let's sniff out a couple of W's & a parlay

Week 23 Results:
Man City -171 at West Ham
Burnley +200 vs. Leicester
Middlesbrough/West Brom Draw +202
Liverpool/Chelsea Draw +220
Swansea +225 vs. Southampton
Everton/Stoke Draw +237
Crystal Palace +237 at Bournemouth
Sunderland/Tottenham Draw +471
Watford +628 at Arsenal
Man Utd/Hull Draw +700

Season Trends:
Home: 108 wins of 230 (+13.35 units)
Away: 67 wins of 230 (-40.95 units)
Draw: 55 wins of 230 (-5.54 units)

Title Odds at 5Dimes and Current Points:
Chelsea -335 (56)
Tottenham +1100 (47)
Man City +1150 (46)
Arsenal +1800 (47)
Liverpool +1800 (46)
Man Utd +4000 (42)

This weekend’s marquee game is Chelsea hosting Arsenal on early Saturday morning. The betting public is a bit heavy on Arsenal

As for value plays, the first one this week will be the Watford/Burnley Draw at +225 odds. Currently 66% of moneyline tickets is on Watford +112 while just 18% of tickets is on the Draw +225. Despite the huge support for Watford at home, the line has barely moved since opening while there was initial line movement on the draw

The other value play will be a moneyline parlay on Crystal Palace -137 and Man City -435, which pays out +113. The reasoning behind both is the same, as public support is far lower than their expected win percentage. Crystal Palace’s implied probability to win is 58% vs. Sunderland, but only 34% of tickets are on Crystal Palace. The public likes Sunderland’s result from last week but Crystal Palace should take care of business at home, and same goes for Man City on Sunday.

Most Lopsided Around Market: 68% on Everton -140, 65% on Watford +112

Biggest Line Moves at Pinnacle: Hull/Liverpool Draw +383 to +359, West Ham +422 to +384, Sunderland +506 to +437

On February fourth, Hull City will host Liverpool at the KCOM Stadium. Both teams are coming off credible draws, but need to start winning games if they are to achieve their goal for the season.

Hull hung on for a 0-0 draw away to Manchester United thanks to an outstanding performance from goalkeeper Eldin Jakupović. A point at Old Trafford is always a fantastic result, but Hull do remain four points inside the relegation zone with only 17 points from 23 matches. If they are going to escape the drop, they’ll need to start winning games soon. Liverpool are hardly the easiest team to beat, but they have been in some poor form, without a win in the league since New Year’s Eve. It’ll still be a tough match for Hull, but this is about as good a time to play Liverpool as there has been all year.

As mentioned above, Liverpool have had a difficult time winning games recently. Their only win in the month of January was 1-0 win in an FA Cup replay against League Two side Plymouth Argyle. After being second and only six points off top at the turn of the year, Liverpool find themselves fourth and 10 points off the top spot. The Reds have no margin for error if they want to win the title and may start worrying for their place in the top four at the end of the season.
PREDICTION

Liverpool have been struggling, but they should win this one. Hull are still a talent deprived side and will likely struggle against a Liverpool team desperate for a win.

Prediction: 3-1 Liverpool

The early kick off this weekend will have huge ramifications for the title race, with some thinking that three points for Chelsea will put them in a position from which they can’t be caught. It hasn’t got to that point yet, but the rest of the top six will be hoping that Chelsea lose this against Arsenal. However, for the visitors, it may be a must not lose, rather than a must win. Although they were lucky that four of the other five sides in the top six dropped points during the week, Arsenal did lose to Watford and another loss this weekend could see them drop out of the top four.

Chelsea picked up a point at Anfield on Tuesday and they will be relatively happy with that, despite a late penalty miss. Liverpool had some good chances as well and a draw was probably a fair result on the day. This weekend will represent a good opportunity to get revenge on Arsenal after an embarrassing 3-0 defeat in the reverse fixture. It led to the change to 3-4-3 and it will be interesting to see how Arsenal cope with the new Chelsea. The Gunners ran rampant at the Emirates Stadium, but they are coming up against a much better side this time and Chelsea will be favourites heading into Saturday.

The Arsenal supporters were once again angry on Tuesday after falling to a defeat at home against out-of-form Watford. There has been talk of the title, but considering the strength of the top six this season, Arsenal would be better off focusing on consolidating their top four position. It was a weird result considering it came just days after their thrashing of Southampton. Inconsistency is a problem for Arsenal again this season and it must be frustrating for supporters that the same problems arise every season.

In the meeting between the two earlier this season, it ended 3-0 to Arsenal, which forced Antonio Conte to change to a 3-4-3 formation. All of the goals were scored in the first half and there were questions raised about the Chelsea manager, but they have since stormed to the top of the league. The Arsenal scorers that day were Alexis Sanchez, Theo Walcott and Mesut Ozil. Meanwhile, in the match at Stamford Bridge last season, Chelsea prevailed thanks to a goal from Kurt Zouma and a Calum Chambers (OG). Santi Cazorla was sent off on that occasion.
VERDICT

It is going to be a tight match and Arsenal have the players to cause Chelsea problems. However, the Blues have been the outstanding side in the league this season and it is difficult to see them losing this weekend, especially considering the match is at Stamford Bridge. They have become a lot better since they lost at the Emirates Stadium and I expect them to get the three points this weekend. It won’t be a clear victory, but Chelsea will strengthen their position at the top of the table.

need some help with German Bund here, i really like

FC Koln & Dortmund seems to be getting a nice look see

Bilboa/Barcelona O 3

Watford/Burnley +225
W Brom/Stoke City +220