 17 matchups of those seeds to go six games or longer, the worse seed had an equal or better record in the last 10 games of the regular season. Again, this could be an issue for New York against Philadelphia. The LA Lakers also enjoy this edge over Denver.
In 12 of the last 13 #4-5 and #3-6 series that ended in upsets (worse-seeded team winning), the teams had overall won-lost records within four games of one another. This is in play for all but the Minnesota-Phoenix series in the West for 2024.
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04-20-24 01:06 PM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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There has been a significant benchmark in the success of the lower seeded team at 10 wins less than the opponent over the last 10 playoff years. If more than 10 regular season wins separate the teams, only Miami in 2023 has won a series, and the lesser seeds are averaging just 1.26 game wins per series, with eight sweeps in 32 series. Additionally, only four other teams pushed a series to seven games. For 2024, the Celtics and potentially Oklahoma City (should it face Sacramento) are the would-be qualifiers.
When 10 or fewer wins have separated the teams, the worse-seeded team won an average of 2.313 games per series, including 14 of those 48 series wins. Only six times did a team get swept, and only ten other times did it win just a single game. The #5-#7 seeds in both conferences would appear to have the potential to win at least two games in their respective series.
Only four of the last 27 playoff better seeds that won at least four more games against the spread in the regular season have lost a series. The 23 winning teams lost only 1.35 games per series as well. In essence, it is important that teams played well against the spread in the regular season. The Minnesota-Phoenix matchup is the only one that qualifies as of Thursday 4/18. However, an Oklahoma City-Sacramento would also meet the criteria.
Using the records from the second half of the season has also revealed quality underdogs. When the worse-seeded team had an equal or better record in the second half of the season, they won eight of the last 17 series while going 53-48 outright in games. This included series wins by the Knicks and Lakers last year. There are three “underdogs” that hold this edge for 2024: Indiana, Orlando, and Dallas.
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04-20-24 01:08 PM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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Alternatively, when there was five games or better record in the second half of the season for the better seed, all but one of 35 won their series while going 137-42 SU. Furthermore, only one other of the 35 worse-seeded teams pushed the series to seven games. Of course, the lone winner in this trend was Miami in 2023. Boston will hold this edge over any of its first-round opponents, while OKC would own it over Sacramento. New York would have it over Philadelphia.
There is an interesting benchmark for worse-seeded teams at 48 wins (59%+) or more. Those that reach that regular season mark have gone 6-19 in series, and 63-84 (42.9%) in individual games over the last 10 postseasons. Those with 58% or less (47-35 in full season) are just 9-46 in series and 91-198 (31.5%) in individual games. All the potential first-round “underdogs” that won 48 games are in the West: New Orleans, LA Lakers, Dallas, and Phoenix.
Of the last 13 better seed sweeps, all 13 had better records in the second half of the season, only one had a worse record in the last 20 games, and only three won fewer of their last 10 games. According to this, Boston and Oklahoma City have the best chance at first-round sweeps, as they are the only teams with advantages over their opponents in all three varying time ranges.
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04-20-24 01:08 PM |
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