mid week fun

Week 22 Results
Chelsea -550 vs. Hull
Arsenal -485 vs. Burnley
West Brom -146 vs. Sunderland
Southampton -120 vs. Leicester
Everton +158 at Crystal Palace
West Ham +221 at Middlesbrough
Man City/Tottenham Draw +259
Bournemouth/Watford Draw +266
Stoke/Man United Draw +335
Swansea +1200 at Liverpool

Season Trends
Home: 106 wins of 220 (+17.10 units)
Away: 64 wins of 220 (-50.21 units)
Draw: 50 wins of 220 (-23.84 units)

Title Odds at 5Dimes and Current Points
Chelsea -230 (55)
Tottenham +830 (46)
Arsenal +890 (47)
Liverpool +1250 (45)
Man City +1900 (43)
Man Utd +3800 (41)

The first play of the week will actually be on the biggest match– Liverpool +160 vs. Chelsea. This bet seems a bit risky at first since Chelsea are well atop the league while Liverpool have had a very tough week in the EPL and FA Cup. However, the public is very heavy on Chelsea +200 with nearly 70% of moneyline tickets. The initial line movement at Pinnacle, a sharp market-setting sportsbook especially for soccer, was on Liverpoool to bring the line down from +160 to +146. The line eventually crept back up to Liverpool +160 due to many public wagers on Chelsea.

This is one of the few matches this season where Chelsea aren’t the favorites, and I believe that Liverpool will get their season back on track at home.

The next value play is the Middlesbrough/West Brom Draw +199. This game should be tight and just 13% of moneyline tickets are taking the draw. Middlesbrough aren’t particularly strong at home but are favored against a superior team in West Brom. I’m forecasting a 1-1 final in this one.

Lastly will be a 3-team moneyline parlay on big favorites Arsenal -398/Tottenham -247/Man United -486 which pays out +112. In each of these matches, public bettors are actually taking the big underdogs on the other side. Each of these favorites has at least a 70% chance of victory, yet the public betting percentages on the favorites are around 50%. Public bettors are seeing the big underdog lines and taking them, so I think there’s actually value on the other side by parlaying the favorites at +112 odds.

Most Lopsided Around Market: 75% on Burnley (+195), 68% on Chelsea (+200), 64% on Bournemouth (+108)

Biggest Line Moves: Swansea/Southampton Draw +248 to +234, Sunderland +825 to +758

Burnley

On Tuesday Night, two of the best sides in the league Liverpool and Chelsea face each other at Anfield in what could be a pivotal game in the title race.

The wheels have come off for Liverpool in 2017 – the Reds have lost thrice on the bounce in three different competitions at Anfield following an year of invincibility and are at a crossroads this season. Having suffered a double elimination from the cup competitions, winning the league or finishing in the Champions League places has become the sole objective for the remainder of the season – and anything but a win against the league leaders will be a poor result at home where they need to make the most of their performances. With Jurgen Klopp under serious pressure for the first time in a long while to get maximum points, it will be a test of mental strength and a barometer of how far they have come under the effervescent German.

Chelsea, on the other hand, are the league’s most consistent side and deservedly at the top. The Blues are on a four game winning run after suffering their first defeat in three months to Tottenham Hotspur – which includes ensuring qualification to the fifth round of the FA Cup. They have conceded only one goal in those four games scoring a total of 13. Antonio Conte’s Chelsea have only lost thrice in the competition and one of those loses came against Tuesday’s opponents at Stamford Bridge. A win at Anfield will strengthen their bid for a second title in three years and serve as the catalyst for the next crunch fixture against second-placed Arsenal.
Prediction

The Reds are clearly struggling and this is a make or break game for Jurgen Klopp this campaign in terms of title aspirations. A loss would potentially see them in a tussle for fourth spot with the two Manchester clubs. Chelsea seem to have recovered well since their last defeat and are keeping the ball rolling with a robust defence. Blues to shade this one.

Liverpool 1-2 Chelsea

Arsenal will be getting ready to host Watford in Tuesday night’s Premier League game as the Gunners look to edge closer to Premier League leaders Chelsea.

Having won six of their last seven games, Arsenal are in brilliant form right now, a fact only made more apparent with their incredible game against Southampton. The Gunners scored five goals and conceded none. That’s right, they maintained a clean sheet and reaped the benefits of a Theo Walcott hat-trick and a Danny Welbeck brace.

Watford, on the other hand, have been struggling to find their footing this season. They have not earned a win in their last two games, drawing both of them. They drew their previous game 2-2 against Bournemouth and will have to face a mighty challenge in the form of Arsenal at the Emirates stadium.
PREDICTION

As a result, an Arsenal victory seems most likely. The match will probably end in a 2-1 victory for Arsenal

some nice action on Arsenal/Watford over

You know I like to hear that!! Will be looking very closely at that one.

Big juice increase on that Arsenal game in the last hour as well

West Ham/Man City O 3
Man U/Hull O 3

Lets get that first one!!