feel free to chime in with anything no matter how odd ball

Online sports book topbetsports has closed the bet on Lady Gaga's 1st halftime song after getting slammed with Poker Face action yesterday.

Atlanta scored a TD on the first drive of its last eight games; hard to do.

In Brady’s six Super Bowls, New England scored zero first quarter points.

Football squares are one of the simplest and most common ways for football fans to bet on the Super Bowl, but many are unfamiliar with the rules and strategy for this basic betting opportunity. Start by taking an empty 10 x 10 sheet and labeling each axis from 0-9. Next, assign one team to the x-axis and one team to the y-axis. In this case, that would be the New England Patriots and Atlanta Falcons.

The goal is to fill out all 100 squares, representing every potential outcome of the game. Typically this is a randomized process where bettors pick their squares out of a hat, and most pools will pay out prizes based on the score at the end of each quarter with the largest payout going to the person with the correct final score. Normally 50% of the pot will be rewarded for the final score, 30% of the pot will be rewarded for the halftime score, and 10% of the pot will be rewarded after the first and third quarters.

The winner is determined by looking at the last number in each teams’ score and then matching those numbers on the grid to see which square intersects those two numbers. If the New England Patriots win the game 31-28, then the owner of NE 1, ATL 8 would be victorious.

Because these numbers are picked at random, there is no skill or handicapping involved, but certain numbers are more valuable than others. For example, 0’s, 3’s and 7’s are very profitable while 2’s and 9’s have been uncommon numbers.

The Super Bowl is obviously unlike any other game for several different reasons, but there’s something that may alter the outcome of the game more than other factors — the halftime show. Throughout the season, halftime is generally 12 minutes long, which is just long enough for the players to catch their breath and for coaches to set the tone and establish a plan for the second half. In the Super Bowl, halftimes can creep over 30 minutes due to the elaborate performances which may or may not include nip slips, left sharks, and meme-inspiring embarrassing photos.

According to Bet Labs Sports, taking a team that is losing at the half to cover in the second half has not been a profitable trend. However, despite a small sample size, you can see that this hasn’t applied to the Super Bowl. This could be attributed to the long halftime show, but could also just be due to the fact that the team that is losing in the Super Bowl is still an elite team.

If you narrow down the regular season sample size and only look at teams with winning percentages of 60 or greater, this trend doesn’t hold true. These strong teams have gone 382-452 ATS in the 2nd half, which is even worse than the original regular season sample. If you look at 60+% winning teams against other 60+% winning teams, that record gets worse again: 160-220 or a -18.2% ROI. AKA not good. It seems like the long break may have something to do with this trend.
If we look at teams favored in the 2nd half, we see some interesting results. In the regular season, you’re better off taking the dog in the 2nd half. Once we reach the playoffs, the favorite in the 2nd half has actually reigned supreme, but this hasn’t applied to the Super Bowl. The 2nd half dog has gone 7-4 in the Super Bowls in our database.

Once again, this is a small sample size, but still an interesting trend that could definitely be attributed to the long halftime show. Teams that are down at halftime have more time to figure out what went wrong in the first half and adjust accordingly. On the other hand, it’s not as if the winning team is packing it in for the 2nd half of the Super Bowl, but they may not make as many halftime changes and as a result, could get stagnant when play resumes.

If you are looking to go against the public in the 2nd half, it appears that the Super Bowl is the best time to do so. In both the regular season and playoffs leading up to the Super Bowl, teams getting more than 50% of 2nd half bets have actually had the edge.

If you combine the past two trends (underdogs getting less than 50%) the record improves to 6-3 ATS. If you add the first trend (teams losing at the half) to the past two, the record improves to 4-1 ATS in the Super Bowl.

Super Bowl 51 kicks off this Sunday at NRG Stadium in Houston, Texas. The New England Patriots (16-2 SU, 15-3 ATS) are making their seventh appearance of the Brady/Belichick era and, not surprisingly, they’re favored to win their fifth Lombardi Trophy. With a win and cover on Sunday, the Patriots would actually tie the 1989 San Francisco 49ers for the greatest ATS season in league history.

Despite New England’s recent dominance, it’s important that bettors don’t overlook the Atlanta Falcons (13-5 SU, 12-6 ATS). Head coach Dan Quinn is making his third Super Bowl appearance in four seasons, having previously served at the defensive coordinator for the Seattle Seahawks. Led by odds-on regular season MVP favorite Matt Ryan, they run one of the most dynamic offenses in league history, having averaged 33.8 points/game during the regular season.

When the line was first released nearly two weeks ago, the Patriots opened as 3-point favorites at the market-setting Pinnacle sportsbook. Since that time, New England has received 66% of spread tickets and 63% of spread dollars. Although we’ve only had money percentages for one season, that ticket percentage represents historically one-sided public betting. Since 2003, only one team (Denver -1.5 against Seattle in Super Bowl 48) has received more than 66% of spread
Despite this historically lopsided public betting, only one sportsbook has moved off the key number of 3. Treasure Island, a Las Vegas sportsbook, is currently offering Falcons +3.5 (-135). Since most sportsbooks charge 25 cents to buy a half-point, this is no different than the standard spread of Falcons +3 (-110). The only reason Treasure Island is offering this juiced up line is because they don’t want the Patriots to win by exactly 3-points, which would result in a push. By offering the hook, they guarantee action on the spread.

Although no offshore sportsbook has moved off Patriots -3, it’s worth noting that oddsmakers have been adjusting their juice all week. Since opening, the Patriots have moved from -3 (+102) to -3 (+106) at Pinnacle. It may not seem major, but the Patriots juice has improved by four cents despite overwhelming public support. This is an example of reverse line movement, which indicates that sharp bettors are leaning towards the Falcons.

Marc Lawrence

100% ATS NFL Super Bowl 4* Super Play!

New England Patriots

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New England-3

WAYNE ROOT

Millionaires--Under 59.5
(Might move up to 60)
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No Limit---New England -3
(Won't move off -3. They might adjust the money line down to -140 Patriots).

The last 16 Super Bowls played, the best offense won just twice. The best defensive team wins Championship Games. The Patriots are without a doubt the best team defensively. Quinn's Atlanta defense was 27th in the NFL in points allowed and starts four rookies, which could be viewed as blood in the water for Brady. With the best coach and quarterback as an added dimension, the Pats win in a very well played game by both sides. If a predicted final score is helpful, we see it going under the total with a final score of 31-24 Patriots winning. Brady was sacked just 15 times and had a TD-to-INT ratio of 28-12. Against Atlanta, a defense built on speed, the Patriots could install an extra offensive lineman or tight end and play power football to force the Falcons to adjust. The defense that grabs the advantage early in crossing up the quarterback will also have a huge advantage. We've seen them play so there are no surprises rather than defensive excellence is usually awarded the Lombardi Trophy. Can't wait to see what Robert Kraft and Tom Brady will do in accepting the trophy from the despised NFL commissioner, Roger Goodell. It makes one think the New England Patriots are extra motivated.

The team who allowed the least points in league have been in SB 17 times and won 13. If against best scoring offensive team 5-1

There is an old sports betting adage that says, “If you aren’t capping refs, you simply aren’t capping.”

OK, that’s not an adage, but personally I’m a firm believer that you need to be at least on nodding terms with the crew that will be officiating the game you want to wager your hard-earned money on. This is most important in baseball more so than any other sport but it’s also beneficial in football and is an aspect that should not go overlooked.

Carl Cheffers and crew will be officiating Super Bowl LI between the New England Patriots and Atlanta Falcons and as I dug into his numbers, I found something that could potentially be of interest if you’re betting Sunday’s game, which you clearly are.

Cheffers has been a referee since the 2008 season and over that stretch, he’s worked eight Patriots games. Now, it should come as no surprise that the Pats have gone 6-2 straight up in those eight games, but they have gone just 2-5-1 against the spread. For a team that has been profitable (55% ATS regular season win rate) in the six different seasons that Cheffers has worked a Pats game (2008-11, 2013, 2015), that stands out.

The Patriots covered the spread in both games Cheffers worked in the 2010 regular season (versus Cincinnati, at Pittsburgh) but that’s it. They have failed to cover the number in three straight Cheffers games (2011 at Buffalo, 2013 versus the New York Jets, 2015 versus Pittsburgh) heading into Super Bowl LI, though they did push last year versus the Steelers.

Now, there is nothing out of the ordinary for the games he’s worked this season, (faves 9-8 ATS, 9-8 O/U)

Worth noting, however, is that nice run of UNDERs Cheffers' games have gone on entering Super Bowl Sunday. Seven of the last nine and three straight games have resulted in cashed UNDER tickets thanks to an average of just 38.4 combined points scored per game.

Referee stats and numbers should never be the foundation of your wager, but there's certainly some instances where it can be good support for your bet. The Pats are normally a +.500 ATS team and when you can isolate a number like a 2-5-1 ATS clip like this, it's something that should be noted.

While Carl Cheffers and crew are certainly one of the better and more respected groups in the league, it will be interesting to see if the Patriots' ATS struggles continue with this ensemble working.

Lady Gaga 1st song prop re-opened. "PokerFace" the -200. "Bad Romance" +450

The team to record the first score in the Super Bowl has gone on to win the game 34 times, including the last six.

Over 110 million people watch the Super Bowl in America every year. And if every one of those people bet a dollar on the game, you still wouldn’t equal the amount of money bet on it in the state of Nevada last year ($119 million).

So you might think setting the odds for such a game would be difficult.

Not exactly.

“It’s one of their (sportsbooks’) easiest weeks of the year as far as I’m concerned. The Super Bowl looks after itself,” says Randall The Handle, an oddsmaker and handicapper who writes a regular sports betting column for the Toronto Sun.

That’s certainly been the case this year. Oddsmakers opened the New England Patriots as 3-point favorites and the line hasn’t moved. I don’t expect it to, either. The total, meanwhile, opened at 58.5 at most online spots and it’s only moved a half-point at most of the books where it’s moved at all.

A popular myth is that other sports have soft lines on Super Bowl Sunday because books are so focused on the big one. It’s just not true. The Super Bowl is a stand-alone football game and by now oddsmakers and bettors know these teams inside out.

The tough part is handicapping what the audience is going to do.

“I think it (this line) was a little bit short, to be honest, but I think it’s because Atlanta has become very sexy and books understand the marketplace,” says Randall. “I think a big factor taken into account by oddsmakers is public sentiment. They know what people are thinking and they have to factor that into the line.”

In terms of the total, I think this number may also be set a little high based on public perception. Matt Ryan vs Tom Brady. The Falcons have the third-highest scoring offense in a Super Bowl, which has helped create the highest Super Bowl total ever.

“I’m not a totals guy but I think it’s high. When you watched Atlanta and Green Bay – and Green Bay’s defense is an invisible defense, as we saw – we still needed an Aaron Rodgers late touchdown to get to 65. You know, that was life-and-death to get there,” says Randle. “Now we’ve got a much better defense than Green Bay and New England’s not a blowout team. So I think it’s a high total. If they could line this one up the same way they lined up Atlanta-Green Bay, it doesn’t make much sense to me.”

Interesting info as always Mike! Thanks

SB 51 will mark the eighth time in which the No. 1 scoring offense will face the No. 1 scoring defense. The defense is 6-1 SU and ATS.

At the most basic level, the NFL is about the battle between offensive and defensive units. So one simple way to evaluate the strength of an NFL team is to look at the average offensive yards gained per play and the average defensive yards allowed per play.

As you would expect, teams that gain more yards than they allow tend to win. While this isn’t exclusively accurate, this measure can be used as a tool to predict future performances.

Falcons win vs Packers was imo reffed straight up. An easy win for Falcons, even though it was expected that GB would be flat in that game seeing how the week before they beat this years Cinderella on the road. Also the way it played out...an historic pin point pass to the sideline, an historic tip-toe catch setting up game winning fg.
Pats vs Steelers was not reffed so fair to say the least. Refs kept Steelers down all day, while letting NE get away with anything. I don't think Pats needed help from refs, but they got it just the same. Now we have this line -3. Weird it hasn't budged in two weeks even with sooo many tickets on the favorite (same as any big game lol.)
Has anyone noticed how hard the books have been working "finessing" the o/u to 50/50? Weird their making the o/u a push. Making it a non factor, yet leaving sooo much money on Pats ats. I also cant help remembering a superbowl 2 years ago when the books lost their asses in a game NE wasn't suppose to win because of the most retarded play call in history from the 6 inch line on 2nd down.
I'm betting falcons small. Sucks though, SB is usually very easy for me to cap (like bowl games) yet this looks SO EASY I cannot trust it. This is unfortunately just a simple fade play.

Falcons were the correct play. Everyone knows that now. You cannot handicap for a miracle lol. I'm sure the books lost hundreds of millions.