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Traderpro
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Mar 2009
Posts: 4375
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Don't feel bad Brutus, Soccer has it seems like 500 damn leagues across globe. Confuses hell out of me.
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09-21-18 11:58 PM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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EFL
West Brom v Millwall | Saturday 22nd September 2018, 15:00
West Brom produced a clinical counter-attacking display to beat Bristol City 4-2 at The Hawthorns in midweek and move to within touching distance of the automatic promotion places.
Darren Moore’s men were out-shot 11-23 and 7-8 in on-target attempts as the visitors put on an adventurous away display, but were ultimately undone by three goals in eight first-half minutes from the in-form hosts.
Victory was the Baggies’ third success on the spin at their West Midlands base since a shock and unjust opening-day defeat to Bolton. The contest also took their tally to 13 goals scored across those three triumphs, marking Moore’s men out as the division’s deadliest strikeforce.
Albion’s attacking arsenal is comfortably the league’s most threatening, with Dwight Gayle, Jay Rodriguez, Matt Phillips and Harvey Barnes combining to devastating effect. And it’s just as well they are as WBA’s offensive output continues to paper over cracks at the back.
No team in the top-half have conceded more than Albion and only Bolton (128) have faced more shots (127) with Moore’s insistence on playing it out from the back causing particular problems. Saturday’s hosts have yet to record a clean sheet and it’s those issues that push me away from a punt on a home win here.
Instead, I’m delighted to take the 9/10 (Betfair) available on the Baggies to score Over 1.5 Goals. Millwall may provide slightly more stubborn opponents than QPR and Bristol City, but for the second game running Albion have an extra day than their opponents to prepare.
Moore may be tempted to keep the same team that put four past the Robins, but fatigue may play its part, particularly for 37-year-old Gareth Barry. Sam Field and Chris Brunt will be favourites to replace him in the engine room but that delightful attacking quartet should remain untouched.
West Brom are averaging 1.29 Expected Goals per-game from open play, and only Wigan (77) and Brentford (84) have fired in more attempts from inside the penalty area (70). Therefore, the West Midlanders should be more than capable of grabbing at least two goals.
Millwall are set to ring the changes following their midweek London derby loss to QPR. Manager Neil Harris admitted he picked the wrong team for that encounter – the Lions’ fourth loss in five (W0-D1-L4) – and felt his team were out-worked by the R’s. He’s promised to pick a line-up more ‘Millwall-like’ here.
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09-22-18 09:44 AM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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Burnley v Bournemouth | Saturday 22nd September 2018, 15:00
My initial plans were to back Cardiff +2.5 goals this weekend on the Asian Handicap line, but having seen Manchester City lose to Lyon, I think Pep may get a strong performance from his team in the Welsh capital.
Instead, I’ll go further north as two sides I tipped for relegation battle it out at Turf Moor. It’s accurate to say that it’s been a mixed bag for the pair.
Burnley have struggled all season, earning just one point from five games and finding themselves bottom of the table. Bournemouth, in contrast, have 10 points and have impressed in every fixture, including their 2-0 defeat at Chelsea.
The Cherries are clearly the side in form, but I simply cannot have them as favourites to win this encounter. Burnley’s performance data has been pretty poor for the last two to three seasons and that is no different this term.
However, it is worth noting that their actual results have been fairly impressive, particularly at home. Against sides outside of the top six, the Clarets record since returning to the top-flight two seasons ago reads W16-D6-L5. By contrast, away from home against the same opposition, Bournemouth have W7-D10-L10.
I don’t doubt that Bournemouth are the better side and fully expect them to finish higher in the table. However, there is simply too much recency bias in the prices for my liking and Marathon‘s 27/25 on Burnley in the Draw No Bet market is too big to ignore.
Across the 27-game sample I refer to, Burnley’s most common result has been a 1-0 victory, something they’ve achieved on eight occasions. At 9/1 with Bet365 this is surely a value bet.
I fully expect a vociferous home crowd to ensure that Burnley have added to their solitary point by 5pm on Saturday.
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09-22-18 09:44 AM |
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