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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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For the second time in three years Diego Simeone’s team of hungry underdogs is facing Real Madrid in an attempt to get their name on the Champions League trophy for the very first time. Mark Taylor looks at past statistics to determine where there is more betting value: in the outright or 90 minute markets?
The San Siro in Milan stages a reprise of the 2013/14 UEFA Champions League final on May 28th, when cross city rivals Real and Atletico Madrid meet in the final prestigious match of the European club season.
Although Real were eventually decisive 4-1 winners in the 2013/14 final, the match was finely poised during the initial 90 minutes and Real required an injury time equaliser to take the match into extra time.
Champion League statistics
Since the 2013/14 final the two teams have met in a variety of domestic and European competitions, where Atletico have dominated, winning half of their ten subsequent meetings and losing just once.
They’ve been generally low scoring affairs, with seven of the ten meetings having fewer than 2.5 total goals.
More recently Real has been the more impressive of the two sides in negotiating the group and knockout phases of this season’s Champions League tournament.
They lost just once to Wolfsburg in the first leg of the quarter finals, winning nine and drawing two during their progress to the final and played in a generally competitive Group A that contained PSG and subsequent Europa League semi-finalists, Shakhtar Donetsk.
In contrast, Atletico has made good use of the forgiving nature of both the group and two legged knockout phase of the Champions league. A six match group phase allowed them to proceed as a seeded side to the knockout stage, despite a loss and draw to Benfica and Astana, respectively.
Two further losses in the knockout round against Barcelona and Bayern Munich, combined with a goalless, two legged meeting won on penalties against PSV sees Atletico as perhaps a below par finalist.
However, their record of six wins, three draws and three loses may simply reflect Diego Simeone’s pragmatic approach to qualification and indeed nearly half of the finalists over the previous decade have lost two or more matches during their trip to the final game.
If we use these rate matchups in a Poisson, Atletico emerge narrow favourites over 90 minutes, winning 36% of the time compared to 33% for Real and 31% the draw.
After analysing the previous 10 matches between Real and Atletico in a Poisson, Atletico emerges narrow favourites over 90 minutes, winning 36% of the time, compared to 33% for Real and 31% for the draw.
We can also utilise the Champions League matches played this season by the two finalists.
The later stages of the European club competitions, particularly the premier competition has been largely dominated by teams from the big five leagues of England, Spain, Germany, Italy and France and if we include domestic league games we can build up a reasonably sized sample of matches between such elite teams over the current season.
Real has played 19 such games and Atletico 16 against the likes of AS Roma, PSG, Manchester City and Bayern Munich, along with their domestic La Liga games.
Although these fixtures do not involve each team playing all possible opponents which may lead to strength of schedule issues, there will be sufficient collateral form lines to account for this.
Both Real and Atletico has a positive goal difference in these matches against the best club teams in Europe and once the quality of opposition is accounted for it is Atletico who again emerge as marginally the superior team.
They have played Barcelona four times, twice domestically and twice in the knockout phase of the Champions League and also Bayern Munich twice. Arguably the two best current European club teams.
Odds slightly favour Real, both in the outright market (1.729*) and 90 minutes market (2.42*). But for those siding with Atletico to win the Champions League (2.23*) or over 90 minutes (3.34*), there is plenty of recent indicators that point to Diego Simeone and his team gaining compensation for their near miss in 2013/14.
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05-28-16 11:12 AM |
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KKoss51
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Dec 2015
Posts: 1320
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English Championship
Hull City
Champions League
Real Madrid
Follow or fade.....fade may not be a bad idea of late
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05-28-16 04:37 PM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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In soccer, there are many types of competitions with varying rules so it’s always good to be informed prior to placing a bet. In most competitions, draws may be the final result of the game, so there are 3 different outcomes to bet on between Team A and Team B:
Team A wins
Team B wins
Team A and Team B draw
Soccer bets are based on results after 90 minutes of play or, ‘Regular Time’, which includes any time added by the referee in respect of injuries and other stoppages. Any Overtime, Golden Goals or Penalty Shoot-Outs do not count towards these betting since they are not considered ‘Regular Time’. For example, in the elimination stages of the World Cup, a winner is required in the tournament in order to progress to the next stage, but all bets are settled on 90 minutes of play (Regular Time). Thus, a draw is a possible outcome to bet on even in a game where one team must be eliminated. An example of what a 3-way moneyline would look like is:
France -129
Switzerland +325
Draw +250
Betting the 2-way Moneyline without the Draw:
Another way of betting soccer is to take the 2-way moneyline, also known as “Draw, No Bet” This is betting on the outcome of the game without the Draw. The two possible wagers are:
Team A wins
Team B wins
This form of betting eliminates the option of the Draw, and will likely have inflated odds on the favorite and deflated odds on the underdog to win the match since a draw results in no bet. For example, in a World Cup match between France and Switzerland, odds on the 2-way moneyline would like look:
France -310
Switzerland +272
As you can see, there is no option to bet on the draw, and if the game ends in a draw, the bet is refunded or “No-Actioned”, and is as if the bet was never placed.
Betting Goal Lines:
Similar to betting the 2-way moneyline (without the draw), the Goal Line is a way for bettors to win a bet on multiple outcomes of the game. Goal Lines are similar to Puck Lines in hockey and Point Spreads in football or basketball. A Goal Line is typically 0.5 goals but for games with big favorites, the Goal Line may be 1,1.5, 2, 2.5, 3 and so on. A World Cup match between Argentina and Iran looks like this:
Argentina -2.5 goals (+110)
Iran +2.5 goals (-120)
If you bet Argentina -2.5 goals, then to win the bet they must win by 3 goals or more. On the other side, betting Iran +2.5 goals means to win the bet, Iran can win, draw, or lose by 1 or 2 goals.
Betting Totals:
Totals in soccer work differently than other sports and can be shown in multiples of .25 goals. Since scoring is minimal in soccer, bookmakers will often times set a Total of 2.25 or 2.75. For example, if you bet on the Over 2.25 goals, half your bet is placed on “Over 2” and the other half of the bet is placed on “Over 2.5”. If the game settles on 2, you lose half your bet (Over 2.5) and refunded the other half (Over 2). If the game settles on 3, you win both bets (Over 2 and Over 2.5).
Another example is if you bet on the Under 2.75 goals. In this example, half your bet is placed on the Under 2.5 goals and the other half is bet on the Under 3 goals. If the game lands on 3, you’d lose half your bet (Under 2.5) and refunded the other half (Under 3).
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05-28-16 06:38 PM |
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KKoss51
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Dec 2015
Posts: 1320
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Finally broke up my poor streak with Hull City....but even a blind squirrel gets a nut once in a while....
Going Real Madrid in CL.....see if i cant keep it going
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05-28-16 08:20 PM |
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KKoss51
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Dec 2015
Posts: 1320
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Like that play Houston, good luck
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05-28-16 08:58 PM |
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