Always wanted to implement Oscars Grind betting system to sports. Always wandered why nobody mentions it. This betting scheme is perfect for baseball dogs that hit 50%>. I would call this a conservative chase system. I know alot of you disdain chases, but I feel this one is superior. Now the units can get pretty high when losing period long, but whats great about this is that you don't increase your unit until you win. Anyway,here is a link for anyone interested :

http://www.bjmath.com/bjmath/progress/prog1.htm


I will apply this to an underdog system that Bob Baffert, formerly of the den, had success with. I will use his best filters, and add one other filter. That filter will be to eliminate any play if two of Dens' top baseball cappers are on the opposite side.

The first play will be on the Pitt Pirates for 1 unit +122


For those interested the details of the system are below:

"I mentioned the dog system and posted these picks under the new dog system some time back. I have been quiet with them but I feel I should share them with the board. The numbers above go through July 10th. I am a few days off but will get them caught up. This is base on one simple premise. Take a dog when the pitchers era is better than the favorites. Filter games where one pitch does not have 40IP and do not bet games below +110 or above equal to or above -200.

What you should notice.

57.6% picking dogs over about a 2 month period. These numbers are very good.

74-30 RL winners on dogs. 71% RL winners +21.6 units.

Ok. Those are the basic stats. Pretty good. I have been doing very well with these numbers. Now I am gonna throw some situations out there that are really strong in favor of dogs. These need more work but can help you decide to bet more units or not.

Here are some stats
ERA1 is the era of the dog, the lower era
ERA2 is the era of the fav, the higher era
Difference is the difference between the two

Ok.

ERA1 stats (ML then RL)
<3.00 (8-11) -0.85 (17-7) +1.75
3.00-3.99 (24-12) +21.95 (25-11) +8.34
4.00-4.99 (23-17) +12.2 (31-9) +15.55
5.00 up (6-4) +3.55 (6-4) +1.95

Notes - Stick with middle eras. Low eras and high eras are bad. Notice the 24-12 ML on dogs with era1 between 3 and 3.99. Very good place for bets. Also the 31-9 RL on 4 to 4.99, another good place to look for dogs.

ERA2
Skipping the stats. Just stay away from eras below 4 on the era2. They are losers. Also, the strongest stat of all is here:

Era2 above 5.50
16-4 ML DOGS!
18-2 RL DOGS!

Era 2 above 6.00
5-2 ML DOGS
7-0 RL DOGS!

Difference Stats
Above 2.00 8-4 ML +6.35 10-2 RL +7.25
Between 1.00 and 1.99 14-6 ML +12.9 16-4 RL +10.0
Less than 1.00 38-34 ML +17.60 48-24 RL +10.40

Good stuff thanks

this looks great. didnt get a play in on the pirates but will definately be following this. Ive never been a chaser because quite frankly I dont have the stomach for it. I like the filters you have implemented and I may come on board. gl. with your pirates tonight............................................

I really like this system and am going to implement something like this into my baseball plays.

Thanks for the good work and bringing something like this to the forefront.

Pitt +122 loser -1 unit


possible play on Twins tomorrow depending on line move.


Next play will be for one unit. Remember......goal is to win one unit, but we do not increase our units until we get a win.

gl with the system.

might be a dumb question but what does "filter games when 1 pitcher does not have 40 innings pitched" mean exactly?
Thanks.

Am I figuring this right?

Twins were a dog @ +113. According to Feist's facts, Twins pitcher's ERA was 3.91 and Texas pitcher's was 4.53. This would qualify as a play under these filters:

1- Dog pitcher has lower ERA.
2 - Dog line is between +110 and +200.
3 - The information isn't in Feist's Facts but I'm assuming both pitchers have more than 40IP.
4 - I didn't see "two of the Den's top cappers" on the other side.
5 - The favorite' picher's ERA is not less than 4.00.

Under the Oscar grind system, the bet would be one unit since we lost the one unit bet yesterday.

Thanks for posting and please let me know if I'm not doing it right. I eliminated Oakland as a play because of #5 above.

Zack

Looks right to me zac. That's what i got. I assume 40 ip means lifetime?

I think the 40IP refers to innings pitched this year. I don't know where to find that stat but in Feist's "probables" it shows how many innings the pitchers have pitched in the last three appearances.

Incidentally, I see the final in the Twins game is in our favor.

Thanks again, ecarc.

Zack

I would stay away from feist. I see 3 wrong ERA for thurs. Use MLB or covers stats-sheets.
Nice win twins!

by the way. KC PHIL HUST are thurs plays. I think.

Sorry, but I don't have computer access until around this time on weekdays. I would appreciate it if some of you could help out on day games like today.

Zac- you were correct in making the Twins a play. I was not able to make the bet, but I will include it in the overall record for tracking purposes.

Wrag- If one pitcher does not have at least 40 innings of work then it becomes a no play.

Kansas City looks like a definite play tomorrow, unless two of the solid baseball cappers in the Den are on the other side. The list I will use includes: Osk, Craiger, BnB, Wabi, Spot On, Bonds, RD, ActionBrett and Player (although I haven't seen him post in a while). All of these cappers have different styles of capping and have proven to be successful over time.

Wrag-

Seattle is a favorite tomorrow so no play

Owings for Arizona does not have 40 innings so no play



Possible plays for tomorrow are KC and Philly

You can find innings pitched using Covers.com. I use their opening lines and Philly is at +109. This needs to move to +110 by tomorrow.


Overall record : 1-1 0 units

Series 1- WL

If Philly and KC become a play then I will play one of them in Series 1 and start another series for the other team.

Either way, the plays will be for one unit.



Sidenote: Bbaffert said to not use era's at 5 > for the underdog. I disagree with him. The record, although a small sample, seems to be consistent with the records of the <5 Eras.





I

Series 1- LW

If Pitt was the first game in the series and we lost one unit and Minn was the second game and we won one unit, wouldn't our bet tomorrow on KC ( assuming it's a play) be two units under Oscar's rule #5?

Zack

PHLI.+121
KC.+116
Both are plays but i HATE both. I have 24 MLB "rules". 5 of them, which is outstanding, say Clev. However 2 of them saty KC so i can't bet either.
"rules" are 1-1 on phil-fl so i don't know what i'll do.
GL whatever you decide.

If I'm figuring it right, KC & Phil are the dog system plays and I'm playing them both. I'll play KC as the 3rd game in the 1st series and increase the bet under Oscar's rule #5 to try to win one unit.

I'll play Phil as game one in a new series for one unit under Oscar's rule #2. I've got some question about whether ecarc's "two top cappers on the other side" filter would knock this play out but I don't see that it does so far so I'm on it.

Zack

Zac - It's one unit on KC because the objective is to win one unit. We don't want to bet any more than we have to. Once we win one unit we start a new series.


Wrag- Good luck on whatever you play.




Philly is a no play with Action and BnB on Florida

The only play is on KC for one unit

You're right. I see it now. The bet on KC should have been one unit because Oscar's rule #1 overrides rule #5.

It's comforting to see Craiger on KC with us.

Good luck!