let's have another great weekend !
GL

Match day 32 kicks off on Friday night in Spain with Athletic Club and Granada meeting at the San Mamés.

Bilbao are making a push for Champions League qualification after recently winning the Copa del Rey title.

Meanwhile, the visitors look set for relegation, entering this game in 19th and nine points from safety

Athletic Club were finally able to get over the hump in Spain’s top domestic competition by defeating Mallorca in penalties. It ended a 40-year run of not winning the Copa del Rey.

The victory also stopped a streak of six-straight losses in the final of the cup and booked Bilbao in the Europa League next season.

However, Ernesto Valverde’s side is still in the hunt to qualify for the UCL. With a win here, the club will move to within one point of Atlético Madrid in fourth.

After the wild celebrations throughout the city, Valverde needs to get his team focused for a good ending to what has been a great season.

After spending 10 of the last 13 seasons in the top division, Granada are headed back down to the Segunda unless a miracle happens.

The club recently brought in José Ramón Sandoval as the manager to lead the great escape. He has a long list of teams he has coached in his career, with this being his second stint with Granada.

He did lead the team to just its third win of the campaign last weekend over 20th-place Deportivo Alavés. Sandoval will hope that this starts some momentum for a great close to the season.

Granada will also need Myrto Uzuni to continue to carry the team offensively. The Albanian striker has racked up 10 league goals to lead the side.

As long as the hosts are over their cup celebrations, I can only see a home victory here. It just comes down to the best way to back them.

Granada have struggled to score and create opportunities on the road. Sandoval’s side ranks towards the bottom of La Liga in expected goals (0.85) and big chances (0.93) per 90 minutes, according to fbref.com.

These struggles have led the club to fail to score in nine-of-15 road trips in the league. Granada have also avoided defeat just twice on the road.

Meanwhile, Athletic have been strong at San Mamés, especially against lesser opposition. This same bet would have cashed on six occasions in seven home games against teams in the bottom 10 of La Liga.

The other trend I return to is backing the home team in Spain on Friday nights. For the season, the home side has won 20-of-32 (63%) Friday league fixtures.

Man City and Chelsea are set to clash in the premier FA Cup semifinal matchup of the slate, as the two seek redemption from struggles in their respective seasons.

Chelsea have failed to get anything going in this campaign, while City were upset by Real Madrid in the Champions League this past week.

The reason that Chelsea have drawn with City twice is because of their ability to play in transition. They scored their only goal at the Etihad targeting the left side of the pitch because Gvardiol sometimes is pushed too far up the pitch and teams have been able to get into numerical advantages over there.

Something that is pretty evident about Manchester City’s defensive transition is they aren’t as good at closing teams down, so teams that are good at playing long balls up to the attacking players can give them a lot of problems, which is why Manchester City have struggled anytime they’ve had to face good competition.

The positioning of Rodri as well getting too far up the pitch leaves Manchester City without their best ball stopper in the middle of the pitch, which means when teams can find an outlet against them, they can punish them. It basically comes down to this. If you have pace and good deep lying dribblers and playmakers, which Chelsea do, you can give City problems.

There is also the aspect of Erling Haaland and Kevin De Bruyne. They both asked to be subbed off at the end of regular time against Real Madrid and are listed as questionable to play in this match. Haaland was pretty quiet over both legs against Real Madrid and has been in a bit of a slump, scoring only one non-penalty goal in his last five six appearances.

Chelsea had one of their most complete performances of the season in a 6-0 drubbing of Everton on Monday at Stamford Bridge. The Blues' biggest problem last season under their various managers was an inability to consistently score goals. This season, that issue has flipped. Chelsea have scored 19 goals in their last six matches across all competitions and haven't lost in the Premier League since a 4-2 defeat to Wolves on Feb. 4.

The problem for Chelsea is now keeping goals out. The Blues conceded in stoppage time to both 10-man Burnley and Sheffield United to drop points in both matches. They squandered a 2-0 lead against Manchester United and were minutes away from losing that match at home before some late goalscoring heroics. Chelsea have played 10 league matches since the January EPL break. They’ve conceded at least 1.5 expected goals in eight of those 10 matches and let in multiple goals in seven.

Cole Palmer is now the joint top scorer in the PL, which is one of the most shocking developments of the entire season. It’s a perfect storm of breakout production, hot finishing and penalty goals. Nine of Palmer’s 20 goals have come from the spot, and he’s also scored 11 non-penalty goals from 7.9 NPxG, per FBref.com. Palmer isn’t just adding his goals though — he’s averaging 0.70 NPxG + xA per 90 minutes. When you combine him with the quality chance production of Nicolas Jackson and it almost doesn’t matter who the third Chelsea forward is.

The third spot in the Chelsea attack has been a rotating place for months now, but Chelsea are still producing two expected goals per match since the New Year. The defensive issues still need to be sorted out, but the Blues have proven they can create chances both on the break and against lower defensive blocks.

Chelsea scored four on City at Stamford Bridge and then produced 1.5 xG and could have scored multiple at the Etihad in February. Their attack will threaten City on Saturday and they’ll need goals to keep up in this matchup.

Palmer has recorded eight goal contributions since, including a four-goal display against Everton last time out. Everything positive for Mauricio Pochettino’s side flows through the ex-Manchester City academy product.

Both of the previous two encounters this season between these two clubs finished in draws, mainly because City’s rest defense hasn’t been up to the usual standard this year. Ruben Dias, despite his reputation, has been especially error-prone, and Rodri struggles mightily against any semblance of “pace and power” in transitions. City hold the advantage in virtually every other aspect of this match, but Chelsea’s counterattacks — via Palmer and friends — have the potential to be the great equalizer.

Unlike Chelsea, whose starting lineup and tactics are basically already determined at this point in time, Pep Guardiola’s side could take up a number of different appearances. After playing 120 minutes against Real Madrid on Wednesday, it seems unlikely Kyle Walker and Josko Gvardiol will start again, especially with John Stones and Nathan Ake available. Erling Haaland’s availability is up in the air, and when Guardiola doesn’t have a recognized center forward in the team — Julian Alvarez is somewhere between a No. 9 and No. 10 — things tend to get “weird.”

Of course, no matter what Guardiola decides to do, the basic principles will remain the same. There will be two wingers high and wide, two players occupying the half-spaces, domination of ball and territory and an intent to de-compact Chelsea’s fragile block and attack gaps that open centrally. City haven’t had any issues creating chances in those previous two clashes, recording 2.5-plus xG in both, but converting them is another story.

All in all, City should be and are the favorites, although not as strong as previous iterations of this team would be.

These two teams met at the Etihad in February and the total closed 3.5. Although that match ended in a 1-1 draw, there were 3.9 expected goals created and it took multiple point blank misses from both teams to stay under the total. Although the market may be a bit deflated because it’s an FA Cup semifinal, a flat three is an overcorrection and there is value on the over.

Chelsea are conceding 1.8 xGA per match since 2024 began in the Premier League. It’s a solidly below average defense overall that is consistently allowing multiple goals and that’s not going to change even if Manchester City are dealing with some fitness concerns to their top attackers. The Blues were able to find a ton of space attacking in behind Manchester City’s defensive line, but there’s little faith in them holding up against City’s waves of second half attacks if City is tied or losing

Luton Town host Brentford in a relegation battle with a lot at stake.

Luton Town were ripped to shreds by Manchester City over the weekend, losing 5-1. They are still in the relegation zone. Rob Edwards has had a difficult time trying to manage the Hatters injury crisis and it's only gotten worse heading into this match. They were dominated by Brentford in the previous encounter and we could see a similar story on Saturday.

Brentford finally got a win to distance themselves for the time being from the relegation fight, beating Sheffield United 2-0 over the weekend. The Bees have gone through a historic run of bad luck, which has resulted in a lot of dropped points. This match on Saturday would all but secure their status in the Premier League next season.

It’s bad times for Luton Town because of all of their injuries. Going into the Manchester City match, they had no healthy available center backs. It looks like Mengi might be back and Kobore will return after he couldn’t face his parent club Manchester City, but that is still a massive problem when you are facing a Brentford team that has all of their best attackers available.

Brentford aren’t typically a team that registers a high number of shots because they prioritize creating a high quality chance as opposed to taking whatever chance is available. With that being said, this is a unique scenario. Luton Town with maybe one available center back are going to have to do one of two things. They will have to more passively, which they have done from time to time lately, or play super aggressive and get into a back and forth match with Brentford. The problem with both of those scenarios is that if they play a low defensive block, they are one of the worst teams at playing that structure, which is going to lead to a lot of chances for Brentford.

For Luton Town, without all of their available center backs, I think their best method is play aggressively and get into a back and forth with Brentford. If they sit in a low defensive block, they are just delaying the inevitable. Plus, as sad as it is, one point from this match likely isn’t going to help them in the relegation fight, so they are likely going to have to go for it.

Brentford have gone through a historic run of under-performance, but give the players they have available in their attack right now there is no reason why they shouldn't hammer Luton Town here.

Brentford rested Ivan Toney against Sheffield United and they somewhat struggled to create high quality chances against a low block. However, Toney should be back for this match, which means we will likely see Brentford start Toney, Wissa and Mbuemo up top. When Brentford play competition that is below them or they believe they will hold more possession than, Thomas Frank will switch his teams formation from a 3-5-2 to a 4-3-3. When Brentford have played out of a 4-3-3 this season, they've been really successful, putting up a +8.8 xGD in 12 matches.

Having their best three attackers up top is so massive for Brentford because there have only been a handful of instances when all three have been available at the same time. Toney is obviously important due to his finishing prowess, but their most important attacker this season has been Bryan Mbuemo. His pace and finishing ability in transition is so deadly and crucial to Brentford's style of play. So far this season he has a 0.79 xG + xA per 90 minute rate, which is the eighth-best mark in the Premier League.

The flip side of things is that Brentford have actually been a pretty bad team and defending in transition and it all boils down to that they’ve had to play the entire season with backup full backs, which has led to them getting beat out wide time and time again. That is one of the reasons why they’ve allowed the second-most crosses into their penalty area, which is not ideal when you are playing Luton Town who only create chances from open play via crosses from out wide.

I really don't think Luton Town have a choice given the situation they are in with the relegation fight and their injury crisis across their back line but to go for it and try to press Brentford's build up to force high turnovers. Sitting back in a low defensive block isn't really going to work or be a sustainable method to getting three points in this match, which is what they need.

Playing a very back and forth type match is risky, but it can exploit Brentford's one fatal flaw, which is defending in transition. They also will have more space out wide to operate in transition if Brentford come out in a 4-3-3 instead of their usual 3-5-2, which will allow Luton Town to do what they do best, which is create chances from open play via crosses.

This is not only a huge match for Luton Town; it is a must-win match for them. The two sides directly above them play each other on Sunday, and so the Hatters know if they can claim victory here, they will gain points on at least one of their nearest rivals, potentially both.

A win will also give them the psychological boost of climbing out of the relegation zone regardless of the result at Goodison Park the following day. Generally, this season Rob Edwards has seen his side play the role of gallant loser. It’s time for points rather than plaudits.

They have gone toe to toe with the top sides in the division and given many a scare. They have also picked up points against teams around them at the foot of the table, including their last home game, a 2-1 defeat of Bournemouth, which also ended a winless run of 10 league games.

The one constant with Luton this season is that they score goals. Even when up against it last weekend at Manchester City, they still got on the scoresheet. They never give up.

Luton have scored in 15 of their 16 home games this season and in all the last 12. That run includes fixtures against all the top four: Manchester City, Arsenal, Liverpool, and Aston Villa. Across all venues, they have hit the back of the net in 20 of their last 21 Premier League games, only failing to do so away at Arsenal, the team with the best defensive record this term.

Brentford’s top scorer and talisman since they were promoted to the Premier League has been Ivan Toney. However, something has clearly gone wrong behind the scenes, with the England international sitting out the entirety of last weekend’s game on the bench. Whatever the backstory, without him in the side, the Bees’ attack is severely depleted.

Prior to that win against Bournemouth, where they needed to come from a goal down to claim all three points, Luton’s last home game was against Nottingham Forest. Once again, they showed their fighting spirit and never-say-die attitude by scoring late on to claim a priceless draw.

The Hatters have three home games remaining. After this one, they host Everton and Fulham.

For me, they must get a minimum of seven points from those fixtures to stand a chance of survival. They will start that by giving this game a real go against a Brentford side you could argue are all but safe following last week’s win.

You must question Brentford’s desire for a scrap against what will be a typically aggressive home side roared on by their passionate support in their tight and compact Kenilworth Road stadium. Especially given their poor road record.

Thomas Frank’s side have won just one of their last 12 matches away from home in all competitions with 10 defeats in those fixtures. All of which makes it incredible Luton are priced as the big underdog.

I wouldn’t put anyone off betting Luton on the moneyline at a big price that holds plenty of value. But given the home side do concede plenty of goals too I am concerned about the tie so would like to keep it onside in some form. For that reason, Luton Tie No Bet is the official play at +130

Burnley face a must-win away game if they are to maintain any chance of survival when they visit a Sheffield United squad whose realistic survival hopes have already faded.

Burnley begin the weekend six points adrift of safety with five games to play following a frustrating run where clear improvement has too often resulted in draws instead of victories.

Meanwhile, the Blades saw any remote hope of a late challenge to stay in the league likely squashed last weekend in a 2-0 loss at Brentford.

Burnley won the previous meeting 5-0 at Turf Moor in a result that spelled the end for former Sheffield United boss Paul Heckingbottom.

United may have failed to come through on our aggressive team total wager in last weekend's defeat, but it was still a performance that suggested continued improvement in the back half of the season.

The expected goals totals were nearly even in this one despite Brentford pulling an unexpected switch back to a 4-3-3 for the first time in nearly 20 games in all competitions. And Ben Brereton Diaz, whose impact on the shape and potency of the Blades' attack has been undeniable, actually had the most dangerous chance for either side according to the number crunchers.

But Mark Flekken denied his 10th-minute, left-footed volley. From there, the Bees suppressed United's ability to create. And the Blades do what they do on the other end of the pitch – concede an unacceptable amount of goals relative to the chances allowed.

The Bees' comfortable win ultimately came in part thanks to a Blades own goal, the latest in a season of defensive gifts United have bestowed. They have now conceded more than 22 more goals than their expected goals against would predict.

That's a rate of about two extra goals every three games and a practice that would be difficult to overcome in any league, let alone arguably the best on earth. And it has resulted in 84 conceded, an all-time record through this stage of a Premier League season.

Wilder has earned points at an incrementally better rate than Heckingbottom, but taking points has typically required two or more goals for his side. So if you come to a situation where you like backing his side, the totals market probably remains the place to do so.

For a second consecutive game last weekend, an error by goalkeeper Arijanet Muric cost the Clarets points in their 1-1 home draw to Brighton and Hove Albion.

Two matches ago, the Kosovo international dallied too long in playing the ball out of the back, allowing Dominic Calvert-Lewin to block his eventual clearance attempt into the goal in the Toffees' 1-0 win. Then against the Seagulls, Muric perhaps had that play in his head as he tried to control a backpass quickly and instead deflected it into his own goal.

And yet he's unlikely to lose his spot because despite those errors the team has played better since his regular involvement in Vincent Kompany's starting XI began. They've earned six points in the five matches he's played, and he was near-single-handedly responsible for a stunning 2-2 draw with 10 men at Chelsea late last month.

Further, the analytics aren't very friendly toward James Trafford, the England youth international who started Burnley's first 28 games in the net.

Up front, David Datro Fofana has cooled off of late. If the half-season loan signing from Chelsea fails to score on Saturday, it will tie his longest barren stretch in the league at four matches since his debut in late January.

The Blades may have been held at Brentford their last time out. Even so, they had the game's best chance, and converting it could've changed the match's complexion in terms of the visitors creating further chances.

And when Brereton Diaz plays, they've still scored multiple goals on five-of-eight occasions in the league, including three out of four home matches.

Burnley aren't as shaky defensively as Luton or Nottingham Forest, two other sides in the relegation scrap, but they certainly won't be mistaken for a top unit at the back. So while the margin of error isn't as big here as in previous games, the play is still on the hosts to score more than 1.5 goals at +128 odds and an implied 43.9% probability.

It's still the better move than the moneyline given the continued defensive struggles for Wilder's group, and the value is probably there at even money or better.

There's just six matches left in the Premier League season, and both of these sides still have a lot to play for.

Arsenal are still aiming to claim their first league title in over two decades, and they sit two points behind Manchester City in second. Wolves, while likely out of contention for European qualification, are hunting for their fourth top-half finish in six years since being promoted from the Championship.

In the reverse fixture at the Emirates, Arsenal jumped out to an early 2-0 lead, and they generally controlled the state of affairs for the rest of the match. Matheus Cunha was able to halve the deficit in the final minutes, but Wolves weren't able to salvage a point from there.

Since the start of March, the Midlands club has endured a rocky run of form. Wolves conceded 97th and 100th minute goals against Coventry to crash out of the FA Cup at home, suffered heavy defeats away to Newcastle and Aston Villa and only have a single win — a 2-1 victory over Fulham — in that time. With trips to Anfield and the Etihad still left on the calendar, on top of this fixture, things don't necessarily get easier for them.

Last time out, a Cunha brace earned Wolves a draw away to Nottingham Forest. The Brazilian's return from injury, along with Hwang Hee-chan's recovery, reinforce an attack that was depleted to say the least. Pedro Neto is still sidelined, and Craig Dawson's availability is up in the air, but Gary O'Neil is closer to having a full squad at his disposal — the lack of which no doubt played a role in Wolves' recent results.

Metrics-wise, Wolves profile as a mid-table side. Ranking 15th in Field Tilt and being in the bottom half for both xThreat for and against doesn't fill many people with confidence. However, they are a better team than the numbers would indicate, operating in a 3-2-5 shape in possession that utilizes a lot of intelligent movements and passing lane creation and having flexibility out of possession to adapt how high up the pitch they engage as well as the structure of their defensive block.

Like the home side, Arsenal are also going through a tough spell, although over a much shorter period — about 10 days — and potentially costing them two of the most prestigious trophies in the sport. The two legs of a 3-2 on aggregate defeat to Bayern Munich in the Champions League quarterfinals bookended a disastrous 2-0 loss to Aston Villa last weekend, which took them out of the driver's seat in the Premier League title race.

The general theme of the season for Mikel Arteta's side has been dominance against the ball with periodic blips in production with the ball — particularly when they weren't converting a dead ball situation into a goal in what felt like every match. What's made these last three fixtures even more troubling is frailties being exposed in a usually impenetrable pressing structure coupled with another spell of impotence from the Gunners' forwards. Against lesser opposition, the issues with the high press won't be as apparent. However, it's clear Arteta will have to make changes, either personnel-wise or tactically, next season to get more out his team in settled attacking situations, and for now they're just too reliant on getting a bad performance or setup from the opponent to have success in that phase of play.

Wolves are well-rested and healthier than they've been in a while, and also have the benefit of playing at Molineux. Arsenal come in having played and not won three high-intensity fixtures in a row, making fatigue a major factor. Although the Gunners sliced through Gary O'Neil's 5-3-2 mid/deep block in the previous meeting between these two teams, they do not currently look like a side that can break down a compact defensive structure, and Wolves will no doubt have learned from that first encounter.

This match will be a bigger challenge for Arsenal than most might anticipate, and thus I like Wolves +1.5.

these 1st 2 matches look to set up DRAW
GL

Everton and Nottingham Forest sit just two and one point above the relegation places, respectively, and will play a critical relegation six-pointer on Sunday. Both teams would be comfortably safe if not for points deductions assessed to both clubs for Financial Fair Play violations, but now neither can feel too comfortable about their current position with five-to-six matches remaining in the season.

Nottingham Forest have picked up six points in its last five matches with a win and three draws, including an enthralling 2-2 draw with Wolves last weekend. Forest created more of the chances, but their set piece defensive woes cost them yet another goal and two points. Everton finally found a win two weeks ago against Burnley, but the Toffees' 6-0 beatdown loss to Chelsea on Monday is a reminder of how poor their form has been in the second half of the season.

Everton have just one league win since Christmas, but the Toffees are +110 to take all three points on Sunday.

Everton have scored 16 goals from open play in the Premier League this year, which is the fewest in the English top flight. Some of their low goal totals are a result of poor finishing, but it also shows just how much they are reliant on set pieces to generate any real chances. Everton are 14th in xG created from open play as well.

When you switch to set pieces: Everton rank first in xGF and second in goals with 15. In total, 15 of their 31 goals in the league have come from set pieces. In this matchup against a poor Forest set piece defense, it's a huge advantage and the best path for Everton to score. Forest have conceded 21 goals from set pieces, which is five more than every other PL team. Even with a new goalkeeper, new manager and a different approach, Nottingham Forest have been a defensive sieve and that is Everton's best chance of scoring.

The problem is whether or not Everton can really rely on just set piece dominance as a home favorite when their open play attack is so inconsistent. The numbers are also trending downward. Everton's xG per shot has been in steady decline since December and even the once stellar defensive metrics have taken a tumble overall.

Everton have allowed 1.76 xG per match since Christmas, which is just below league average. The scoring is up league-wide and for most of the first half of the season, Everton were a profitable team to back as an underdog because of the solid defense and the set piece efficiency. Now that the defense is struggling, the market is taking note and has moved against them from the opening line in three consecutive weeks.

Nottingham Forest has been totally incapable of finding a quality shot stopper in goal, but the underlying metrics are pretty solid since Nuno Espirito Santo became manager. There's one stat that best shows Nottingham Forest's improvements under Espirito Santo.

xG per 90 allowed since Christmas:

Arsenal 0.57
Manchester City 0.91
Liverpool 1.09
Nottingham Forest 1.20
Bournemouth 1.43

Nottingham Forest's defense is actually closer to the top three than the rest of the league when it comes to preventing chances created. Teams finish quite efficiently against Forest because of the continued poor goalie play, but the defense is legitimately improved and now even the attack is more lively with a fit Anthony Elanga and Morgan Gibbs-White leading the transition attacks.

Forest have a +0.06 xG difference per 90 since the New Year, which is considerably better than Everton's.

Everton were the clear better team in the first half of the season when compared to Nottingham Forest. When these two teams met at the City Ground in December, it was a low-event and low scoring matchup that ended 1-0 to Everton but was essentially a statistical tie.

Since that match, Forest have a positive xG difference while Everton has slipped to be a -0.43 xG difference per match team. The Toffees don't deserve to be this much of a favorite in this match given their offensive inefficiency and over reliance on set plays.

Crystal Palace will try to build on their shock win over Liverpool last weekend and potentially make a strong finish to the season when they host West Ham in a London Derby on Sunday.

Bolstered by the return of Michael Olise to the starting XI, Palace rode Eberechi Eze's first-half goal and some exceptional Dean Henderson goalkeeping to a famous 1-0 win at Anfield that will ease the Eagles' relegation fears.

West Ham look to avoid a post-European hangover after their quarterfinal exit from the UEFA Europa League following a 1-1 draw in the second leg against Leverkusen at home that sealed a 3-1 aggregate defeat.

These sides drew 1-1 back in their previous meeting at the London Stadium on Dec. 3.

While Palace's victory over Liverpool was certainly surprising and a little fortunate, a menacing offensive performance should have been expected once we saw manager Oliver Glasner field a squad that included both Olise and Eze on the flanks.

It was only the fifth time the first-choice wingers have started together in the Premier League game since both have battled injury issues. But a Palace attack that overall has struggled has scored in every one of those games and earned three victories.

The performance at Liverpool was actually the best of those in terms of the quality and consistency of their attacking threat. Palace created three chances with an xG value above 0.50, and Jean-Philippe Mateta forced an exceptional save from Alisson to prevent Palace from doubling the lead in the second half.

Notably, it was also the first time both wingers started together since Glasner took over and installed his 3-4-3 setup. And it was the third time in seven games under Glasner that they exceeded 2.0 xG created, although the first came against 10-man Burnley.

The Hammers are out of Europe and possibly at the end of an era with most believing manager David Moyes will move on at the end of the season. And yet there is plenty to fight for down the stretch for the Irons, even if it's unclear how many English top-flight teams will qualify for which European competitions next season.

West Ham began the weekend in eighth place with only three points separating sixth from ninth. But the others involved have at least one match in hand, and Chelsea — who were busy Saturday playing Manchester City in the FA Cup semifinals — will have three extra games to play by the time the weekend ends.

Ideally, Moyes would like to use Sunday as a match to recoup before the stretch run, but that deficit of games compared to other European may not allow him any squad rotation. And the Hammers' crowded schedule has possibly contributed to a second-half league slide. They've won only three times in league play in 2024, and only once in their last six PL fixtures.

Even if Moyes were to rotate some following Thursday's second leg draw, that wouldn't factor in for influential midfielder Lucas Paqueta, who was suspended for Thursday's contest.

When West Ham travel this season, they've been one of the most reliable teams for bettors on the over, with 13-of-16 away league games going over 2.5 goals and 8-of-16 going over 3.5. It's a phenomenon you often find with teams who are best when attacking in transition.

With Olise returning last weekend and the Hammers in a weird moment, the line has moved heavily toward the Eagles here to the point where it's worth considering if it's an overreaction.

The Hammers may only have three league wins in 2024, but they've posted a 5-3-1 (W-L-D) record in their nine previous away matches against sides in the lower half of the table.

That would be enough reason to back them here at the current price if there wasn't the unknown of a potential European hangover, or if there wasn't another trend that was more obvious to get behind. But there is, and it's on both teams scoring to get to a higher total.

These two teams have come a long way since they met on the opening weekend of last season — a 2-0 Bournemouth win at the Vitality Stadium.

Scott Parker and Steven Gerrard, who had their respective sides trending toward the wrong end of the table, are long gone. Unai Emery took over for Gerrard in Birmingham and secured a seventh-place finish last season to get Villa back into Europe, and now has his sights on the Champions League as his team sit in fourth with five matches to play. On the south coast, Gary O'Neil replaced Parker and kept Bournemouth up, and now Andoni Iraola has the Cherries in 13th, on pace to set a club record for points in a Premier League season.

A 2-2 draw was the outcome of the first meeting between these two sides this season, with an Ollie Watkins 90th-minute equalizer earning the Villans a point.

One word to describe Aston Villa of late? Soaring.

They capitalized on Newcastle's 4-0 demolition of Tottenham — their biggest competition for that final Champions League spot — by going to the Emirates and besting Arsenal 2-0 to jump into the top four last Sunday. Then, on Thursday, they earned a ticket to the Europa Conference League semifinals with a shootout win at Lille after Matty Cash leveled the tie on aggregate with an 86th-minute goal.

Despite their historic success, this is a campaign very few Villa fans could imagine happening five years ago, but Unai Emery is making it happen. Their 4-2-4/3-2-5 deep buildup, which frequently uses Emi Martinez as a +1 to beat man-to-man presses, is a well-oiled machine, with every player on the pitch displaying a fantastic understanding of angles and timing of movement. Further up the pitch, Ollie Watkins is mounting a golden boot charge and has recorded 29 league goals and assists, which is tied for the most in the Premier League with Cole Palmer. Villa aren't too bad without the ball either, with their 4-4-2 mid-block and accompanying offside trap stymying opponents all season.

Bournemouth have been one of the most bipolar teams in England this season. The Cherries started off very slow, and after a 6-1 thrashing at the Etihad at the start of November, they rattled off six wins in seven. Following another lull in January and February, they've grabbed 14 of a possible 21 points from the start of March onward. There's a pretty clear correlation between quality of opponent and result for Iraola and co., and that's not really too much of a surprise given their tactical ethos.

For one, Iraola is one of the most aggressive out-of-possession managers in the league. He sets his team up to press high and go man-to-man in basically every game they play, which works great against the sides that don't have the quality to cope with the pressure and not as well against the sides that do. Additionally, Bournemouth are pretty poor when it comes to settled attacking play and buildup.

In transitions, they can leverage Dominic Solanke's skillset along with the speed and dribbling ability of the wingers to create chances, but the rest of the time they have the ball they're too direct and lack the appropriate tactical and technical nuance to really play better. Against tougher opposition, they both get less transitions because those opponents are more technically secure and also have a harder time building attacks because they're facing better presses. It's not complicated, but it is definitely worth pointing out.

The dynamics of this match play into Aston Villa's hands. Bournemouth will do whatever it can to create controlled chaos, particularly in counter-pressing situations. But at home, riding a wave of confidence, Villa won't be deterred. Emery's side will dominate the ball and cut through the visitors' press with relative ease.

Aston Villa vs. Bournemouth
Sunday, 10:00 a.m. ET

Aston Villawere awesome against Arsenal and not only covered the +1.75 handicap but won the game 2-0 at huge odds.

Initially, my eyes lit up when I saw them available here at -125 on the moneyline, but they have been bet in to -136. So instead, the bet is -0.75 Asian Handicap at -113.

I have heard people talking about their concern that Villa are playing in Europe on Thursday. But the games is in Northern France and a matter of a train ride away.

At this stage of the season, there are a few teams you would hand-pick to play against, ones with nothing at stake, and try to play nice, attractive, easy-on-the-eyes football. I have just described Bournemouth.

You can point to the Cherries recent strong form which has seen them lose just one of their last seven league games. However, five of those were at home and their last road game ended in a 2-1 defeat at Luton.

Andoni Iraola has only seen his side victorious once away from home this calendar year. That win coming at relegation-threatened Burnley.

A crucial point which would be easy to overlook is the landscape for European qualification for English clubs. After both Manchester City and Arsenal exited the Champions League on Wednesday night it is all but certain only the top four will qualify for next season’s competition.

Villa currently occupies fourth place in the table and will be desperate to hold onto that now that the safety net of a fifth-place finish being good enough is very unlikely to be there. That suddenly makes this a huge clash and something of a must-win fixture.

Unai Emery’s side had a little blip around Christmas after an incredible run of home form had seen them win 15 consecutive league games. They have steadied the ship and are currently on a four-game unbeaten run at home in all competitions, winning three.

In Ollie Watkins the Villains have one of the hottest striking properties around. Nineteen goals for the season puts him one behind in the race for the Golden Boot, and all from open play, not one from the penalty spot. At the other end Emiliano Martinez is showing the form that has him rated as one of the best goalkeepers in the world.

Riding a crest of a wave and with their huge crowd fully behind them the home side should have too much for this Bournemouth outfit with nothing to play for. A reminder half the stake is on a Villa win and the other half is on the -1 Asian Handicap meaning to fully cash we need a victory by a margin of two or more goals. Something they have done in eight of their 11 home league wins this campaign including both of the last two.

Coventry City and Manchester United meet at Wembley and are playing for a spot in the FA Cup final.

Coventry City are on a magical run after they knocked out Wolves in the quarterfinals with two goals in stoppage time. The path before Wolves was pretty favorable, but now they are in a spot to potentially play Manchester City for their first trophy since winning the League One title in 2020.

Manchester United somehow got a result against Bournemouth, despite being severely outplayed. The draw keeps United inside the top seven, but their season is really going to come down to the FA Cup to determine whether Erik Ten Hag keeps his job.

Coventry City had a really difficult start to the season and it’s easy to see why. They lost a lot of key players — Viktor Gyokeres went to Sporting, Gustavo Hamer went to Sheffield United and two of their usual three centerbacks went back to their parent clubs after their loans ended. Additionally, their main two strikers — Ellis Simms and Haji Wright — were also on a poor finishing run in front of net.

That has changed and they’ve started to finish some of their chances. Over their first 15 matches of the season, they only won three matches, but had a +0.38 xGD per 90 minutes. Over the second half of the season, they switched to a back four, and even though the underlying results have remained pretty much the same, the results — 18 wins in 27 matches — have been much better.

Coventry City can play a blend of a couple of different styles. When they attack, they have a lot of pace up front with Wright and Simms. Both have scored double-digit goals this season and Wright has put up a scoring rate of 0.60 xG per 90 minutes. That pace sets up perfectly for this match, which is going to be very back and forth.

It's the same story week after week with Manchester United. They were incredibly lucky to get a draw in their match against Bournemouth and the problems that have existed tactically haven't been fixed.

Ten Hag has sacrificed control and a tactical identity for results, which Manchester United is getting, but it's a complete farce because Manchester United is forced to play in up-and-down transitional matches and doesn't have the pressing structure or the defense to do it effectively. Every match, United presses with all of their attackers, but the defenders don't come up and aid in the press because Ten Hag is worried about them getting beat over the top. That creates easy outlet balls for teams to then run at Manchester United's back line. That is why they are allowing 1.84 xG per 90 minutes in the Premier League this year.

To be fair to Manchester United, they have gone through a lot of injuries to their defense this season and are in a dire injury situation.

Manchester United could lose to anybody right now given the way they are playing. When bigger clubs take on teams like Coventry City, they control possession, limit their chances on the counter and pin them into their own final third.

However, given the way Manchester United have been playing, they aren't going to be able to do any of that and will instead get into a back-and-forth transitional match against one of the fastest transition teams in the Championship. Coventry City has two capable strikers that will give Manchester United problems and with the injury situation the way it is, I don't see why Manchester United is this big of a favorite.

After suffering Europa League heartbreak, Liverpool return to Premier League action with a trip to the capital to take on Fulham.

The ruthless edge that Liverpool have lacked in recent weeks was absent once again on Thursday night, with the Reds only winning 1-0 against Atalanta as they crashed out of the Europa League, losing 3-1 on aggregate. The quarter-final exit was a shock with many expecting the Reds to go all the way, but attention now turns back to the Premier League where a title remains to be won.

The 1-0 defeat against Crystal Palace last weekend could potentially prove more than a bump in the road come the end of the season, but all Jurgen Klopp's side can do now is win all of their remaining games, and hope both Arsenal and Man City slip up soon. But, with City not in action this weekend, three points against Fulham would see the Reds leapfrog the defending champions.

This will be the fourth meeting of the season between Liverpool and Fulham, and the Cottagers haven't proven an easy opponent, with the Reds narrowly beating Marco Silva's side twice while drawing the other. The Reds have failed to win away to Fulham in their last three attempts, but if Liverpool want to keep their title dreams alive, they must put an end to that record later today.

Liverpool's entire end of season is on the verge of unraveling in the last 10 days. The Reds' troubles began at Manchester United, where Liverpool created nearly four expected goals, yet a defensive lapse led to a 2-2 draw against their rival. Entering that match, Liverpool were the Premier League title favorite. Since then, the Reds suffered back to back home defeats to Atalanta and Crystal Palace. They've been knocked out of Europe and are now third favorites to win the league at +650 entering the weekend.

The Reds are in a stretch of four consecutive away matches, including three in the league. They needed late heroics to beat Fulham at Anfield back in December, scoring two goals in the final eight minutes to win 4-3. Fulham did an excellent job of keeping Liverpool out of their penalty area in the first matchup and the Reds' away splits leave them vulnerable for this away trip to Craven Cottage.

The emergence of Rodrigo Muniz as a legitimate goalscoring option at striker for Fulham has propelled them into solid mid-table numbers. The Cottagers had their worst run of the season in late December and early January, but Muniz is getting 4.4 shots per 90 and has eight goals in the league since February began. The Cottagers really struggled to score for a long stretch because they were the least efficient team in the PL at turning final third entries into box entries. Now with Muniz as a solid striker option, Fulham are up to 16th in rank of turning final third entries into box entries.

The Cottagers attack as a whole is still heavily reliant on crossing. Fulham have completed the second most crosses into the penalty area and the clear weakness of Liverpool defensively is in wide areas. The Reds have been consistently exposed up the right side of their defense, and even with Trent Alexander-Arnold back fit, those issues will remain.

Now that they do have a striker, the rest of Fulham's attacking profile looks to be quite solid. The Cottagers are 10th in box entries, ninth in final third entries, 12th in xG created and 12th in shots per 9o. Given that Fulham had to replace Aleksander Mitrovic and that the league-wide scoring increased, it's notable that Fulham have maintained a similar underlying attacking level to last season.

Liverpool's second half against Atalanta on Thursday was rather lifeless in attack. Given the situation — Liverpool were down two goals on aggregate and had its best attackers out there — you have to wonder if fatigue is creeping in for the Reds. The fixtures continue to pile up, and Liverpool created almost no scoring chances in the final hour in Bergamo.

Atalanta outshot Liverpool 7-2 in the second half and when you consider their second half performance against Atalanta in the first leg and their scoreless second half against Crystal Palace, you start to wonder if Liverpool will continue to reach peak energy levels for the rest of the season. The Reds were carved open consistently by Atalanta and Palace on home soil, and their defense has been a bit of a liability away from Anfield this year.

The Reds have conceded 22.3 xG in 15 away matches this year, which is nearly 1.5 per match. Of the three title contenders with lofty power ratings, Liverpool's numbers are third by a considerable margin.

Liverpool have been snakebitten by poor finishing in this recent run of bad results. In the last four matches alone, Liverpool produced 3.7 xG vs. Manchester United, 2.6 against Atalanta, 2.9 against Palace and then 1.6 against Atalanta. If the Reds continue to produce like that, the goals will certainly be coming for Jurgen Klopp's side.

The questions I have about Liverpool are the defense away from Anfield, the energy levels in their fifth match in 14 days and Fulham's high energy out of possession style being able to keep Liverpool from effectively dominating this match enough to get margin.

The Reds are more likely to drop points than they are to win by multiple goals

only took 23 minutes

"When West Ham travel this season, they've been one of the most reliable teams for bettors on the over, with 13-of-16 away league games going over 2.5 goals "

another

" 8-of-16 going over 3.5"

Mo Salah not in the starting lineup today
GL

what a Sunday Morning !

"Unai Emery’s side had a little blip around Christmas after an incredible run of home form had seen them win 15 consecutive league games. They have steadied the ship and are currently on a four-game unbeaten run at home in all competitions, winning three."