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Glentoran v Warrenpoint | Saturday 11th January 2020

For the first time on our World Football column, we’re going to delve into the top-flight of football in Northern Ireland this weekend. We’re quite a way through the season in the Northern Irish Premiership, with teams playing roughly 23 or 24 games. It may only be a 12-team division by we have a five-way tussle at the top, with all sides separated by only four points.

One of those five in question is Glentoran, who find themselves in fourth on 47 points, some three points behind top of the table Cliftonville. At the other end of the scale however we have poor old Warrenpoint, who sit at the bottom with only 13-points, although they are only bottom below Institute on goal difference.

Warrenpoint have scored the fewest with 19 and conceded the most with 69, but it is not all bad though! They have claimed four points across their last two away matches, including an important victory at Institute, and a creditable draw at mid-table Glenavon.

It won’t come as any surprise to see Glentoran as a rather short price to claim maximum points on Saturday afternoon. Only Linfield has claimed more home points than they’ve done, whilst only Crusaders and Coleraine have scored more goals overall in the current league campaign. Only Linfield have more goals at home, whilst only Cliftonville and Linfield have conceded less at home. They’re pretty good at home!

Glentoran are also unbeaten in league action since October 4th, and they’ve since been away to Warrenpoint in that time and left comfortable 4-0 winners. Therefore, they’ve unbeaten in 13, and have won each of their last four ‘to nil’. Warrenpoint did at least claim a morale-boosting midweek cup victory, but that was a rare success for them in what has been a tough campaign thus far.

Warrenpoint had lost every single away league game this season prior to their last two, and they’ve conceded an average of 3.08 goals on the road, too. You only have to rattle off some of their away results this season to showcase some of their struggles, and 7-0, 6-0 and three 4-0’s makes for rather grim reading.

The reality is that they tend to crumble away when conceding, as at home they’ve lost plenty too, but not to the same level of severity.

Glentoran are often among the goals as well, and their last five home league wins read 3-1, 3-1, 6-1, 3-0 and 2-0, and that 3-0 was against reigning champions Linfield. Taking this into account and how leaky Warrenpoint are, I’m pleasantly surprised to see we can get a price of 19/20 (Unibet) on Glentoran Over 2.5 Goals.

The only way this doesn’t really pay-out is if Warrenpoint produce a defensive masterclass or the keeper plays a blinder, but they’re shipping goals far too regularly, especially away, to believe that’ll happen out of the blue.

Manchester United V Norwich | Saturday 11th January 2020, 10:00

It was yet another disappointing night for Ole Gunnar Solskjaer on Tuesday as Manchester United were swept aside by their nearest rivals and were rather fortunate to get away with just a two-goal defeat.

United currently find themselves in fifth in the Premier League but are five points behind Chelsea. In theory at least, a home game against Norwich represents their easiest task of the season and failure to win could have a damning effect on the Norwegian’s time at Old Trafford.

I do expect United to win this one but don’t expect it to be comfortable. To date this season, they’ve already lost to strugglers Watford and Bournemouth and at home to Crystal Palace. They’ve also failed to win at home to Aston Villa so there will be very few home fans thinking of this game as a banker.

Norwich’s problems are obvious – they concede too many leads and too many goals in general. To date this term they have let in 41, four more than any other side. They’ve also failed to gain a single point on the 13 occasions they have conceded first. They have however, like United, seen both sides oblige in 13 of their 21 (62%) matches so far this term.

All this leads me to believe that a home win with both sides netting is the way to go, especially with the home side so shorn of defensive options. That is available at 15/8 with Boylesports and obliged when these two met at Carrow Road.

The Norfolk side will certainly cause Solskjaer’s team problems, but Messrs Rashford, James and Martial should make their class count again.

Wolves v Newcastle | Saturday 11th January 2020, 10:00

Every league seems to have a side defying the data and Newcastle are certainly that in the top-flight of English football. Steve Bruce’s side have gained an impressive 25 points from their first 21 matches this season but the Expected Goals (xG) data suggests that should be nearer 15.

The Geordies have been boosted by a lot of single goal victories, often via goals from defenders and there is a concern about the reliance of goals from this area. Striker Joelinton has just one goal from 21 games and the attacking pair of Allan Saint-Maximum and Miguel Almiron have also looked poor in front of goal.

That said, the former in particular is a real asset from open play and he may well be back from injury for this encounter.

Even if the Frenchman is, I like the look of a Wolves victory and Under 3.5 Goals to be scored here. To date this season, Newcastle have lost seven of their 10 away fixtures and only three have contained three goals or fewer. However, those other defeats came against Norwich, Liverpool, Leicester and Manchester United, all of whom tend to see more goals than Wolves games.

This bet has landed in three of Wolves’ four home victories this season and given that the last three games between these two have contained just seven goals, I struggle to see a goalfest.

Palace look likely to avoid relegation, despite scoring only 19 goals through 21 games. They’ll be looking up at the European places if they keep this form up. A win against Arsenal would go a long way towards reaching the top seven. Palace have struggled to score, but Arsenal’s poor defence could be a big opportunity.

Arsenal have improved under Mikel Arteta and have two consecutive wins for the first time since early October. The rest of the season is all about evaluating and improving performances for them. That said, they would still like to win games. Top four is unlikely, but not totally out of sight. It will be out of sight if they don’t win games like this.

TEAM NEWS
Crystal Palace have a huge injury crisis on their hands. Andros Townsend, Jeffrey Schlupp, Joel Ward, Scott Dann, Patrick Van Aanholt and Mamadou Sahko are already ruled out, while Christian Benteke, Max Meyer, Jairo Riedewald, Victor Camarasa and Wilfried Zaha are all doubts, according to PremierInjuries.com. Luka Milivojevic is out through suspension on top of all of the injuries.

Arsenal have injury issues of their own with Calum Chambers and Kieran Tierney ruled out and Hector Bellerin doubtful, according to PremierInjuries.com.

KEY PLAYERS
Crystal Palace: Wilfried Zaha


Zaha hasn’t hit the heights of last season, but he is still Palace’s most important player. His dribbling ability could be devastating against Arsenal’s makeshift wingbacks. Palace have struggled for creativity all season and need Zaha to have a prayer of creating chances consistently.

Arsenal: Mesut Ozil

Ozil has seen a revival in the early part of the Arteta era. He has been back in the team and getting in more space than he has in ages. His creative passing still isn’t what it used to be, but his ball progression has been a welcome addition. He still has more cutting edge in the final third than anyone else on this team and that he is needed in the short term.

PREDICTION
Palace’s injury issues really hold them back. They may really struggle to score and Arsenal’s improvement is significant enough to give them a good chance in this match.

Prediction: 2-1 Arsenal

Tottenham v Liverpool | Saturday 11th January 2020, 12:30 | Sky Sports

The big game of the weekend takes place in North London on Saturday evening as Spurs host perennial champions Liverpool. Jose Mourinho has an almighty task ahead of him in order to defeat a side who have dropped points just once this season. It’s a quite remarkable record and it warrants the 4/6 quotes available on the Reds, the shortest price they’ve ever been away at a top-six side in the Premier League.

Spurs were dealt a big blow with the news that talisman Harry Kane has been ruled out until April. That’s meant Tottenham are after a possible loan deal until the end of the season for Milan frontman Krzysztof Piatek but any deal won’t happen before Saturday.

The hosts are also without Tanguy N’Dombele and Moussa Sissoko in midfield, which leaves them lacking legs and energy with the possible duo of Harry Winks and Eric Dier at the base. It’s not all doom and gloom though, Heung-Min Son is back from suspension and could lead the line with Lucas Moura.

Liverpool have come through their busy December schedule with flying colours. They came back from Qatar as world champions and got straight back into it with comfortable wins over Sheffield United and Leicester. Jurgen Klopp saw his mean struggle to keep clean sheets in the early part of the season but their defensive process has improved immeasurably since December.

In the last five games the Reds have restricted their opposition to an average of 0.50 Expected Goals (xG) per-game, keeping clean sheets in all five of those. Going forward they have that cutting edge with the front three who were well rested last week as Klopp fielded a youth side in their win over rivals Everton.

Spurs have been dour going forward in the past few weeks too; Jose Mourinho is clearly isn't getting his methods across with these numbers. It won’t take long for things to turn sour in that relationship – Jose has had his day and get’s out-thought too often in this day and age.

Spurs will probably look to sit deep and try and get Moura and Son in behind the flying full backs but it’s so hard to play against Liverpool because their fitness levels are insane. If they bypass the high press then the recovery pace of the back four is superb which make them a frightening proposition.

Oppose goals in the capital
The more I look at it the more Liverpool appeal however with Mourinho historically playing party-pooper there’s another market that makes appeal.

Dipping into the Asian goal line we can see it set at a flat 3.00 and I’m more than inclined to take that on and take the unders at around the 17/20 mark with BetVictor. Backing this selection means we only lose money should there be four or more goals and that’s only occurred in a single Liverpool away game this season.

Spurs will look to limit the threat from Liverpool which hampers their own attacking threat and it could be a bit of a stand-off. Only one of Tottenham's’ last five fixtures have gone Over 3.5 Goals and without Kane and Jose’s usually MO against the big dogs, it may be a game that fails to live up to the hype.

I also think that the odd price of 57/20 from Marathon on the 0-0 half time correct score looks a big price. This market is usually 2/1 or shorter but here you’re getting almost 3/1. I think both sides wouldn’t be too disappointed if they went into the break all square.

The last Spurs game this landed against Middlesbrough in the FA Cup and in all honesty I expected it to be a touch shorter so I think it’s worth a small play at the price.

BetShare
TOT/LIV

Spread
TOT (+0.75) 33%
LIV (-0.75) 67%

ML
Tottenham 10%
Liverpool 69%
Draw 21%

Tot (2.75)
Ov 65%
Un 35%

Bournemouth v Watford | Sunday 12th January 2020, 9:00 | Sky Sports

I wouldn't be at all surprised if Watford are a popular pick on Sunday afternoon given the recent fortunes of these two sides. Bournemouth have just four points from their last 10 Premier League matches while Watford have seen a performance and result boost since Quique Sanchez Flores left the Hornets. They have 10 points from their last four games, with wins against Wolves and Manchester United in that sample.

However, I cannot back them at 7/4 when the Hertfordshire side have just one away victory so far this season. Moreover, while they have clearly performed well under Nigel Pearson I do think they've had some fortune in each of their victories. While they deserved to beat both United and Aston Villa, they were benefitted by goalkeeping howlers and refereeing decisions in both of them.

There is no doubt that Bournemouth's recent form has been wretched and they have one of the most severe injury lists in the top flight. Nathan Ake, David Brooks and Josh King are key absentees and without the latter two the Dorset side have far less attacking threat.
Since they were promoted to the Premier League in 2015, Bournemouth have been indebted to their forwards for keeping them in the division as they have found it difficult to keep clean sheets. However, during their recent poor run they have struggled to score goals, finding the net just twice in their last seven games.
Since Sanchez Flores left, Watford have been far more solid defensively, conceding just six goals in their seven league games since the start of December. Given that they've faced five of the current top seven in that sample that is a great effort.
All this leads me to oppose goals. There have been three or more in just five of Bournemouth's last 14 league games and only two of Watford's seven matches under Hayden Mullins and Nigel Pearson. Under 2.5 Goals is 10/11 with Bet365 and that gets my vote.

"Roma have performed fairly well against the Old Lady in recent times and at the Olimpico alone, they’re W5-D3-L1 across all competitions since 2011/12"

9 of the last 12 meetings between Bournemouth and Watford have ended all-square.

Aston Villa v Manchester City | Sunday 12th January 2020, 11:30 | Sky Sports

Two teams that garnered decent results midweek in the EFL Cup meet at Villa Park on Sunday afternoon. It’s always a difficult task to try and get value out of Manchester City games as prices are always prohibitive in a whole host of markets.

I’d fancy City to win this but it looks a stretch backing them to overcome the handicap lines given the fact they concede so often. Aymeric Laporte’s return to fitness can’t come quick enough for Pep Guardiola but he’s got the attacking arsenal to counteract that.

They may have to be patient here though, Villa were surprisingly stout defensively at the King Power the other day and held out for the most part of the game before Leicester scored. They may sit very deep in a low block and draw Man City players forward before trying to hit them on the break and get some three-on-three situations. The bookies don’t fancy them here though, the hosts are as big as 15/1 to win at home.

The betting angle
In order to try and extract some value I’m going to delve into Coral’s BuildYourBet market and focus on the tackle market. If we put together Jack Grealish, Trezeguet and Kevin De Bruyne to each have 1+ tackle each we get a nice 6/5 quote.

Grealish and Trezeguet both average 1.3 tackles per-game and will surely be defending from the front here as City look to dominate high up the pitch. That makes the attackers a much more sensible pick in the tackle market as the back five will probably be too deep to go and engage.

If Villa set up in a similar style to Wednesday night then these two will be on the flanks and therefore be charged with looking after the threat from wing back from City. They will be much more likely to engage in contrast to the defenders so I’m happy to get them on board.

Also chucking in KDB for a tackle boosts it from 4/6 to 23/20 which looks worth taking. Man City will look to win the ball back high up the pitch and I could see the Belgian playing a deeper midfield role here. He averages 1.5 tackles per-game.