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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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NCAAB Lagniappe 2/11
Saturday, 02/11/2023 (665) BOWLING GREEN vs. (666) BALL ST
Favoring: BALL ST against the spread.
Play Against - Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (BOWLING GREEN) - an good offensive team (74-78 PPG) against an average defensive team (67-74 PPG) after 15+ games, after allowing 85 points or more
(40-11 over the last 5 seasons.) (78.4%, +27.9 units. Rating=4*)
The situation's record this season is: (6-1 +4.9 units).
Saturday, 02/11/2023 (1657) HOUSTON CHRISTIAN vs. (1658) INCARNATE WORD
Favoring: INCARNATE WORD against the spread.
Play Against - Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (HOUSTON CHRISTIAN) - an good offensive team (74-78 PPG) against an average defensive team (67-74 PPG) after 15+ games, after allowing 85 points or more
(40-11 over the last 5 seasons.) (78.4%, +27.9 units. Rating=4*)
The situation's record this season is: (6-1 +4.9 units).
Saturday, 02/11/2023 (617) GEORGE WASHINGTON vs. (618) ST JOSEPHS
Favoring: ST JOSEPHS against the spread.
Play Against - Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (GEORGE WASHINGTON) - an good offensive team (74-78 PPG) against an average defensive team (67-74 PPG) after 15+ games, after allowing 85 points or more
(40-11 over the last 5 seasons.) (78.4%, +27.9 units. Rating=4*)
The situation's record this season is: (6-1 +4.9 units)
Saturday, 02/11/2023 (731) APPALACHIAN ST vs. (732) S ALABAMA
Favoring: APPALACHIAN ST against the spread.
Play On - Any team (APPALACHIAN ST) - in a game involving two average free throw shooting teams (65-69%), cold shooting team - 3 straight games making <=40% of their shots
(92-39 over the last 5 seasons.) (70.2%, +49.1 units. Rating=3*)
The situation's record this season is: (10-3 +6.7 units).
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02-11-23 10:20 AM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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Saturday, 02/11/2023 (669) WM & MARY vs. (670) ELON
Favoring: WM & MARY on the first half line.
Play Against - A home team vs. the 1rst half line (ELON) - average defensive team (42.5-45%) against a poor defensive team (45-47.5%) after 15+ games, after 2 straight games - attempting 10+ less free throws than opponent
(71-26 since 1997.) (73.2%, +42.4 units. Rating=4*)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0 +1 units).
Saturday, 02/11/2023 (809) LONG BEACH ST vs. (810) CS-BAKERSFIELD
Favoring: CS-BAKERSFIELD on the first half line.
Play Against - Road favorites vs. the 1rst half line (LONG BEACH ST) - after 2 or more consecutive overs, a good offensive team (74-78 PPG) against a horrible offensive team (<=63 PPG)
(30-6 over the last 5 seasons.) (83.3%, +23.4 units. Rating=4*)
The situation's record this season is: (5-2 +2.8 units).
Saturday, 02/11/2023 (633) HOFSTRA vs. (634) MONMOUTH
Favoring: MONMOUTH on the first half line.
Play Against - Favorites of 6 or more points vs. the first half line (HOFSTRA) - average offensive team (67-74 PPG) against a horrible offensive team (<=63 PPG), after 2 straight wins by 10 points or more
(31-7 over the last 5 seasons.) (81.6%, +23.3 units. Rating=3*)
The situation's record this season is: (3-1 +1.9 units).
Saturday, 02/11/2023 (809) LONG BEACH ST vs. (810) CS-BAKERSFIELD
Favoring: CS-BAKERSFIELD on the first half line.
Play Against - A road team vs. the 1rst half line (LONG BEACH ST) - after 2 or more consecutive overs, a good offensive team (74-78 PPG) against a horrible offensive team (<=63 PPG)
(33-8 over the last 5 seasons.) (80.5%, +24.2 units. Rating=3*)
The situation's record this season is: (5-2 +2.8 units).
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02-11-23 03:50 PM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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The Texas Longhorns strive to rebound from their recent loss at Allen Fieldhouse when they host the West Virginia Mountaineers on Saturday.
The Longhorns are currently atop the Big 12 standings with an 8-3 record in conference play, but there are four teams behind them at 7-4. Texas defeated West Virginia in Morgantown in the last meeting and has played really well in Austin; Texas has only lost at home once this season.
West Virginia had a tough start to conference play, losing its first five games. However, the team has won four of its last six — including back-to-back wins at home against Oklahoma and Iowa State.
Head coach Bob Huggins’ team is currently projected to be a 9-seed in the NCAA Tournament, and a win in Austin would help solidify West Virginia’s resume.
The Mountaineers went through a rough stretch to begin Big 12 play, but it seems as if they have finally turned a corner.
The problems for Huggins’ team have not been on the offensive end of the court. The Mountaineers are 17th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency, per KenPom.
However, West Virginia really is a bad shooting team. In conference play, WVU ranks ninth in effective field goal percentage (eFG%) and averages a paltry 48.4% from 2-point range — the worst mark in the Big 12.
The Mountaineers compensate for these shooting difficulties by crashing the offensive glass at an incredibly high level. West Virginia boasts the second-highest offensive rebounding percentage during conference play.
The team’s other path to offensive success comes via the charity stripe. West Virginia gets to the free throw line at the eighth-highest rate in the country.
The last time these teams faced off in Morgantown, Texas limited West Virginia to 18 free throw attempts and eight offensive rebounds, effectively neutralizing two of the Mountaineers’ greatest strengths. Moreover, Texas did what it does best on defense, forcing 20 turnovers.
Nevertheless, defense has been the real issue for West Virginia this season. The Mountaineers rank 38th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, per KenPom.
They have defended the 3-point line at an elite level during conference play, allowing only 31.7% — but Texas is not a high-volume 3-point shooting team.
In order to slow down the Longhorns offense, opponents must defend well in transition.
Texas spend 15% of its possessions in transition, which is the third-highest rate in Division-I basketball. The last time Texas faced West Virginia, it put up 1.46 points per possession (PPP) in transition, which is well above its season average.
Texas’ shot distribution is heavily oriented towards shots at the rim and in the midrange. That is where Texas has attempted 64% of its shots this season.
The Longhorns have been shooting lights-out from the midrange — boasting a 46% team shooting percentage from that spot. Texas also ranks top-10 in PPP on shot attempts at the rim.
In the previous meeting, 40 of the Longhorns’ 55 field goal attempts came at the rim or from the midrange. That is also where they scored 42 of their 69 points. (Nice.)
Despite giving up 88 points to Kansas on Monday, the Longhorns defense has been good this season. It’s important to acknowledge the pace of Monday’s game, which featured 76 possessions. So, Texas only allowed 1.05 PPP — which is still bad, but not as bad as it seems in the final box score.
The Longhorns are seventh in the Big 12 in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, but they do two things very well that are imperative againstWest Virginia:
Texas forces turnovers at a top-30 rate in Division-I.
Texas is an outstanding rebounding team.
These two qualities are the main reasons why Texas defeated West Virginia in Morgantown earlier this season.
This is a really good spot for the Longhorns. Texas returns home after its loss to Kansas and has a rest advantage over West Virginia.
The Mountaineers may be riding high after its back-to-back wins in Morgantown, but the road has not been kind to them. West Virginia has only won two road games all season, whereas Texas has only lost at home once.
If Texas is able to keep West Virginia off the offensive glass, keep them off the free throw line, and turn the Mountaineers over at high rate — then West Virginia is unlikely to exceed its mark of 0.85 PPP in the previous matchup between these teams.
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02-11-23 04:08 PM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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Saturday, 02/11/2023 (769) TULSA vs. (770) UCF
Favoring: UCF against the spread.
TULSA is 0-13 ATS (-14.3 Units) after 2 straight games with 9 or less offensive rebounds this season.
The average score was TULSA 63.5, OPPONENT 80.9 - (Rating = 7*)
Saturday, 02/11/2023 (641) VIRGINIA TECH vs. (642) NOTRE DAME
Favoring: VIRGINIA TECH against the spread.
NOTRE DAME is 0-10 ATS (-11 Units) after having lost 2 of their last 3 games this season.
The average score was NOTRE DAME 68.6, OPPONENT 77.2 - (Rating = 6*)
Saturday, 02/11/2023 (769) TULSA vs. (770) UCF
Favoring: UCF against the spread.
TULSA is 0-10 ATS (-11 Units) after a loss by 10 points or more this season.
The average score was TULSA 63.6, OPPONENT 82.9 - (Rating = 6*)
Saturday, 02/11/2023 (769) TULSA vs. (770) UCF
Favoring: UCF against the spread.
TULSA is 0-10 ATS (-11 Units) after 1 or more consecutive unders this season.
The average score was TULSA 63.4, OPPONENT 75.8 - (Rating = 6*)
Saturday, 02/11/2023 (1619) ALBANY vs. (1620) BINGHAMTON
Favoring: BINGHAMTON against the spread.
ALBANY is 2-15 ATS (-14.5 Units) after 2 straight games giving up 9 or less offensive rebounds this season.
The average score was ALBANY 60.9, OPPONENT 77 - (Rating = 5*)
Saturday, 02/11/2023 (623) S ILLINOIS vs. (624) DRAKE
Favoring: S ILLINOIS against the spread.
DRAKE is 0-9 ATS (-9.9 Units) after a win by 10 points or more this season.
The average score was DRAKE 71.9, OPPONENT 71.3 - (Rating = 5*)
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02-11-23 04:30 PM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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Saturday, 02/11/2023 (631) NEBRASKA-OMAHA vs. (632) N DAKOTA
Favoring: Over on the total.
N DAKOTA is 12-0 OVER (+12 Units) after one or more consecutive overs this season.
The average score was N DAKOTA 78.2, OPPONENT 76.4 - (Rating = 7*)
Saturday, 02/11/2023 (815) GRAND CANYON vs. (816) SEATTLE
Favoring: Over on the total.
GRAND CANYON is 12-0 OVER (+12 Units) after 3 or more consecutive overs this season.
The average score was GRAND CANYON 74.9, OPPONENT 71.5 - (Rating = 7*)
Saturday, 02/11/2023 (815) GRAND CANYON vs. (816) SEATTLE
Favoring: Over on the total.
GRAND CANYON is 13-0 OVER (+13 Units) after 2 or more consecutive overs this season.
The average score was GRAND CANYON 75.5, OPPONENT 71.6 - (Rating = 7*)
Saturday, 02/11/2023 (1631) MERRIMACK vs. (1632) ST FRANCIS-PA
Favoring: Under on the total.
MERRIMACK is 12-0 UNDER (+12 Units) after 2 straight games with 12 or less assists this season.
The average score was MERRIMACK 56.9, OPPONENT 62.1 - (Rating = 7*)
Saturday, 02/11/2023 (739) MISSISSIPPI ST vs. (740) ARKANSAS
Favoring: Under on the total.
MISSISSIPPI ST is 14-1 UNDER (+12.9 Units) after 1 or more consecutive wins this season.
The average score was MISSISSIPPI ST 66.6, OPPONENT 53.4 - (Rating = 6*)
Saturday, 02/11/2023 (635) MURRAY ST vs. (636) BRADLEY
Favoring: Over on the total.
MURRAY ST is 10-0 OVER (+10 Units) after 3 consecutive conference games this season.
The average score was MURRAY ST 70.4, OPPONENT 78.6 - (Rating = 6*)
Saturday, 02/11/2023 (1657) HOUSTON CHRISTIAN vs. (1658) INCARNATE WORD
Favoring: Over on the total.
INCARNATE WORD is 10-0 OVER (+10 Units) after 1 or more consecutive losses this season.
The average score was INCARNATE WORD 76.5, OPPONENT 76.8 - (Rating = 6*)
Saturday, 02/11/2023 (815) GRAND CANYON vs. (816) SEATTLE
Favoring: Over on the total.
GRAND CANYON is 11-0 OVER (+11 Units) against conference opponents this season.
The average score was GRAND CANYON 75.5, OPPONENT 72 - (Rating = 6*)
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02-11-23 04:32 PM |
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