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msudogs
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Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535

NHL Lagniappe 2/12

Sunday, 02/12/2023 (79) EDMONTON vs. (80) MONTREAL
Favoring: EDMONTON on the money line.
Play On - Road Favorites against the money line (EDMONTON) - well rested team - playing 5 or less games in 14 days, on Sunday games
(69-21 since 1997.) (76.7%, +39.3 units. Rating=3*)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0 +1 units).

Sunday, 02/12/2023 (81) SEATTLE vs. (82) PHILADELPHIA
Favoring: SEATTLE on the money line.
Play On - Road Favorites against the money line (SEATTLE) - well rested team - playing 5 or less games in 14 days, on Sunday games
(69-21 since 1997.) (76.7%, +39.3 units. Rating=3*)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0 +1 units).

Sunday, 02/12/2023 (85) ANAHEIM vs. (86) VEGAS
Favoring: ANAHEIM on the money line.
Play On - A underdog against the money line (ANAHEIM) - off a home blowout loss by 3 goals or more against opponent off 2 consecutive road wins by 2 goals or more
(35-24 since 1997.) (59.3%, +31.5 units. Rating=3*)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0 0 units).

Sunday, 02/12/2023 (81) SEATTLE vs. (82) PHILADELPHIA
Favoring: SEATTLE on the money line.
Play On - Road Favorites of -200 or less against the money line (SEATTLE) - well rested team - playing 5 or less games in 14 days, on Sunday games
(59-19 since 1997.) (75.6%, +33.8 units. Rating=3*)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0 +1 units).

Old Post 02-12-23 01:22 PM
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msudogs
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Sunday, 02/12/2023 (85) ANAHEIM vs. (86) VEGAS
Favoring: Under on the total.
Play Under - Home teams where the total is 6 or more (VEGAS) - off 2 or more consecutive road wins, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season in the second half of the season
(45-17 since 1997.) (72.6%, +27 units. Rating=3*)
The situation's record this season is: (1-1 0 units).

Sunday, 02/12/2023 (85) ANAHEIM vs. (86) VEGAS
Favoring: Over on the total.
Play Over - Any team against the total (ANAHEIM) - poor offensive team - scoring <=2.55 goals/game on the season - 2nd half of the season, after allowing 4 goals or more
(100-55 over the last 5 seasons.) (64.5%, +41.3 units. Rating=2*)
The situation's record this season is: (6-2 +3.8 units).

Old Post 02-12-23 01:22 PM
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Sunday, 02/12/2023 (79) EDMONTON vs. (80) MONTREAL
Favoring: MONTREAL on the money line.
MONTREAL is 10-6 (+18.4 Units) against the money line versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 0.5+ goals/G - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was MONTREAL 3.5, OPPONENT 2.9 - (Rating = 5*)

Sunday, 02/12/2023 (81) SEATTLE vs. (82) PHILADELPHIA
Favoring: SEATTLE on the money line.
SEATTLE is 23-14 (+14.4 Units) against the money line against excellent power play teams - scoring on > 19% of their chances this season.
The average score was SEATTLE 3.6, OPPONENT 3.1 - (Rating = 2*)

Sunday, 02/12/2023 (81) SEATTLE vs. (82) PHILADELPHIA
Favoring: PHILADELPHIA on the money line.
SEATTLE is 2-18 (-15.5 Units) against the money line in road games against excellent power play teams - scoring on > 19% of their chances in the 2nd half of the year over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was SEATTLE 2.1, OPPONENT 3.9 - (Rating = 2*)

Sunday, 02/12/2023 (81) SEATTLE vs. (82) PHILADELPHIA
Favoring: PHILADELPHIA on the money line.
SEATTLE is 2-19 (-15.1 Units) against the money line in road games against good offensive teams - >=29 shots on goal, convert >=17% pp - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was SEATTLE 2.2, OPPONENT 4 - (Rating = 2*)

Old Post 02-12-23 01:23 PM
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Sunday, 02/12/2023 (83) SAN JOSE vs. (84) WASHINGTON
Favoring: Over on the total.
SAN JOSE is 23-7 OVER (+15.5 Units) against poor defensive teams - allowing 2.85+ goals/game this season.
The average score was SAN JOSE 3.3, OPPONENT 4.1 - (Rating = 4*)

Sunday, 02/12/2023 (79) EDMONTON vs. (80) MONTREAL
Favoring: Under on the total.
MONTREAL is 15-4 UNDER (+10.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
The average score was MONTREAL 2.1, OPPONENT 3.5 - (Rating = 3*)

Sunday, 02/12/2023 (79) EDMONTON vs. (80) MONTREAL
Favoring: Under on the total.
MONTREAL is 12-2 UNDER (+9.8 Units) against good teams - outscoring their opponents by 0.3+ goals/game this season.
The average score was MONTREAL 2, OPPONENT 3.6 - (Rating = 3*)

Sunday, 02/12/2023 (79) EDMONTON vs. (80) MONTREAL
Favoring: Over on the total.
EDMONTON is 34-16 OVER (+16.5 Units) in all games this season.
The average score was EDMONTON 3.7, OPPONENT 3.2 - (Rating = 3*)

Old Post 02-12-23 01:24 PM
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msudogs
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Seattle will look to avoid its first four-game losing streak of the season Sunday as it visits Wells Fargo Arena for a date with the Flyers.

The Kraken have been one of the better road teams in the league at 16-8-2 and are favored to take advantage of a lowly Flyers team skating the second leg of a back-to-back.

Seattle was never likely to be as lethal offensively as it looked throughout December and early January, when even strength shots were going in at a borderline historic rate.

Now, the opposite seems to be true. The Kraken have suffered through heavy offensive regression to start this road trip and have tallied just four total goals in losses to the Islanders, Devils and Rangers. On this trip, Seattle is scoring on just 4.42% of its shots on goal.

Save for a 4-0 thrashing at the hands of the Islanders, the Kraken’s overall process has still looked very reasonable recently. In fact, this could be a good time to buy back in on the Kraken.

Seattle will be without leading scorer Andre Burakovsky for this contest, but should be skating at full strength otherwise, which leaves a wealth of talents for Philadelphia to keep in check.

Seattle makes up for a lack of superstar talent with an extremely deep and well rounded roster, which is scoring 3.48 goals per game (seventh in NHL).

It may not be a truly elite team the rest of the way, but Seattle’s +17 goal differential and steady underlying numbers are both key indicators that the surprisingly strong first half of the season wasn’t a fluke.

Martin Jones finally faltering in goal has been another reason Seattle has come back down to earth.

Cam York, 22, has been displaying some really strong form of late and is one of few bright spots on what is a very concerning blue-line moving forward.

Over the past six games, Philadelphia owns an expected goals rating of just 43.71%, which has been par for the course of what was always going to be somewhat of a lost season due to the talent on the roster.

Goaltender Carter Hart has been brilliant for the Flyers, and could realistically be in the running for the Vezina this season on a better team. Hart has the sixth-best GSAx rating (+18) and a .913 save % through 39 appearances.

However, Hart hasn’t started both legs of a back-to-back at any point this season, so it is safe to assume Felix Sandstrom will take the net Sunday.

Seattle’s cinderella season has fallen off the rails recently, but this is the perfect spot for a deep Kraken team to get right with two points.

Philadelphia continues to get outplayed fairly consistently and matches up poorly versus teams with numerous lines capable of doing damage offensively.

On top of that, Philadelphia will likely be skating in front of Sandstrom, who is a significant drop off from Hart.

Official confirmation of that will likely move the betting prices, despite the fact that the chances Philadelphia chooses to go back-to-back with its best player is extremely slim.

Old Post 02-12-23 03:48 PM
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msudogs
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Favorites went 8-6 with the biggest upsets by the Blue Jackets (+300 in 4-3 win at Maple Leafs), Canadiens (+180 in 4-3 OT win vs. Islanders), Rangers (+175 in 6-2 win at Hurricanes) and Capitals (+170 in 2-1 win at Bruins). Road teams went 8-6. Overs led 8-6.

Old Post 02-12-23 05:23 PM
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