Heat at Spurs: What Bettors Need to Know
By Covers.com

Miami Heat at San Antonio Spurs (-1.5, 198.5)

The top two teams in the NBA meet up Sunday when the Miami Heat visit the San Antonio Spurs. The contest is huge in terms of the battle for home-court advantage throughout the playoffs. Miami currently has a two-game edge over San Antonio and would hold a commanding lead if it completes a sweep of the season series. The Heat have won 28 of their past 29 games while San Antonio has won six of its last seven.

The contest could be a prelude to June’s NBA Finals as both squads are the class of their respective conferences. San Antonio holds a 2 1/2-game edge over the Oklahoma City Thunder in the Western Conference and has a 32-4 home mark. Miami recently had a 27-game winning streak halted and has won 14 of its last 15 road games. The Heat bounced back from a loss to the Chicago Bulls by downing the New Orleans Hornets on Friday. The Spurs downed the Clippers on Friday behind Tim Duncan’s decisive three-point play with 2.2 seconds remaining. Miami won the first meeting 105-100 on Nov. 29 when Spurs coach Gregg Popovich sent Duncan, and guards Tony Parker, Manu Ginobili and Danny Green back to San Antonio for rest.

ABOUT THE HEAT (57-15): Forward LeBron James put his outside shooting on display in the victory over New Orleans, knocking down seven 3-pointers – one shy of his career high. James made six consecutive 3-pointers in the first half and finished 7-of-10 from behind the arc while scoring 36 points. “I hadn’t done that probably since high school or the early years with Cleveland,” James said afterward. “I felt good. Just tried to keep the Heat wave going.” Miami shot a season-high 60.9 percent in the contest and was 14-of-27 from 3-point range.

ABOUT THE SPURS (55-17): Duncan scored a season-best 34 points against the Clippers and continues to play like someone much younger. The 36-year-old Duncan also grabbed 11 rebounds against the Clippers for his 31st double-double of the season and is averaging 17.6 points and 10 rebounds. “He’s done the work to put himself in the position to have games like this and to have the season that’s he had,” Popovich said afterward. “You couldn’t be more proud of the guy on what he did out there.” Point guard Tony Parker had 24 points against the Clippers and is averaging 21.8 points in four games since returning from an ankle injury.

TRENDS:

* Spurs are 1-5 ATS in their last six home games.
* Over is 8-1 in Heat’s last nine vs. Western Conference foes.
* Heat are 4-0 ATS in their last four Sunday games.
* Spurs are 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall.

BUZZER BEATERS

1. The Heat is 2-22 when playing in San Antonio.

2. Ginobili injured his hamstring against the Clippers and will miss the Miami contest.

3. Miami PG Mario Chalmers (ankle) sat out the New Orleans game and is questionable to play against the Spurs.

Hot Teams
-- Bulls won three of last four games, covered six of last seven.
-- Miami won 28 of its last 29 games (2-0 as U).
-- Spurs won six of their last seven games (1-5 last six HF).
-- Knicks won last seven games, covered seven of last eight.

Cold Teams
-- Raptors lost five of last six games (1-5 last six AU).
-- Wizards are 1-3 in their last four games (4-7 last 11 F).
-- Cavaliers lost their last seven games (5-2 last seven A).
-- Hornets lost nine of their last 13 games (5-3 last eight HF).
-- Pistons lost 12 of their last 13 games (3-1 last four AU).
-- Celtics lost five of their last six road games (4-6 last ten AU).

Totals
-- Five of last six Toronto games went over the total.
-- Seven of last nine Cleveland games stayed under total.
-- Last four Detroit games stayed under the total.
-- Last three Miami games went over the total.
-- Five of last six New York games went over the total.

Back-to-backs
-- Chicago covered last five times it played night before.

Armadillosports.com

TORONTO (27 - 45) at WASHINGTON (26 - 46) - 3/31/2013, 6:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
TORONTO is 7-3 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
WASHINGTON is 5-5 straight up against TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
6 of 10 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CLEVELAND (22 - 49) at NEW ORLEANS (25 - 48) - 3/31/2013, 6:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ORLEANS is 2-2 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 3-1 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DETROIT (24 - 49) at CHICAGO (39 - 32) - 3/31/2013, 7:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 6-4 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO is 10-0 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
6 of 10 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MIAMI (57 - 15) at SAN ANTONIO (55 - 17) - 3/31/2013, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN ANTONIO is 87-60 ATS (+21.0 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 72-49 ATS (+18.1 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 46-26 ATS (+17.4 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 43-23 ATS (+17.7 Units) second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 150-114 ATS (+24.6 Units) in March games since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) against Southeast division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) in non-conference games this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 46-31 ATS (+11.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 136-101 ATS (+24.9 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season since 1996.
MIAMI is 20-8 ATS (+11.2 Units) after a non-conference game this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN ANTONIO is 2-2 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 3-1 straight up against SAN ANTONIO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BOSTON (38 - 34) at NEW YORK (45 - 26) - 3/31/2013, 7:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BOSTON is 27-44 ATS (-21.4 Units) after a win by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons.
NEW YORK is 44-29 ATS (+12.1 Units) second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
NEW YORK is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in home games in March games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW YORK is 8-7 against the spread versus BOSTON over the last 3 seasons
BOSTON is 11-4 straight up against NEW YORK over the last 3 seasons
8 of 15 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

6:00 PM
CLEVELAND vs. NEW ORLEANS
Cleveland is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cleveland's last 5 games
New Orleans is 6-14 SU in its last 20 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New Orleans's last 7 games when playing at home against Cleveland

6:00 PM
TORONTO vs. WASHINGTON
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Toronto's last 6 games when playing Washington
Toronto is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games when playing at home against Toronto
Washington is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Toronto

7:00 PM
MIAMI vs. SAN ANTONIO
Miami is 14-1 SU in its last 15 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Miami's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of San Antonio's last 11 games when playing at home against Miami
San Antonio is 9-3-1 ATS in its last 13 games when playing at home against Miami

7:00 PM
DETROIT vs. CHICAGO
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Detroit's last 5 games when playing on the road against Chicago
Detroit is 1-9-1 ATS in its last 11 games when playing on the road against Chicago
Chicago is 17-4-1 ATS in its last 22 games when playing Detroit
Chicago is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Detroit

7:30 PM
BOSTON vs. NEW YORK
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Boston's last 5 games when playing on the road against New York
Boston is 13-4 SU in its last 17 games when playing on the road against New York
New York is 6-19 SU in its last 25 games when playing Boston
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New York's last 5 games at home




Elite Eight Betting Preview: Duke vs. Louisville
Atssportsline.com

Who will be the next two teams to earn a trip to Atlanta and make the Final Four? The college basketball world turns its attention to Arlington, Tx. and Indianapolis, Ind. Did you shred your March Madness bracket? If you bet on the games, here's a look at Midwest Regional final where Duke of the ACC takes on Louisville of the Big East. Check below for a preview of the Midwest Regional with key betting trends and angles along with March Madness statistics.

#1 Louisville Cardinals (30-5 SU, 19-16 ATS) vs. #2 Duke Blue Devils (30-5 SU, 19-16 ATS)


Betting Odds:

Louisville is a 3.5-point betting odds favorite. The total is 137 after opening at 134.

Key Betting Trends


Duke is:
4-1 ATS last 5 following a SU win.
8-2 ATS last 10 neutral site games.
17-8-1 ATS last 26 Sunday games.
5-14-1 ATS last 20 vs. Big East
7-0 last 7 matchups on the over bet vs. Big East.

Louisville is:
9-1 ATS last 10 overall.
19-7 ATS last 26 Sunday games.
19-7 ATS last 26 neutral site games.
7-1 ATS last 8 NCAA Tournament games.
6-0 last 6 matchups on the over bet in non-conference play.

Who has the edge?

Last game: (11/24/12) Duke (+1) over Louisville, 76-71 (from Nassau, Bahamas)

Duke won the first matchup from Nassau as center Mason Plumlee dominated the paint with 16 points and seven rebounds. Louisville outrebonded Duke 38-33 but turned the ball over 15 times and had just six assists. Louisville was also playing without center Gorgui Deng, who was injured.

This has the look of an NCAA Championship game, not an Elite Eight contest. Rick Pitino isn't quite as accomplished as Mike Krzyzewski but he's close. The last time these two great coaches faced each other was back in 1992, when Duke beat Kentucky on Christian Laettner's historic shot at the buzzer to reach the Final Four. Duke may be underseeded for the rare time as they have gotten better with each round. They got to the Elite Eight by defeating Michigan State, 71-61, giving 2 on Friday night. They finally put everything together with great defense and excellent shooting. They turned the ball over just seven times and shot 24-of-26 (92.3 percent) from the foul line. Duke held the Spartans to just 40 percent shooting including freshman phenom Gary Harris (2-of-11) for just six points.

The key for Duke is 6-foot-2 shooting guard Seth Curry, who scored 29 points against Michigan State. When Curry is on, the Blue Devils are tough to stop and he's averaging 17.6 points per game this season. He had 17 against Creighton and 26 against Albany. He is also 10-of-20 from thee-point range in the tournament. Mason Plumlee (6-10, 235) had 14 points but won't have the size advantage against Gorgui Deng (6-11, 245).

Louisville's concern will be defending Curry and freshman Rasheed Sulaimon (6-4, 185). Pitino's guards are small as Russ Smith (6-1, 165) and Peyton Siva (6-0, 185) are more quick than long. Sophomore Kevin Ware (6-2, 175) comes in to provide energy. Offensively, they are much quicker than the Duke guards and that provides a dilemma for Coach K.

Louisville has won 13 straight games including a 77-69 win over Oregon on Friday, giving 10.5. They controlled the game the entire way, shooting 54 percent from the field but couldn't pull away because they shot just 4-of-13 (31 percent) from beyond the arc. Smith was outstanding with 31 points on 9-of-16 shooting from the field, but Siva played just 19 minutes and scored only four points due to foul trouble. Dieng controlled the paint with 19 points, nine rebounds and four blocks. He provides height since Wane Blackshear (6-5, 230) and Chase Behanan (6-6, 250) are valuable players who are physical but not tall.

Bottom line

Louisville does not want to grind this out. Even though they allow just 57.9 points per game, and teams to shoot 39.2 percent from the field and 31.6 percent from beyond the arc, they want to run. Duke can run, as they average 77.6 points per game and shot 47.5 percent from the field and 40.3 percent from beyond the arc. They get on runs because they get stops on defense and on offense they make three's especially Curry and Sulaimon. Louisville has Smith but they need more balance and they also need to force turnovers.

Elite Eight Betting Preview: Michigan vs. Florida
Atssportsline.com

Who will be the next two teams to earn a trip to Atlanta and make the Final Four? The college basketball world turns its attention to Arlington, Tx. and Indianapolis, Ind. Don't worry about your March Madness bracket, since we know most are in pieces. If you bet on the games, here's a look at South Regional final where Michigan of the Big Ten takes on Florida of the SEC. Check below for a preview of the South Regional with key betting trends and angles along with March Madness statistics.

#4 Michigan Wolverines (29-7 SU, 17-16-1 ATS) vs. #3 Florida Gators (29-7 SU, 18-15 ATS)


Betting Odds

Florida is a 2.5-point betting odds favorite. The total is 131 after opening at 132.

Key Betting Trends


Michigan is:
7-1 ATS last 8 neutral site games.
5-1 ATS last 6 NCAA Tournament games.
1-4-1 ATS last 6 vs. Southeastern Conference teams.
11-4-1 last 16 matchups on the over bet in neutral site games.

Florida is:
4-1 ATS last 5 Sunday games.
18-6 ATS last 24 NCAA Tournament games.
1-4 ATS last 5 following a SU win.
21-9 last 30 matchups on the over bet in non-conference games.

Who has the edge?

Michigan had the toughest road to the Elite Eight. They crushed a tough VCU team by 25 to make the Sweet 16, then came back from 14 down with less than 7 minutes left to beat Kansas in overtime, 87-85. Michigan starts three freshmen, a sophomore and a junior, so they aren't the most experienced team in the tournament. They aren't the hottest team either, winning a respectable four of the last six games. But what they do have is arguably the best player in the tournament in sophomore Trey Burke. The point guard was 0-for-4 in the first half and didn't make his first basket until 18:48 left in regulation. But he finished with 23 points including a long three-pointer to send the game into overtime.

The Wolverines will present some challenges to Florida, but they can't afford to get behind double-digits in the second half. The key is how Florida defends freshman center Mitch McGary (6-10, 250), who has 21+ points and 14+ rebounds in two straight games. The only other player to do that in the last 15 years in the NCAA Tournament in Blake Griffin. McGary was almost an afterthought coming into this tournament and is only averaging 7.3 points and 6.1 rebounds but he was a five star recruit who is starting to figure it out.

Florida will try and counter McGary with Patric Young (6-9, 249), who averages 10.2 points and 6.3 rebounds. and Will Yeguete (6-7, 240). They can also use forward Erik Murphy (6-10, 238) if necessary against the more physical McGary. Florida has won five of the last six and defeated Northwestern State (79-47), Minnesota (78-64) and Florida Gulf Coast (62-50) to reach the Elite Eight. The only game they didn't cover was against FGCU on Friday night as they were laying 13. The also started the game slow, getting behind 24-14 early in the first half, before going on a 16-0 run to go up 30-26 and they never trailed after that. Florida outstanding defense stepped up and forced 20 turnovers including nine for starting point guard Brett Comer.

Guard Mike Rosario led the Gators with 15 points in a solid but unspectacular offensive effort. Florida shot just 39 percent from the floor and 4-of-16 (27 percent) from beyond the arc. Against the team that rarely turns the ball over, Florida will need better games from Murphy (four points) and guard Scottie Wilbekin (3-of-11) who averages 9.3 points and shots 46 percent from the floor and 36 percent from beyond the arc.

Bottom line

This is a battle of guards with Rosario going up against Burke. Florida is the better defensive team, allowing teams to shoot just 38 percent from the floor and 30.3 percent from beyond the arc. They also average 71.8 points per game and allow teams to average just 53.7 points. But they don't want to run with Michigan, who averages 74.7 points per game and shoots 37.4 percent from beyond the arc and 48.3 percent from the field. Nik Stauskas (11.3 points, 43 percent 3-point) is a 6-foot-6 wing who can really get hot while Glen Robinson III (6-6, 210) is extremely athletic and a strong rebounder with 11.1 points and 5.6 caroms per game. They'll have to go the boards against a very solid Florida team.

Sunday's Elite Eight
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com

The Final Four takes place next Saturday at the Georgia Dome in Atlanta, as two more spots need to be filled out on the dance card. Four big-time programs look to advance to the Peach State, as Florida takes on Michigan, while Duke battles Louisville. We'll begin in the Lone Star State with two schools that have gotten together for bowl games, but not tournament showdowns.

South Regional


(3) Florida vs. (4) Michigan

Both the Gators and Wolverines had to rally from double-digit deficits on Friday night to advance to the Elite Eight, but both squads put together their comebacks in different ways. Florida erased an early 15-4 deficit to upstart Florida Gulf Coast en route to a 62-50 victory, but the Gators didn't cash as 14-point favorites. Meanwhile, Michigan pulled off a bit more dramatic rally to reach the round of eight.

Kansas sat two minutes away from the regional final, but the Jayhawks squandered a 10-point lead late in regulation as Trey Burke's three-pointer in the final seconds forced overtime. The Wolverines responded in the extra session by capping off a 33-17 run in a 12-minute span to upend the Jayhawks, 87-85 to cash as 1½-point underdogs. Burke put the Wolverines on his back by scoring 13 points in a 5 ½-minute stretch, giving Michigan its first Elite Eight appearance since 1994.

The Gators covered in their first two tournament games in victories over Northwestern State and Minnesota, while Billy Donovan's team failed to knock down some key free throws in the final seconds in the non-cover against Florida Gulf Coast. Florida fell to 6-11 ATS the last 17 games, but eight of those ATS defeats came as 'chalk' of 10 points or more. As a favorite of single-digits, the Gators own a mediocre 3-4 ATS record, including outright losses away from Gainesville against Kentucky, Missouri, and Arizona.

Michigan closed the regular season with a 1-9 ATS record in the final 10 games, but John Beilein's club has cashed four of five postseason contests (including the Big 10 tournament). The Wolverines are just 2-2 ATS this season when receiving points, as the Maize and Blue did lose outright at Indiana and Ohio State as underdogs. Michigan has trended towards the 'over' in the 'dog role, cashing three times in four opportunities.

Florida is listed at 2½-point favorites, while the total is set at 131.

Midwest Regional


(1) Louisville vs. (2) Duke

The only top-seed left in the tournament is Louisville, who plays with revenge after losing to Duke in the Bahamas back in November. The Cardinals won their 13th straight game following Friday's 77-69 Sweet 16 triumph over Oregon, but Louisville couldn't close for backers as 11-point favorites. Rick Pitino's squad led by 14 points at the half, as the Ducks grabbed a backdoor cover with a layup in the final 30 seconds.

Seth Curry lifted Duke's offense to a Sweet 16 triumph over Michigan State on Friday, 71-61 as two-point favorites. Curry scored a game-high 29 points, including six three-pointers, while the Blue Devils knocked down 24-of-26 free throws to ice the victory. The game barely finished 'under' the total of 132 ½, in spite of Duke hitting all eight free throws in the final two minutes.

The Blue Devils held off the Cardinals as 1-point underdogs at the Battle 4 Atlantis during Thanksgiving weekend, 76-71. Duke shot just 5-of-20 from three-point range, including a 2-of-9 effort from Curry. Louisville rallied from an eight-point deficit to make things interesting, but Quinn Cook scored the final eight points for Duke to hand the Cardinals their first loss of the season.

Since the start of February, Mike Kryzyewski's team has covered consecutive games four times. However, the Blue Devils were unable to cash in the third opportunity, including outright losses to Virginia and Maryland. Duke enters this situation off back-to-back ATS wins over Creighton and Michigan State.

During this 13-game hot streak, the Cardinals have drilled the 'over' in eight consecutive contests, while posting a 9-1 ATS record in the last 10 victories. This is the third time the Cardinals are playing with revenge this season, as the Big East champions won and covered against Syracuse and Notre Dame after losing to those teams earlier in the campaign.

Louisville is listed as 3½-point favorites, while the total is set at 137.


Duke vs. Louisville: What Bettors Need to Know
By Covers.com

Duke Blue Devils vs. Louisville Cardinals (-3.5, 137)

Louisville is the final No. 1 seed remaining in the NCAA Tournament and looked unbeatable behind Russ Smith in the first three games. Making the Final Four is never easy, however, and the Cardinals will need to get through No. 2 seed Duke in the Midwest Regional Final on Sunday. The Blue Devils have not had much trouble in their trip to the Elite Eight, either, and like Louisville have plenty of experience going deep in the Tournament.

The Cardinals have won 13 straight games going back to the regular season and have lived up to the hype as the No. 1 overall seed thanks in part to a total of 81 points in three NCAA Tournament games by Russ Smith. Duke can match Smith and Louisville shot for shot with Seth Curry, who went for 29 points in the Sweet Sixteen win over Michigan State and is 10-for-20 from 3-point range in the Tournament. After being bounced by a No. 15 seed last season, the Blue Devils are trying to make their first Final Four appearance since winning the National Championship in 2010.

ABOUT DUKE (30-5): Blue Devils coach Mike Krzyzewski has not faced Louisville coach Rick Pitino in the NCAA Tournament since Christian Laettner’s historic shot against Kentucky in the 1992 Elite Eight ended one of the greatest college basketball games ever. Krzyzewski’s 2012-13 team is not quite the same, but it does have a plethora of scoring options. Curry was just the latest to take over for Duke after sharing the scoring load with Mason Plumlee in the opening game of the Tournament and letting freshman Rasheed Sulaimon take over in the third-round victory over Creighton. Sulaimon attacking the paint helped open things up for Curry to hit six 3-pointers in the 71-61 victory over the Spartans on Friday. All five starters scored at least 14 points the last time the Blue Devils faced the Cardinals, with Plumlee’s 16 points leading the way in a 76-71 win in the Battle 4 Atlantis tournament on Nov. 24.

ABOUT LOUISVILLE (32-5): The Cardinals were without center Gorgui Dieng in the November meeting with Duke, but Peyton Siva collected 19 points and six steals and Smith scored 17 to keep things close. Dieng is shooting 87.5 percent in the Tournament and should make things more difficult for Plumlee this time around. Louisville has won its 13 straight games by an average of 17.3 points but was sluggish in the Sweet Sixteen win over Oregon due to a cold virus making its way through the squad. Smith had the worst of it on Friday but still managed 31 points in the 77-69 win. Siva spent most of the game in foul trouble but backup point guard Kevin Ware went 5-for-7 off the bench in his place. The Cardinals are largely the same team that reached the Final Four last season, though Smith has taken on a greater role.

TRENDS:

* Cardinals are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
* Under is 4-0 in Blue Devils’ last four NCAA Tournament games.
* Over is 7-0 in Cardinals’ last seven overall.

TIP-INS

1. The schools have not met in the NCAA Tournament since Louisville defeated Duke in the 1986 National Championship game.

2. Krzyzewski is attempting to reach his 12th Final Four, which would tie legendary UCLA coach John Wooden for the record.

3. Smith’s 81 points are the most ever for a Cardinals player in the first three games of the NCAA Tournament.

Michigan vs. Florida: What Bettors Need to Know
By Covers.com

Michigan Wolverines vs. Florida Gators (-2.5, 131)

Michigan is part of the Elite Eight for the first time in 19 years while Florida is part of the festivities for the third straight season when the two squads meet in Sunday’s South Regional final at Arlington, Texas. The third-seeded Gators are attempting to reach the Final Four for the first time since 2007, when they won the second of back-to-back national championships. The fourth-seeded Wolverines are still alive due to an epic comeback to beat Kansas in overtime.

Michigan trailed by 10 points with less than three minutes left in regulation against the Jayhawks before Big Ten Player of the Year Trey Burke caught fire, scoring eight points in the final 75 seconds and forcing overtime with a 28-foot 3-pointer. “We love coaching him because he’s got courage,” Wolverines coach John Beilein said afterward. Florida ousted tournament favorite Florida Gulf Coast with strong defensive play that included 20 turnovers. The next task is ending the streak of two straight losses in regional title games. “It’s so hard just a win a tournament game, never mind advance,” Gators coach Billy Donovan said.

ABOUT FLORIDA (29-7): The Gators lack superstars and the rotation is only eight players deep but anyone can emerge as the key player during any given contest. Senior guard Mike Rosario had 15 points against Florida Gulf Coast and is 10-of-19 from 3-point range during the tournament, while junior forward Casey Prather excelled off the bench with 11 points against the Eagles. “We wanted to come out and play with energy and help our team win,” Prather said of Florida’s strong bench contributions. “I think we did a great job of doing it. We made up our mind that we didn’t want to leave.” Rosario and senior forward Erik Murphy each averages 12.6 points. Senior guard Kenny Boynton chips in 12 points per game, junior center Patric Young averages 10.2 points and 6.3 rebounds and junior guard Scottie Wilbekin contributes 9.3 points and 4.9 assists.

ABOUT MICHIGAN (29-7): Freshman forward Mitch McGary has emerged as a star in the NCAA Tournament by averaging 19.7 points and 12.3 rebounds. McGary scored a season-high 25 points and matched a season best with 14 rebounds against the Jayhawks in just his fifth career start. “Coach has done a tremendous job of just allowing me for this opportunity to just get this many minutes, and be in the starting lineup,” McGary said afterward. “I’m honored to have it. He says if you play hard in practice, you’re going to earn these minutes.” McGary’s season averages are 7.3 points and a team-best 6.1 rebounds. Burke, a sophomore point guard, leads the Wolverines in scoring (18.9) and assists (6.9) and finished with 23 points and 10 assists against Kansas. Junior guard Tim Hardaway Jr. averages 14.8 points.

TRENDS:

* Wolverines are 5-1 ATS in their last six NCAA Tournament games.
* Under is 10-2 in Gators’ last 12 overall.
* Gators are 1-4 ATS in their last five games following a win.
* Wolverines are 7-1 ATS in their last eight neutral site games.

TIP-INS

1. Donovan has a 31-10 record in NCAA Tournament play and his .756 winning percentage is third among active coaches, trailing only Duke’s Mike Krzyzewski (.771) and Southern Methodist’s Larry Brown (.760).

2. The Wolverines haven’t won 30 games since compiling a 31-5 mark in 1992-93.

3. The winner faces either Syracuse or Marquette in the Final Four.




DUKE (30 - 5) vs. LOUISVILLE (32 - 5) - 3/31/2013, 2:10 PM

Top Trends for this game.
DUKE is 46-70 ATS (-31.0 Units) in March games since 1997.
LOUISVILLE is 44-28 ATS (+13.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
LOUISVILLE is 44-28 ATS (+13.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
LOUISVILLE is 50-34 ATS (+12.6 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
LOUISVILLE is 15-3 ATS (+11.7 Units) in all neutral court games over the last 2 seasons.
LOUISVILLE is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) as a neutral court favorite of 3.5 to 6 points over the last 3 seasons.
LOUISVILLE is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in March games this season.
LOUISVILLE is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) when playing with one or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
LOUISVILLE is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in road games after a non-conference game over the last 3 seasons.
LOUISVILLE is 15-3 ATS (+11.7 Units) when playing on a neutral court over the last 2 seasons.
LOUISVILLE is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in road games in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
LOUISVILLE is 18-3 ATS (+14.7 Units) in road games revenging a road loss vs opponent since 1997.
LOUISVILLE is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) in all tournament games over the last 2 seasons.
LOUISVILLE is 13-6 ATS (+6.4 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
LOUISVILLE is 24-14 ATS (+8.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 2 seasons.
DUKE is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in all neutral court games this season.
DUKE is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in road games after a non-conference game this season.
DUKE is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) when playing on a neutral court this season.
DUKE is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games in non-conference games this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
DUKE is 1-0 against the spread versus LOUISVILLE over the last 3 seasons
DUKE is 1-0 straight up against LOUISVILLE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


MICHIGAN (29 - 7) vs. FLORIDA (29 - 7) - 3/31/2013, 4:55 PM

Top Trends for this game.
MICHIGAN is 3-10 ATS (-8.0 Units) versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game after 15+ games this season.
FLORIDA is 100-71 ATS (+21.9 Units) in non-conference games since 1997.
FLORIDA is 62-36 ATS (+22.4 Units) in all tournament games since 1997.
MICHIGAN is 57-38 ATS (+15.2 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
MICHIGAN is 57-38 ATS (+15.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
MICHIGAN is 23-12 ATS (+9.8 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
MICHIGAN is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in all neutral court games this season.
MICHIGAN is 11-4 ATS (+6.6 Units) after a non-conference game this season.
MICHIGAN is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) when playing on a neutral court this season.
MICHIGAN is 11-4 ATS (+6.6 Units) in non-conference games this season.
MICHIGAN is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in all tournament games this season.
MICHIGAN is 48-30 ATS (+15.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.


Duke vs. Louisville
Duke: 0-8 ATS off 3+ games allowing 55 points or less
Louisville: 15-3 ATS playing on a neutral court

Michigan vs. Florida
Michigan: 7-1 ATS playing on a neutral court
Florida: 1-7 ATS off ATS wins in 2 of their last 3 games




College Knowledge

Florida still hasn't won a game by less than 10 points this year, so if this is a tense struggle, their 0-6 record in single digit games cannot be a help. Gators are 2-0 vs Big Dozen teams, beating Wisconsin/Minnesota by 18, 14 points. Michigan was all but dead Friday, down 14 with 6:51 to play, 10 with 2:32 left, but pulled game out; four starters played 39+ minutes Friday-- a fifth played 35. Donovan is 3-2 in regional finals, but lost last two years, to Butler/Louisville; Gators are #28 in country in experience, Wolverines #342, big edge there. Florida hasn't been taxed yet, beating seeds #14-11-15 to get here. Michigan is #1 team in country protecting the ball; Beilein lost his only regional final to Louisville in OT in 2005. Underdogs are 5-1 vs spread in last six regional finals that didn't involve a #1 or #2 seed.

Since '85, Coach K is 11-1 in regional finals, 3-0 when he is a #2 seed vs a #1 (he also lost as a #1 vs a #2). Louisville-Duke last met in NCAAs in '86, when Cardinals won 72-69 in national title game; Duke (even) beat Louisville 76-71 on a neutral court Nov 24, when both teams had played previous two days, and game that Dieng sat out. Duke outscored Cards 23-9 on foul line, but made just 5-25 on arc. Louisville is 13-0 since loss in 5-OT's to Notre Dame, winning last eight games by 8+ points. Take a look at regional finals involving #1 vs #2 seeds: Since 2003, #2-seeds are 9-3 vs #1-seeds in regional finals, despite being underdog in nine of the 12 games. Duke is #4 in country at protecting ball, but their subs took only one shot Friday; they used four starters 36+ minutes.

Armadillosports.com

Jack Jones
20* Michigan +3
15* San Antonio -1

Chris Jordan
1000* Louisville -3.5

Tony Stoffo
Louisville -3.5

Marc Lawrence
Michigan

Paul Leiner
100* Louisville -3.5
50* Heat/Spurs Over 198

Craig Davis

Free play for Sunday is the Heat.

Is it just me, or does Miami always seem to play better when the competition is better?

There are a ton of reasons to go against the Heat in this one... mainly the fact that San Antonio is nearly unbeatable at home. But then again, this could be an NBA Finals preview and they need to make sure they figure out how to get a win in a tough environment like this.

Instead, I'm going to tell you why the Heat will cover.

First off, they're the best team in the NBA. Sure, their franchise record winning streak is over, but it's probably a good thing. The pressure of a stupid record is gone and now it's time to focus on the playoffs.

And what better game could you ask for than a matchup with the San Antonio Spurs?? Especially without Manu Ginobili...

Miami has won 28 of its last 29 games overall, getting back on the winning track at New Orleans on Friday. And while Miami traditionally hasn't had a lot of success in San Antonio over the years, this year's team is different.

Dwyane Wade is 1-4 at San Antonio. Chris Bosh is 1-7. LeBron James is 3-7. But does that really matter? Not really. 2013 is a new year and we're about to get into a new month... and this Miami team is as special as those Bulls teams in the 90s. Believe it.

The Spurs have won six of their last seven games, but a lot of those games have been close as the Spurs are starting to show signs of their age wearing the down a little.

I expect this game to get a ton of publicity as it could easily be a preview of the Finals... but today belongs to the Heat.

2* MIAMI

Brett Atkins

My free winner is on the New York Knicks, laying the points against the Boston Celtics. The two Atlantic division rivals are headed in opposite directions right now, and after seeing the Knicks win easily in Boston less than a week ago, it's going to be even easier tonight at Madison Square Garden.

These two certainly would make an intriguing first-round matchup, but while everyone is waiting to see how the seedings pan out, I can tell you right now the team having the best time right now is the Knicks.

Now that Miami has only won one in a row, the Knicks have the longest winning streak in the NBA, having won seven straight. And though the Celtics have rebounded from a five-game slide to win two in a row, they're still no match of this resurgent Knicks team that has been sparked by newly acquired Kenyon Martin.

The Celtics are struggling without Keving Garnett and Rajon Rondo, and New York is going to make its arch-rival suffer on Easter night in the Big Apple.

I'll lay the number with the Knicks.

3♦ N.Y. KNICKS

Brad Wilton

Sunday's comp play comes in the NBA on the home favorite Washington Wizards to handle their business against the Toronto Raptors.

These teams have split a pair of meetings thus far this season, the visitor winning outright in each, but don't look for the Raptors to continue that trend, as the Wizards have won and covered their last 5 on their home court - included are wins in that stretch over the playoff-bound Bucks and Grizzlies.

Toronto is on a 2-7 slide straight up on the road their previous 9, and the points haven't been of much more help with the Raptors on a 3-6 spread slide in those 9 roadies.

Willing to lay a few here, as I expect the Wizards to up their home win streak to 6 straight both up and ATS.

Play is on Washington.

4♦ WASHINGTON

Brad Wilton

Sunday's comp play comes in the NBA on the home favorite Washington Wizards to handle their business against the Toronto Raptors.

These teams have split a pair of meetings thus far this season, the visitor winning outright in each, but don't look for the Raptors to continue that trend, as the Wizards have won and covered their last 5 on their home court - included are wins in that stretch over the playoff-bound Bucks and Grizzlies.

Toronto is on a 2-7 slide straight up on the road their previous 9, and the points haven't been of much more help with the Raptors on a 3-6 spread slide in those 9 roadies.

Willing to lay a few here, as I expect the Wizards to up their home win streak to 6 straight both up and ATS.

Play is on Washington.

4♦ WASHINGTON




Brad Wilton

Sunday's comp play comes in the NBA on the home favorite Washington Wizards to handle their business against the Toronto Raptors.

These teams have split a pair of meetings thus far this season, the visitor winning outright in each, but don't look for the Raptors to continue that trend, as the Wizards have won and covered their last 5 on their home court - included are wins in that stretch over the playoff-bound Bucks and Grizzlies.

Toronto is on a 2-7 slide straight up on the road their previous 9, and the points haven't been of much more help with the Raptors on a 3-6 spread slide in those 9 roadies.

Willing to lay a few here, as I expect the Wizards to up their home win streak to 6 straight both up and ATS.

Play is on Washington.

4♦ WASHINGTON





Jeff Benton

Sunday freebie is the Hornets as the home chalk over the Cavaliers.

Cleveland did win and cover the last series meeting back on February 20th, but with the Cavaliers injury situation continuing to mount - Waiters now sidelined - I think it is time New Orleans continues their recent series domination.

Prior to that loss on 2/20, New Orleans had won three in a row over Cleveland, covering in two of the three.

The Cavaliers are currently riding an eight game losing streak as they arrive in the Big Easy, and they have dropped 12 of their last 14 overall straight up, with covers in just three of their last seven setbacks.

The Hornets have dropped two in a row - both at home - but they have also bested Denver (stopped their long winning streak!) !), Boston and Memphis on this homestand already!

This is a definite step down in competition, so no issue laying a few here with the Hornets to get back on the right side of things versus the walking-wounded Cavs.

3♦ NEW ORLEANS

Scott Delaney

My free winner for Sunday is on the Miami Heat plus the number in San Antonio, as this is one of those game we're going to see if LeBron James and company learned their lesson the other night in Chicago.

Miami had its 27-game win streak snapped in Chicago earlier this week, but then the Heat rolled into New Orleans and took out all the aggression on the Hornets in a blowout win. Now that the Heat have had a chance to cool off and should be ready to play level-headed and focus, it's time to make a statement against one of the Western Conference's top two seeds.

And there's more to bragging rights at stake in this game, as the Heat (57-15) bring a two-game lead in the standings over the Spurs (55-17) into this interconference showdown. A win would give Miami a four-game cushion with nine remaining, and make note, the Heat would control any potential head-to-head tiebreaker with San Antonio.

Lose to the Spurs, and it's a race to the finish.

I know San Antonio has won 28 of its last 30 games at home, but I'm not scared to take the points in this one, as the best team in basketball had its wake-up call in Chicago.

Time to head home after a significant win.

1♦ MIAMI

ATS Top Play of the Day: Duke +3.5 vs. Louisville (Covers 54.1%)

In both games today, the total is a significantly stronger play than the side (ATS), so let's start there. According to our end of season College Basketball Power Rankings, this is the only matchup of top five teams in the nation that we could get all tournament (unless the winner of this game plays Florida in the championship). A competitive contest is certainly expected, but a game of runs will ultimately be key to pushing the total OVER. Of the eight remaining teams, Duke and Louisville are actually the two fastest tempo teams, both averaging 67 or more possessions a game. While that is not incredibly fast, when the two teams play, expect an even quicker tempo - and a lot of easy baskets.

Louisville has won 13 games in a row. In those contests, the Cardinals have averaged 72.7 points-per-game (the game before that, they scored 105 points in 5 OTs). The total has gone OVER in six straight Louisville games (all in postseason play) and is 18-13-1 on the over for the season. The Cardinals love to play fast defensively to force turnovers and change those into transition points. For Duke, with versatile offensive threat Ryan Kelly in the lineup, the Blue Devils have averaged 78.5 points-per-game and are 18-1 straight-up. When Duke is able to break the Cardinals' press, look for open three point looks from one of myriad options or for the ball to move quickly inside to Mason Plumlee for a lay-in.

With two teams that are adept at and comfortable with taking any good looks at the basket that they get, look for a high scoring game. In 50,000 simulations, the Blue Devils and Cardinals combine to average 139.6 points, which covers 57.0% of the time on the OVER and would warrant a $48 wager from a normal $50 player.

As for the against-the-spread angle, as alluded to, this should be a close game. Duke is 30-5 against the ninth toughest schedule in college basketball this season. The Blue Devils are elite nationally in shooting offense and shooting defense, limiting turnovers, free throw rate and minimizing fouls. Teams can beat Duke on the glass on both ends of the floor, but, as was evident against Michigan State, an elite rebounding team that Duke defeated by ten points, that has not been as much of an issue with the 6'11 Kelly on the floor, nor is rebounding a great strength of Louisville's.

The Cardinals topped our final regular season Power Rankings and have been very strong in the tournament. Louisville is 31-5 versus the 14th ranked DI schedule. The team is also elite nationally in shooting offense and defense, limiting turnovers, and free throw rate. What ultimately sets the Cardinals apart from Duke in the win (by a very narrow margin) is the team's propensity to force turnovers. Duke is a good ball-handling team, yet anyone can struggle against Louisville - even Coach K in the tournament. Ultimately, there is not enough of an edge between Louisville's transition dunks and layups and Duke's outside shooting prowess to lay points, leaving some value in Duke +3.5.

In the simulations, Louisville wins 54.7% of the time straight-up and by an average score of 70.6-69.0. As 3.5 point underdogs, Duke covers the spread 54.1% of the time. This is a light play that would justify an $18 wager from a normal $50 player.

Other Paul's Pick of the Day: Florida -1.5 vs. Michigan (Covers 53.5%)

We have championed the Florida Gators just about all season. Despite playing a top-30 schedule, all 29 victories from Billy Donovan's squad have come by double digits. Six of their seven losses have come by six points or less. This team has been competitive throughout the year due to tremendous offensive and defensive balance. Expect that balance to be the edge in what should be a rare, close (and high-scoring) game that Florida eventually wins to earn a trip to Atlanta for the Final Four.

Florida finished the year ranked third in our Power Rankings and as the only team in the top ten in both offensive (#7) and defensive (#2) efficiency in the country. The Gators take note of and thrive on a stingy halfcourt defense that ranks among the top 55 nationally in all "four factors" of defense - effective FG% allowed, turnovers forced, defensive rebounding rate and foul rate. That defense is going to be important to neutralizing the Wolverines perimeter oriented attack. It's the Gators' offense, though, that leads to its victory in our numbers and for the eventual likelihood of the OVER. Florida also ranks in the top 50 nationally in shooting and in limiting turnovers, while still faring well on the offensive boards.

Free throws can certainly be an issue, yet, knowing that, it was great to see Donovan masterfully using his offense/defense substitutions at the end of the Sweet 16 game against Florida Gulf Coast. Mike Rosario, Erik Murphy, Kenny Boynton, Scottie Wilbekin and Michael Frazier - all 72%+ free throw shooters and good ball handlers - were on the court on offensive possession to end yesterday's game. Also, Michigan fouls at the lowest rate of any team in the country, so free throws are not as much of a concern in this contest - even though it should be close throughout.

Michigan is 29-7 and has played the 13th ranked schedule in the country. The Wolverines finished the season ranked second in offensive efficiency in our strength-of-schedule-adjusted metrics, yet would be first at this point. They also shoot the ball at a very high level and rarely turn the ball over. Over the last 11 contests, this team has averaged 74.1 points-per-game and has seen an offensive threat emerge on the inside in Mitch McGary who has averaged double-figures in points in that stretch and is shooting 75.7% from the field in the tournament. Michigan has the offensive weapons to drive up the scores, but lacks tne defensive prowess to be expected to win this game. Michigan ranks below average from the tournament in shooting defense and forcing turnovers. Do not be surprised to see several open outside looks from both teams. In Florida's case, unlike what we saw from Kansas late in the game on Friday, those shots should fall.

In 50,000 games played of Florida vs. Michigan, the Gators win over the Wolverines 58.4% of the time and by an average score of 70.5-67.4. As 1.5 point favorites winning in a close game, Florida covers the spread 53.5% of the time. This is confident enough to recommend just a $12 play from a normal $50 player. That being said, with a relatively clean game, some ultra-efficient inside scorers and plenty of offensive threats on the perimeter, the OVER (132) looks like the best play and covers 57.4% of the time. This "normal" play would warrant a $53 wager from a $50 player.