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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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Saturday, June 30
France vs. Argentina, 10 a.m. ET
Three-way moneyline (regulation only): France (+141), Argentina (+244), Draw (+210)
To advance: No line yet
Over/Under: 2 (-108/-107)
France won Group C without much of a problem, although they didn’t look all that impressive. Les Bleus finished with two wins and a draw, scoring three goals and allowing one along the way. The road to the knockout rounds was a lot trickier for Argentina. After drawing against Iceland and losing to Croatia, La Albiceleste rescued a late win against Nigeria to finish second in Group D.
Uruguay vs. Portugal, 2 p.m., ET
Three-way moneyline: Uruguay (+177), Portugal (+210), Draw (+195)
To advance: Uruguay (-119), Portugal (-101)
Over/Under: 2 (+109/-124)
Uruguay won Group A with a win 3-0 win over Russia while Portugal finished second in Group B thanks to a draw against Iran. Uruguay made it through the group stage without allowing a single goal, while Portugal finished with one win and two draws, scoring five goals and allowing four.
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06-27-18 12:58 AM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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France vs. Argentina, 10 a.m. ET, FOX
France +140
Argentina +255
Draw +210
Bet To Watch
Draw +210
It took a very late game-winner against Nigeria in the final group match in order to advance, but Argentina somehow found a way to progress. They have not played well in any of the three games so far despite having a plethora of talent available, and coach Jorge Sampaoli has struggled to find the right strategies and lineups. Against France, they’ll need to have a clear and direct plan of attack.
France were the winners of Group C, beating Peru and Australia before drawing with Denmark in the final group match. They weren’t the most convincing in any of those games but looked more like a team than Argentina, and have defended much better as well (1 goal conceded vs. 5).
Argentina does have a few things going for them, starting with the fact that they have Leo Messi. If they can get him the ball in better positions, the attack will open up much quicker and the build-up won’t be so stagnant. Easier said than done as N’Golo Kante will have an eye on him.
Another positive is that they looked done and defeated against Croatia, but still found a way in the end to respond and beat Nigeria. Sure, they were -200 favorites to do so, but Germany were -500 to beat South Korea and got blanked, 2-0, with their tournament on the line. Nothing can be taken for granted in the World Cup.
La Albiceleste could be without midfielder Enzo Perez, and I wonder if we’ll see Angel Di Maria stay in the lineup out wide. I’d imagine Gonzalo Higuain gets another start up top, but that leaves Sergio Aguero and Paolo Dybala on the bench once again.
Les Bleus may be without defender Samuel Umtiti but are otherwise healthy. They are -145 favorites to advance past Argentina (+125), but they may need extra time to do it.
Oddsmakers are expecting a tight, low-scoring match but public bettors are not. More than 80% of bets is on over 2 goals, but odds have shifted toward the under (-101 to -110). Sharper bettors believe that this could be a 0-0 or 1-0 result in 90 minutes, and at worse a 1-1 finish.
Fewer goals certainly helps the draw, yet only 9% of tickets has been placed on it. Both Argentina (+255) and France (+140) are getting about 45% of the moneyline bets, so the draw is also a great contrarian angle to take here.
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06-30-18 07:52 AM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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Portugal vs. Uruguay, 2 p.m. ET, Fox
Portugal +194
Uruguay +185
Draw +187
Bet to Watch:
Uruguay to advance -112 (5Dimes)
The old cliche in boxing is that ‘styles make fights.’ This match is no different. Both Portugal and Uruguay have a well-earned reputation for being pragmatic and hoping for a bit of magic from one of their world-class talents. On paper this has all the makings of an ugly, defensive slugfest and has a real possibility of going all the way.
While that formula is what sent Portugal through Group B — not to mention that it won Portugal a European title two summers ago — I do wonder if Uruguay is straying from the script a little bit. It may look like Uruguay stuck to their guns in their first two matches against Egypt and Saudi Arabia, but they put up 1.7 expected goals (xG) against the former and 1.3 against Saudi Arabia. In their third match, Uruguay completed the Group A sweep with a comprehensive 3-0 win over Russia in their first “real” test.
Portugal on the other hand, posted 0.5 xGs in a 3-3 draw against Spain, 1.4 in a 1-0 win over Morocco and 0.5 in their 1-1 draw against Iran. If it wasn’t for Ronaldo’s heroics and a mesmerizing goal from Ricardo Quaresma, we could be talking about Iran’s chances right now instead of the Iberians’.
But that’s the thing with Portugal. They have Cristiano Ronaldo, and their squad is littered with players such as Quaresma, who may not be a 90-minute soldier but has magic in his feet, and that always gives them a puncher’s chance.
While Ronaldo is the best player on the pitch, the Sky Blues are overall the better team. Uruguay’s centerback duo of Jose Gimenez and Diego Godin is one of the best in the tournament, and the two stalwarts are very familiar with Ronaldo as they both ply their trade for La Liga’s most sound defensive club, Atletico Madrid. Gimenez and Godin are in a different class compared to Portugal’s Jose Fonte and Pepe. The two veteran defenders can be solid on their day, but they are more of an unknown quantity at this point in their careers and they will be tested by Luis Suarez and Edinson Cavani.
The betting odds echo my sentiment here. Uruguay are the slightest of favorites around the market, and money has come in on the draw. The total — which is as low as 1.75 at Bookmaker — also indicates that this is not an easy one to call.
In the end, I think Uruguay’s talent will win out. The odds imply that Los Charruas have ~ 52.8% odds of advancing, and I think that’s low. They’re the better team, so that’s where I’m looking.
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06-30-18 07:58 AM |
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