Post'em!


Dr. Bob CFB

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4 Best Bets this week and 4 Strong Opinions (pay attention to the line constraints).



Rotation #330 Mississippi (-6 1/2) 2-Stars at -7 or less only. Strong Opinion from -7 1/2 to -9 points.
Rotation #360 Texas Tech (+3 1/2) 3-Stars at +3 or more, 2-Stars down to +1.
Rotation #365 Clemson (+4) 2-Stars at +3 or more, 3-Stars at +6 or more.
Rotation #380 LSU (-25) 3-Stars at -26 or less, 2-Stars up to -28.
Strong Opinion - Rotation #350 USC (-44 1/2) Strong Opinion at -45 or less.
Strong Opinion - Rotation #364 Michigan State (-4 1/2) Strong Opinion at -6 or less, 2-Star Best Bet at -3 or less.
Strong Opinion - Rotation #378 Georgia Tech (-2 1/2) Strong Opinion at -3 or less. 2-Star Best Bet at -1 or better.
Strong Opinion - Rotation #381 TCU (-14) Strong Opinion at -14 or less.
Thursday Opinion - Rotation #306 Cincinnati (+2 1/2) Opinion. Strong Opinion at +3 or more.






3 Star Selection
***TEXAS TECH 37 Texas (-3.5) 30
05:00 PM Pacific, 01-Nov-08
If Texas is going to lose this is most likely the game that will trip them up. Not only is Texas in a very negative situation but Texas Tech is every bit as good as the Longhorns are. Texas has been great offensively, averaging 6.8 yards per play against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average team and I actually rate the Longhorns’ attack at 1.6 yppl better than average with Chris Ogbonnaya at running back the last 4 games, as Ogbonnaya is much better than Vondrell McGee or Cody Johnson were when they were getting the bulk of the carries. Texas Tech’s offense is even better, as the Red Raiders have averaged 7.6 yppl with Graham Harrell under center while facing teams that would combine to allow 5.8 yppl to an average team (1.8 yppl better than average). The Texas defense has allowed 5.3 yppl this season to teams that would combine to average 5.9 yppl against an average team while Texas Tech has yielded 5.0 yppl to a schedule of teams that would average 5.7 yppl against an average team, so the Red Raiders also have a slight edge defensively in this game. Both teams are about the same in special teams and Texas Tech has a slight edge in projected turnovers and my math model calls for them to win this game straight up. What I like about this match-up for Texas Tech is their quick hitting pass attack against a vulnerable Texas secondary. Texas is very strong along the defensive line, but their ability to defend the run and to rush the passer (3.5 sacks per game) are negated by the fact that Texas Tech doesn’t run much and Harrell gets rid of the ball so quickly that the opposing pass rush is simply not a factor. Harrell has been sacked only 3 times on 363 pass plays this season and a good pass rushing Nevada team averaging 3.3 sacks per game didn’t touch Harrell. Texas has a good pass defense rating of 1.1 yards per pass play better than average because they get so many sacks, but their secondary has allowed 6.9 yards per pass attempt, which isn’t much better than average. Oklahoma averaged 8.7 yppp and Missouri’s Chase Daniel averaged 7.2 yppp despite having a bad day. Graham Harrell and the Red Raiders’ attack is ideally suited to move the ball against the Longhorns, whose defensive strength along the defensive line will be minimized. Harrell threw for 466 yards on 48 passes last season in a 43-59 loss at Texas and the Longhorns aren’t as likely to score nearly as many points and a much improved Red Raiders’ defense with this game being played in Lubbock, where Tech is at their best. In addition to the line value, the Red Raiders apply to a number of very strong situations – the best of which is a 34-3 ATS subset of a 138-56-3 ATS home momentum situation. Texas, meanwhile, applies to a very negative 5-40 ATS situation that plays against unbeaten teams. Texas is also just 5-12-1 ATS under coach Mack Brown as a road favorite against a team with a winning record. I’ll take Texas Tech in a 3-Star Best Bet at +3 points or more and for 2-Stars from +2 ½ to +1. I’ll also lean with the Under in this game.





3 Star Selection
***LSU (-25.0) 45 Tulane 10
05:00 PM Pacific, 01-Nov-08
LSU may be right in the middle of the conference season, but this will not be a letdown game for the Tigers – especially after just getting whipped by Georgia last Saturday. Les Miles rarely takes it easy on non-conference opponents and his teams have a huge talent edge in these games that he exploits. The Tigers are 10-1 ATS under Miles against non-conference opponents when not favored by more than 40 points and just 8-20-3 ATS in SEC games, so this is exactly the type of game that LSU has covered under Miles. LSU is also 5-1-1 ATS after a loss under Miles and just 11-22-2 ATS after a win, so expect the Green Wave to pay for last week’s loss to Georgia. Miles has actually been good as a big favorite going back to his days coaching at Oklahoma State and he is 10-0 ATS in his career as a favorite of 14 points or more when not coming off a win (8-0 ATS after a loss and 2-0 ATS in game 1). Aside from the team trends, LSU also has a huge advantage on the field against a Tulane team that started the season in pretty good shape but have been hit hard by injuries to key players in recent weeks. Tulane’s big play receiver Jeremy Williams was injured against Army a few weeks ago and the pass attack has struggled since. Williams had amassed 437 receiving yards on 42 balls thrown to him (10.4 yards per attempt) while the rest of Tulane’s passes have averaged 6.3 ypa. Williams’ injury left RB Andre Anderson as the Waves’ only offensive weapon (864 yards at 5.0 ypr), but Anderson was injured early last week against Rice and he’s out indefinitely. Tulane only ran for 67 yards at 2.8 yards per rushing play against a horrible Rice defense last week and they won’t have any success running against LSU’s front line. LSU’s defense has been only 0.2 yards per play better than average this season and they were lit up by the two potent offensive units that they faced, allowing 7.7 yppl to Florida and 7.8 yppl to Georgia last week. However, the Tigers have allowed just 4.3 yppl in their other 5 games (to teams that would average 4.9 yppl against an average team) and I don’t expect a wounded Tulane offense, that I rate at 0.7 yppl worse than average heading into this game, to do much damage. LSU’s offense has moved the ball very well since Jarrett Lee took over at quarterback and the Tigers are 1.4 yppl better than average offensively. That unit should score plenty of points against a Tulane defense that started the season by allowing just 173 yards to Alabama, but have gotten steadily worse as the season has progressed. The Green Wave have allowed 7.0 yppl, 6.9 yppl, and 6.9 yppl in their last 3 games to Army, UTEP, and Rice and I don’t see them stopping a determined LSU squad today. This one sets up for another blowout win over a non-conference opponent for Les Miles’ team and I’ll take LSU in a 3-Star Best Bet at -26 points or less and for 2-Stars from -26 ½ to -28 points.




2 Star Selection
**MISSISSIPPI (-6.5) 28 Auburn 14
09:30 AM Pacific, 01-Nov-08
Auburn has dropped 7 consecutive games to the point spread and they are still overrated. The Tigers’ offense is horrible (4.3 yards per play against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average team) and they’ve averaged just 3.6 yppl in 2 games since changing offensive coordinators. Kodi Burns is the new signal caller for the Tigers, and he may prove to be an upgrade because of his running (220 yards at 4.7 yards per rushing play) despite the fact that his passing numbers are a bit worse than former starter Chris Todd. Auburn’s defense started out the season among the best in the nation, but that unit has struggled in conference play and has allowed 5.8 yppl or more in 3 of their last 6 games. Injuries have played a part in the recent poor play and I do expect the Tigers to start to get better defensively, but they haven’t proven that they can defend an above average attack. Auburn has dominated bad offensive teams this season, but they gave up 6.1 yppl to LSU, 5.8 yppl to Arkansas, and 7.9 yppl to West Virginia last week. Overall the Tigers have been 0.7 yppl better than average defensively, but Ole’ Miss is a very good offensive team that has averaged 5.9 yppl (against teams that would allow 5.0 yppl to an average attack) and the Rebels have performed well against good defensive teams, averaging 5.4 yppl or more against Florida, Alabama, and South Carolina, who are all better defensively than Auburn is. Mississippi’s offense has been 0.2 yppl better than Auburn’s defense this season and the Rebels have a huge edge with their defense (0.3 yppl better than average) going up against a Tigers’ offense that is 1.2 yppl worse than average. Both quarterbacks are a bit interception prone, but Mississippi is a bit more likely to turn the ball over because they’ll likely throw the ball more. Overall, my math model favors Ole’ Miss by 14 ½ points in this game and I’ll take Mississippi in a 2-Star Best Bet at -7 points or less.




2 Star Selection
**Clemson 23 BOSTON COLLEGE (-4.0) 19
12:30 PM Pacific, 01-Nov-08
Clemson’s week off has reportedly revived the Tigers, as the players say they are having fun in practice again under new coach Dabo Swinney and are eager to get back to the field to prove themselves after 3 heartbreaking losses. The Tigers lost all 3 of those games by 5 points or less to good teams Maryland, Wake Forest, and Georgia Tech despite being -3, -1, and -4 in turnover margin in those contests. In other words, the Tigers’ woes are more bad luck than bad play, and averaging -2.0 in turnover margin in their 5 games against Division 1A opposition is not something that is likely to continue. The week off also allowed a couple of key players to get healthy enough to play this week, including quarterback Cullen Harper and star running back C.J. Spiller, whose 6.5 ypr average (6.3 ypr in his career on 322 rushes) was sorely missed the last two games. Clemson’s offense has been just average in their 5 D-1A games, averaging 5.1 yppl against teams that would allow 5.1 yppl to an average team, and that attack is 0.1 yppl better than average with Spiller back to join with James Davis (5.3 ypr) in the backfield. Boston College is very good defensively, allowing 4.4 yppl to 6 Division 1A opponents that would combine to average 5.1 yppl against an average team, so the Eagles have a 0.6 yppl advantage over Clemson’s offense – although they aren’t quite as good without top LB Brian Toal and perhaps S Wes Davis, who missed last week’s game. However, Clemson’s rugged defense (4.7 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.7 yppl against an average team) has a 1.4 yppl advantage over a bad BC attack that has averaged only 5.0 yppl against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team. Turnover margin shouldn’t be an issue in this game for Clemson given that Harper’s 8 interceptions on 182 passes (4.4%) is considerably better than the 12 picks that the Eagles’ Chris Crane has thrown on 216 attempts (5.6%). Clemson also has better special teams and the Tigers should be favored in this game according to my math model, which successfully picked against Boston College last week with North Carolina. I’ll take Clemson in a 2-Star Best Bet at +3 points or more (at -1.15 odds or better) and for 3-Stars at +6 points or more.

Thursday Opinion
CINCINNATI 26 S. Florida (-2.5) 23
04:45 PM Pacific, 30-Oct-08
Both of these teams are coming off upset losses but Cincinnati’s credibility was hurt more by losing 16-40 at U Conn, which looks much worse than USF’s 20-24 loss at Louisville. Cincy’s loss, however, was more about being -6 in turnovers in that game than being dominated by Connecticut, as the Bearcats were only out-gained 4.4 yppl to 4.8 yppl and had to play ½ the game with their 3rd string quarterback. That will be the case again here, as 2nd string QB Tony Pike will not play after losing feeling in his broken non-throwing arm, which kept him out the previous month. Chazz Anderson started 2 games in place of Pike and original starter Grutza, and his numbers aren’t nearly as good – averaging just 5.3 yards per pass play despite facing teams that would combine to allow 7.1 yppp to an average quarterback. The Bearcats are 0.8 yards per play worse than average offensively with Anderson at quarterback, but they have a good defense (0.6 yppl better than average) and very good special teams – so they are still capable of beating an overrated South Florida team that is just 0.3 yppl better than average offensively and 0.1 yppl worse than average on defense (5.0 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.1 yppl against an average team). The Bulls simply aren’t good defensively, despite their reputation of being a good defensive team. All-American George Selvie isn’t putting up the ridiculous numbers he posted last season, although he does have 5 sacks and 5 other tackles for loss, and South Florida sorely misses last year’s two great cornerbacks, who are both in the NFL this season. South Florida also has a few injuries on the defensive side of the ball, as starters SS Carlton Williams and DL Terrell McClain are both listed as questionable. I make this game a pick with Anderson at quarterback for Cincinnati and the Bearcats apply to a solid 104-48-2 ATS bounce-back situation. South Florida doesn’t apply to any general situations, but the Bulls are 16-9 ATS after a loss, which dampens my enthusiasm a bit. I'd consider Cincinnati a Strong Opinion at +3 or more.



Strong Opinion
MICHIGAN ST. (-4.5) 30 Wisconsin 20
09:00 AM Pacific, 01-Nov-08
Wisconsin had been 0-4 straight up and 0-4 ATS in Big 10 play before upsetting Illinois last week, but that wins sets up the Badgers in a very negative 11-49-2 ATS subset of a 47-106-2 ATS road letdown situation. Unfortunately, my math model isn’t that impressed with Michigan State and the math favors the Spartans by just 3 points. The situation more than makes up for the lack of line value, but I will resist making the Spartans a Best Bet unless the line goes down to 3 points. I’ll consider Michigan State a Strong Opinion at -6 points or less and I’d take Michigan State in a 2-Star Best Bet at -3 points or less (-1.15 odds or better).



Strong Opinion
GEORGIA TECH (-2.5) 27 Florida St. 19
12:30 PM Pacific, 01-Nov-08
Georgia Tech let me down last week with an upset loss to Virginia, but that was the first time all season that the underrated Yellow Jackets have not covered the spread and they are likely to get back on the right side of the ledger today. Florida State is a decent team, averaging 4.9 yards per play on offense and allowing 4.6 yppl on defense in 5 games against Division 1A competition that would combine to be out-gained 4.8 yppl to 5.2 yppl by an average team. In other words, the Seminoles are about an average team from the line of scrimmage and just a bit better than average overall after adding in special teams. Georgia Tech, meanwhile, has averaged 5.8 yppl and allowed just 4.4 yppl to a schedule of 6 Division 1A teams that would combine averaging 5.2 yppl and allow 5.3 yppl to an average team. Georgia Tech has been much better than average on both sides of the ball and they should be favored by more than a touchdown in this game. My math model gives the Yellow Jackets a 62% chance of covering at -2 points based solely on the math, but they unfortunately apply to a negative 46-102-2 ATS situation that will keep me from making this game a Best Bet. That situation has about a 56% of covering at a fair line, which gives the Yellow Jackets a solid 56% chance of covering when I combine the math with the negative situation. I’ll consider Georgia Tech a Strong Opinion at -3 points or less and I’d take Georgia Tech in a 2-Star Best Bet at -1 or better.




Strong Opinion
USC (-44.5) 54 Washington 3
03:30 PM Pacific, 01-Nov-08
USC was in a tough spot last week in Arizona, but they dominated that game against a good Wildcats squad more than the 17-10 final score indicates. The Trojans out-gained Arizona 368 yards at 4.8 yards per play to 188 yards at 3.1 yppl and should have won by more than 7 points. USC is not in a negative situation this week and the Trojans can name the score against a horrible Washington team that is winless this season and just 1-6 ATS. The Huskies are a bit improved offensively since Ronnie Fouch took over the quarterbacking after Jake Locker was injured, as Fouch is a much better passer. However, Washington still rates at 0.5 yppl worse than average offensively and they don’t stand much of a chance against a dominating USC stop unit that’s yielded just 3.5 yppl and 8 points per game to a schedule of teams that would combine to average 5.7 yppl and 29 points against an average defensive team. USC has an even bigger advantage when they have the ball, as the Trojans’ offense is 1.8 yppl better than average (6.7 yppl against teams that would allow 5.0 yppl to an average team) while Washington’s young defensive unit is 1.2 yppl worse than average (7.3 yppl allowed to teams that would average 6.1 yppl). My math model favors USC by 50 ½ points and the Trojans are 31-10 ATS under coach Pete Carroll from game 8 on (3-1 ATS as a favorite of more than 28 points), so the Trojans should begin to play even better. USC’s backups are all top recruits too, so there is little drop-off when the subs enter the game - so the margin should continue to rise until the final gun. I’ll consider USC a Strong Opinion at -45 points or less and I’d take USC as a 2-Star Best Bet at -42 points or less.



Strong Opinion
TCU (-14.0) 35 UNLV 16
05:00 PM Pacific, 01-Nov-08
UNLV is coming off a 35-42 loss as a 23 ½ point dog against an overrated BYU squad and they may not have much left for a TCU team with a dominating defense and a surging offense. UNLV is a good offensive team, averaging 5.8 yards per play against teams that would combine to allow 5.4 yppl to an average team, but they aren’t good enough to move the ball with any consistency against a great TCU defense that has yielded just 3.8 yppl and 10.4 points per game to a schedule of teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl and 24.8 points against an average defensive unit. TCU allowed 35 points to Oklahoma’s potent attack (the fewest points Oklahoma has scored this season), they gave up 14 points to a good Stanford offense and they’ve allowed 7 points or fewer in their other 7 games, including giving up just 4.2 yppl to BYU. Only Oklahoma has been able to average more than 4.2 yppl against the Frogs, so UNLV has their work cut out for them today. The Rebels aren’t likely to score more than 14 points and their horrible defense (6.7 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.5 yppl against an average team) will have a tough time keeping TCU below 30 points in this game. The Horned Frogs were without starting quarterback Andy Dalton for a couple of games, but Dalton returned for the 32-7 win over BYU and he’s been great since coming back to the lineup. TCU is still 0.2 yppl worse than average offensively for the season with Dalton under center, but they’ve been 0.9 yppl better than average in 2 games since Dalton returned from injury. Even using TCU’s season rating would yield a prediction of 36 points for the Horned Frogs against UNLV’s porous stop unit. The Horned Frogs have a 58% chance of covering at -14 points based solely on line value (based on the historical performance of my math model) but the Rebels have a 10-4 ATS mark as a home underdog while TCU is just 4-13 ATS in recent years as a road favorite of more than 7 points (1-1 this year). The team trends are enough to keep me from making this game a Best Bet but I still like the Horned Frogs. I’ll consider TCU a Strong Opinion at -14 points or less.

Matt FARGO's **10** One-n-Only NCAA Game of the Year** - Saturday

Spylock
Connecticut....5 unit
Boston College
TCU
Utah......1 unit each

Northcoast Plays of the Week:

Early Bird-BYU -14.5
Pac-10-Stanford -30 (7-2 this year)
NFL Totals Comp-Atlanta/Oakland under 41


North Coast Sports

Power Play Gow....ole' Miss -6
Early Bird Pow...byu -14
Comp Under Dog Pow...utep +2
Big Dog Pow....unlv +14'
#2 Economy Club Play....uab +8'
Pac 10 Pow....stanford -30
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M@linsky Saturday
6* Wyoming -3.5
4* West Mich -17.5
4* S. Carolina -5
4* Ark State +23.5

DOC
BIG TEN GAME OF YEAR

8 Unit Play. #24 Take Michigan State Spartans over Wisconsin Badgers (Saturday 12:00 pm ESPN) Big 10 Game of the Year. A have a bunch of reasons why this choice was made so lets get rolling. First lets talk about Wisconsin, a team that was predicted to finish high in the Big 10 standing. They have just one conference victory and most handicappers fail to see that their defense is totally overrated. Every team in the conference has run on them and their secondary can be burned deep. Granted Juice Williams did not perform well, but his receivers were wide open, he just missed the throws. In their last six road games, Bucky has given up 206 points (34 points per game). Wisconsin does have two great running backs in Hill and Clay; however, the quarterback has been the real problem for them. QB Sherer has taken over and did not perform well at Iowa and expect MSU to force him to beat them through the air. This is something Wisconsin is not capable of doing especially without TE Travis Beckum


DOC

4 Unit Play. #79 Take Arkansas State Red Wolves over Alabama Crimson Tide (Saturday 3:00 pm ESPN Gameplan) No question this selection is based primarily on going against Alabama then it is going with the Wolves. Bama has just come off of four emotional conference games (Georgia, Kentucky, Ole Miss, & Tennessee). Now they face Arkansas State and this non-conference opponent will be hard to get up for. Expect them to just go through the motions, win the game and move on. They have a road trip to LSU next week and that game will get most of their focus even this week. The Red Wolves are coming off of a bye and have nothing to lose. They have played competitive all season long and will keep this one close as well. Alabama 28, Arkansas State 14.
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Bettorsworld

KEY RELEASE


3* Duke +8 over Wake Forest - Never in a million years did we think we'd have a Key Release on Duke in the 2008-2009 football season. After many years of being one of the worst, if not the worst team in college football, the Duke Blue Devils are 4-3 and can smell a Bowl Game on the horizon. This team is hungry, and is playing some good football. Duke is #6 in the Nation in turnover margin at +9 and while Wake Forest is right behind them on that list, the Demon Deacons are struggling offensively. After scoring 30 points on opening day, Wake Forest has scored 12, 17, 12, 0 and 10 points. That's an average of 10 points per game and they are laying 8 in this game. Not much room for error.

Duke playing some decent football these days. Not great, but good. They had one game this year that was lopsided, otherwise they have been in them all. Their yards per point on offense is a nice 13 and defensively they have a decent 16. Anytime the defensive ypp number is higher than the offensive number, that's a good thing. Wake Forest has a nice ypp number of 18 defensively but it's the 17 on offense that attracts us to this play. They just aren't putting the ball in the end zone.

Something else we like to do when taking a look at teams that play each other every year is to take a look at recent results. Why? To see if the talent is there to compete in the first place. Common sense really. In this case, a team like Duke is loaded with returning starters from a year ago. 10 on defense and 7 on offense. It's pretty much the same team talent wise as a year ago. If we looked at past results and saw a string of 30 point losses every year, we'd back off. That would suggest the talent gap couldn't possibly have closed that much in a year. But guess what? Here's the scores of the last 4 years of games between these two.

2007 - Wake Forest 41-36

2006 - Wake Forest 14-13

2005 - Wake Forest 44-6

2004 - Wake Forest 24-22

All Wake Forest wins, but 3 of the 4 games were decided by 5, 2 and 1 point. 2005 wasn't close. But 3 of the 4 years suggests the talent gap is close. Particularly when you look at the more recent results of the last two years. Wake Forest has been one of our favorite teams to get involved with over the last few years. We saw their success coming and jumped on their wagon early and as a result cashed quite a few nice winners along the way. But there's a good chance, just as in the stock market, that the Wake Forest stock has peaked. This price of -8 suggests perhaps that Wake Forest living off their past reputation in the eyes of the betting public and the oddsmakers, not what they have done lately. As it is, they have lost 4 of 6 against the spread this year.

Again, laying 8 when you've averaged 10 points per game in your last 5 games is a tall order. But what puts this one over the top for us is the magic number of 6. That's the number of wins required to earn a Bowl bid and with Duke sitting at 4 wins, and with the schedule the rest of the way not exactly easy, this opportunity to grab a win becomes HUGE. If Duke came close 3 out of 4 years against Wake Forest teams that were much better than this years bunch, then they can certainly come close while having one of their best years in a long time. The straight up win and the chance for a bowl is what they're looking at. Getting +7.5 or + 8 is a nice spot here. This play good all the way down to +7. 3* Duke + 8

ASA
11/1/2008
2:00:00 PM Arkansas State Indians (+24)
over ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE
ASA 3-Star Arkansas State (+24) over Alabama - 2:00 pm CST
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Sat, 11/01/08 - 12:30 PM
Jeff Bonds | CFB Side

triple-dime bet329 Auburn 6.5 (-110) Bodog vs 330 Mississippi
Analysis:
Finally handicappers get to play the Auburn Tigers at an UNDERVALUED price, as they've suffered through a 1-8 ATS mark.

First off - Tommy Tuberville is on a major "hot seat" and he's got an opponent that he's very familiar with. Tuberville was at Ole Miss before heading to Auburn.

Auburn was in a terrible spot last week - playing on the road on Thursday night - against one of the best home teams in America that was very accustomed to playing the midweek tilt.

The Tigers brought in a new offensive coordinator and it made significant improvement in the first half against the Mountaineers before sputtering in the second half. With more than a regular week to prepare - things will be much tighter against the Rebels.

Ole Miss is ripe for an upset - after playing against head coach Houston Nutt's former team. Tuberville knows this, as the Tigers held Nutt's Razorbacks to just 67 yards rushing last year......that was with two first round draft picks in the same backfield.

One of the best underdogs in CFB rises up and grabs the cash



Sat, 11/01/08 - 2:30 PMJeff Bonds | CFB Side
double-dime bet342 Louisiana Tech 5.5 (-110) SportBet vs 341 Fresno St.
Analysis:
Play Louisiana Tech +5.5 at Bookmaker.com

Fresno State is on its last leg due to the amount of travel its been through this season and it will certainly show up down in the deep south on Saturday. At the end of the 2008 regular season - this team will have traveled more miles than any team in the country outside of Hawaii.

The Bulldogs barely survived at Utah State last week - thanks to a 58-yard field goal, but things get much tougher against a LA Tech team that hasn't allowed a 100-yard rusher all season.

Louisiana Tech is a dominant 3-0 ATS at home this season and it continues this Saturday!




Sat, 11/01/08 - 8:00 PMJeff Bonds | CFB Side
double-dime bet380 LSU -26.5 (-110) SportBet vs 379 Tulane
Analysis:
I'll be quick to point out that Nick Saban's fingerprint has almost faded away in terms of players that are currently on the LSU roster, as he may have recruited a few - but I'll assure you that current head coach Les Miles will have the Tigers ready to roar against Tulane before next week's monumental matchup.

The Tigers were absolutely embarassed at home last week against the Georgia Bulldogs. This is VERY BAD NEWS for a very outmanned Tulane team that head coach Bob Toledo coins as "beat up". A Green Wave team that was absolutely mauled by Army.....Now they walk into a graveyard, as Tigers Stadium is a much different place at night then under the sun.

Miles has never lost two consecutive games at LSU during his reign and his team is 8-1 ATS in those contests. He was also very prolific in bouncing back in Stillwater before heading south to LSU.

Lay the points in an absolute blowout!

Norm Hitzges

NCAA

Double Plays

Florida -6 vs Georgia

Single Plays

Texas Tech +4 vs Texas
Texas A&M -3.5 vs Colorado
Nebraska +22 vs Oklahoma
Kansas State +10 vs Kansas
Notre Dame -4.5 vs Pittsburgh
South Carolina -5.5 vs Tennessee
LSU -25 vs Tulane
Oregon State -15 vs Arizona State
San Jose -16.5 vs Idaho
West Virginia -4 vs UConn
Air Force -8.5 vs Army
Kent State +6.5 vs Bowling Green
Arkansas State +22.5 vs Alabama
Louisville -13.5 vs Syracuse
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Alex Smart comp

Miami (Florida) +2.5
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LT Profits comp

Army +8.5
__________________

Marc Lawrence

Super Pick

Play On: Army
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Matt Fargo GOY

Miami +2
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BIG AL

Saturday
5* Texas Tech+6 (released on Tuesday)
3* Northwestern+7 (added today)
1* New Mexico+7.5
1* New Mexico State+21.5
1* California-3
1* Oklahoma-21
1* Arkansas+7
__________________

Gold Sheet Super Power 7

Notre Dame
__________________

Dave Cokin CFB GOM

Iowa
__________________

Brian Leonard GOY

New Mexico
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Sat, 11/01/08 - 3:30 PM
King Creole | CFB Side

double-dime bet 347 Florida -6.5 (-110) BetUS vs 348 Georgia
Analysis: #347 / Florida vs Georgia / 3:30pm ET
2** BEST BET on: FLORIDA GATORS -6.5 or less points

#375 / Kentucky @ Mississippi State / 2:30pm ET
1* Play on: KENTUCKY WILDCATS
*Buy to +3 if possible

#380 / Tulane @ LSU / 8:00pm ET /
1* Play on: LSU TIGERS minus 26.5 or less points


Let-down of epic proportions for Georgia, who did something last week that not too many SEC teams have done: BEAT UP on Lsu IN Baton Rouge.
5-12 ATS since 1991 for All SEC teams who beat LSU @ Home last week (play against Georgia). If these SEC team won ATS by more than 10 points last week, they are 2-11-1 ATS.

Florida's offense is peaking at the right time, putting up 63 points last week versus Kentucky... and 51 against the Tigers of Lsu the week before that.
13-2 ATS cine 2001 for AL conference favs of -14 < points off as SU conference win of 50 or more points (FLORIDA). These teams have gone a PERFECT 4-0 ATS in the last 4 seasons.

12-2 ATS in the last 4 years for ALL conference favs of < 28 points off BACK-to-BACK conference games in which they scored 50 or more points in each game. When these teams are taking on an opponent (like Georgia) off a SUATS win, the results improve to a PERFECT 4-0 ATS.

It's time to get off the Bulldog bandwagon despite 3 SEC wins in a row.... whenever these teams are installed as (surprising) dogs
3-0 ATS since 1999 for all conference dogs of 6 > points playing off 3 SU conference wins in a row (georgia)... with the last win on the ROAD by 14 or more points. This great System is already a PERFECT 3-) ATS in the 2008 season.

Speaking of Kentucky, last week's ugly loss at the hands of the Gators has the Wildcats in a good 'Play ON' position this week.
9-1 ATS since 1999 for all conference dogs of 7 < points off a SU Loss of 50 or more points (KENTUCKY). These teams are a PERFECT 5-0 ATS since the 2001 season.

Mississippi State's 3 wins this year were against one decent team... and 2 ****ty non-conference opponents (Mid Tenn St / SE Louisiana). Last week, they got a win... but not the cash.
4-15 ATS for all SEC conference home favs of -5 < points off a SU win non conference win (Miss St)... and 1-6 ATS off a SU win BUT and ATS loss.

ALL three of our games ties-in very nicely together. With LSU getting crushed last week, they're looking for a whipping boy on Saturday. Enter the reeling Green Wave of Tulane, who got creamed as home favs last week to Rice (42-17). The Tigers are ALWAYS a great play when they lost at home in their last game.
LSU is 12-3-1 ATS when playing off a conference home loss... and a PERFECT 4-0 ATS at home.
In the last 5 years, SEC teams playing off a home loss of 14 > points in which they were a favorite or 'pick' (LSU) are a PERFECT 5-0 ATS against non-conference competition.

1-6 ATS since 2001 for ALL non-conference teams playing off a SU conference home loss of 21 > points in which they were a favorite of -3 > points. These teams (Tulane) are a PERFECT 0-4 ATS vs any opponent off a SU loss.
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Kelso Sturgeon

Personal Best Club

College Game Of The Month

100 Units

OKLAHOMA (-21) over Nebraska

Prediction: Oklahoma by 35

Starting Time: 8:00

TV: ESPN

Weather in Norman: Clear, with game-time temperature of 72 degrees, relative humidity of 43% and with wind out of the SSE at 5 MPH.

Comments: The biggest single issue in releasing Oklahoma as a 100-unit play is the fact the Sooners (7-1) still have a chance to play for the national championship and they can showcase themselves tonight on national television. The Sooners will show every one just how good they are and you can take it to the bank Oklahoma coach Bob Stoops will show absolutely no mercy to his good friend, Nebraska coach Bo Pelini. That is just the beginning of the handicapping process in this one. My figures say there is no way Nebraska (5-3) is going to be able to keep up with the no huddle offense of Oklahoma. The Sooners run it with perfection and have used it to rip apart better teams than Nebraska this season. In breaking down the game element by element it is difficult to find any factor other than special teams where the Cornhuskers have any edge. Oklahoma is an incentive-drive team tonight and will turn all the big guns lose in a game that should be a monster blowout.
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Jim Feist Rivalry Lock

Georgia
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Scott Spreitzer Cfb Trifecta Of The Month

Tulsa/ Ark Under
Colorado St
Oregon
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Big Al Mcmordie

10 Dimes Club- Pitt

VEGAS EXPERTS Tip Of The Day

Central Michigan at Indiana
Saturday, November 1st, 12:00 ET

Last Saturday's Tip of the Day was on Georgia over LSU as we noted that we were not only taking the better team, but getting points as well. Same situation this week with Central Michigan at Indiana. Hoosiers are due for a letdown after LW's upset of Northwestern. Don't believe us? IU is just 1-8 ATS when coming off a home win. The Chippewas are one of the better pointspread teams in the country, going 23-10 ATS L33, including 8 for 8 in this price range.

Play on: Central Michigan
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Tim Trushel

20* wisc (big10 goy)
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The Gold Medal Club

NHL
Saturday Night Selection
13 Dallas @ 14 Boston 7:05 pm

PLAY ON 13 DALLAS +

We will certainly take advantage of a scheduling goldmine here. Boston returns home with little to no rest after completing there west coast road trip, and the first game back is always hard for any team in the NHL.
Now they face a Dallas team that is 8-2 in this series, and showed great resiliency in there last game against a solid Minnesota squad.
The advantage here is with the Stars, and to catch them at this price is a gift! Enjoy
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Tom Freese comp

Arizona St at Oregon St (10:15pm)

Oregon St is 23-9-1 ATS vs. losing teams and they are 6-0 ATS off a bye week. The Beavers are 6-0 ATS off a straight up win and they are 38-18-1 ATS their last 57 home games. Arizona St is 2-9 ATS their last 11 games and they are 7-20 ATS their last 27 November games. The Sun Devils are 2-6 ATS after allowing over 200 yards rushing in their last game and they are 1-6 ATS their last 7 road games vs. teams with a winning home record. PLAY ON OREGON ST
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Ethan Law

3% with NM +7.5
3% with Utah State +7

2% with UTEP +3
2% with Washington +46
2% with GT -2
2% with ASU +15.5
2% with Arkansas +7
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WILD BILL

Central Mich +2 1/2 (5 units)
Iowa +1 1/2 (5 units)
Auburn +6 (5 units)
San Diego St +3 1/2 (5 units)
Georgia +5 1/2 (5 units)
Texas Tech +6 1/2 (5 units)
BYU -14 1/2 (5 units)
Wash St +30 (5 units)
Kentucky +3 (5 units)
Florida St +2 (5 units)
TCU -14 (5 units)
Rice -2 (5 units)
Ark St +24 (5 units)
Under 50 Iowa-Illini (5 units)
Over 65 Iowa St-Okie State (5 units)
Arkansas +7 (5 units)
Over 38 Tenn-South Carolina (5 units)
Over 56 1/2 Georgia-Fla (5 units)
Over 64 1/2 Oregon-Cal (5 units)
Under 71 1/2 Nebraska-Oklahoma (5 units)
Over 55 BYU-Colorado St (5 units)
Over 54 Boise-N M State (5 units)
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Pointwise phones

4-Fla, Ore
3-Ore St, T Tech, Minn, S Car, Louis, Mich St, Stanford
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Kelso Club Plays

15 units LSU -26.5
5 units Tx Tech +3.5
4 units Georgia +6.5
3 units Oregon +2.5
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JB Sports

3* South Carolina -5.5

2* UTEP +3

2* Florida -6.5
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MATT RIVERS

1. 200,000* Arkansas

2. 75,000* Syracuse

3. 50,000* Florida

4. 50,000* Navy
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ATS Lock Club
25 Louisiana LaFayette -7.5
7 South Carolina -5.5
6 Mississippi State -2.5
6 Texas -3
5 Arkansas +7
4 Nets -5.5

ATS Financial Package
4 W. Virginia -3.5
4 Rice -2.5
4 Mississippi -6.5
4 Lakers -7
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PPP

4% Kansas St.
3% Minnesota
3% Texas Tech
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Sebastian

100* Pittsburgh
20* Wisconsin, Miami, under 68 Kansas/KState
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John Fina

NCAA - 5 units on Boise State -20.5 (-110)

NCAA - 2.5 units on Louisiana Monroe +10.5 (-110)

NCAA - 2.5 units on Tulane +28.5 (-110)

NCAA - 2.5 units on TCU -14.5 (-110)

NCAA - 2.5 units on ABU +8.5 (-110)

NCAA - 2.5 units on Rice -2.5 (-110)
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Brandon Lang

Saturday's winners ....

15 Dime Florida State
15 Dime Florida
15 Dime 6-point teaser on Oregon State/Minnesota

Free pick - Texas
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RON RAYMOND'S 5* BIG 10 GAME OF THE MONTH!
Pick # 1 Northwestern (7.0)
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the pro source

missouri-19
lsu -25 blowout gow
oregon st-12 pac 10 goy
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Matt FARGO's **10** One-n-Only NCAA Game of the Year** - Saturday

MIAMI
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Primetime Sports Advisors

Early Releases
5 units West Virginia -4
5 units South Carolina -5.5
5 units Florida -6
5 units Texas Tech +4
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Colin Cowherd
Florida 34-20
WVirg 30-20
Oregon 34-27
Texas 37-30

Colin Cowherd
8-2 last 2 weeks 27-15-2 Overall
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BEN BURNS
WAC GAME OF YEAR

I'm taking the points with UTAH STATE. I feel the situation favors the home underdog here. For starters, the Warriors are in the middle of a gruelling schedule spot. Indeed, for the entire season, they have alternated between home and away games. That means they've been flying back and forth from Hawaii to the mainland nearly every weekend. They began the season with a game on the East Coast, taking on Florida at Gainesville. They then flew home the following week and back on the road the next. That pattern has been repeated over and over again. Most recently, they took on Boise on the blue turf and then flew home to face Nevada last weekend. Now, it's back on the road again. They've been playing fairly well recently but I expect all the travel miles to finally catch up with the Warriors here. While it won't affect them this week, note that the Warriors do get some "scheduling relief" after this, as they will play back to back road games for the first time all year and then fly home to play their final three games at home. In addition to the travel factor, I also feel that the Warriors will be ripe for an emotional letdown here. While it's important for them to keep winning, the Warriors are off back to back huge games and it will be much tougher to get fired up for "lowly" Utah State. That will prove costly though as the Aggies very nearly beat Fresno State last week, eventually losing by two points when the Bulldogs hit a long field goal. Yes, the Aggies have a poor (1-7) record. In fairness, they've played a very tough schedule though. Four games came on the road. All were against 1-A teams, including Oregon. Additionally, two of their four home games came against Utah and BYU and those two teams are a combined 15-1. Their other two home games resulted in a 2-point loss against a solid Fresno squad (see above) and a blowout victory vs. Idaho. The Warriors are just 1-3 on the road and that victory came by only a field goal. Dating back to last October, they're 2-5 SU/ATS on the road and both victories were by three points or less. The Aggies come in at 3-0 ATS their last three home games and they should bring some confidence with them. For starters, they played very well against Fresno and nearly beat the Bulldogs. Additionally, they had some success against the Warriors last season. They produced a season high in both points and total yards and easily earned the cover. That was at Hawaii vs. a much more dangerous team. This year, the Aggies are improved and playing at home. QB Diondre Borel has started the last five games and has played well, recording more than 1100 yards of offense. As Coach Guy had to say: "He is getting better every week. I think that just comes with the experience that he is getting. Those guys he is playing with in front of him did a good job. He didn't get sacked and avoided the rush. That helps a lot when you are not worrying about those things." While they did earn the victory, the Warriors struggled to contain Nevada's read-option rushing attack, giving up more than 300 yards on the ground. The Aggies use a similar attack and Hawaii coach Greg McMackin knows that his team will have it's hands full trying to contain Borel. He was quoted as saying: "Utah State quarterback Diondre Borel is running all over the place. Nobody is like the guy (Nevada's Colin Kaepernick) we faced this week, but he's a close second." Look for an inspired effort from Borel and co. as they take this game down to the wire and earn at least the cover. *WAC GOY

BEN BURNS
PAC 10 GAME OF MONTH

I'm taking the points with ARIZONA STATE. I feel these teams are more evenly matched than their records indicate. I also believe that we're getting excellent value with a line which has climbed from it's opener, all the way up past the two touchdown mark. Yes, it's true that the Beavers have enjoyed a much better season. Let's keep in mind that the Sun Devils were favored by 11 or 11.5 points at Tempe in last season's meeting with the Beavers - they won by 12 points. Arizona State returned 13 starters from that team, which went 10-3, while Oregon State, which went 9-4, returned only 10 starters. Note that the Sun Devils currently have 16 seniors on the roster. The point I'm trying to make is that there has been nearly a four touchdown swing in the pointspread from last season, I feel this an over-reaction. Indeed, despite returning more starters, Arizona State has gone from double-digit favorites to double -digit underdogs. Many teams with a record like Arizona State might already think about quitting and looking ahead to next season by giving their young players more playing time. Arizona State coach Dennis Erickson insists he has no plans of doing that though and was quoted as saying: All I care about is for those seniors to go out as winners," Erickson said "That's the most important thing to me. Nothing in the future concerns me right now other than what happens for those seniors that are going to finish their career in the next five weeks." In fact, with games against Washington and Washington State on deck (followed by UCLA and Arizona to close the season) the Sun Devils know that if they can find a way to score the upset this week that they'll very likely be able to generate a winning streak. "You just deal with it one game at a time, where you're at and the direction you're trying to go," Erickson went on to say:. "We have a very good focus on what we need to get done, and that's what we're trying to do every day...We are going to stay the damn course, and you do it every day and every week, things turn. It'll just happen." Keep in mind that Erickson, along with several assistants, coached at Oregon State previously. That makes this week's game a little extra special and I look for the Sun Devils to bounce back with a huge effort, earning at least the cover. *Pac 10 GOM