The Leading Logic In Sports Handicapping |
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Micaiah2004
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Sep 2004
Posts: 2474
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Holiday Bowl: Texas A&M +5 v. California
Holiday Bowl, Qualcomm Stadium, San Diego, CA (Grass)
Thursday, Dec. 28
Another live dog play. Aggies 9-3 SU and 8-3 ATS while Cal 9-3 SU and 5-6 ATS. First of all, I confess a negative bias to Cal Bears. They appear to me to be a whining, crybaby, dilettante team albeit talented. They had their chance to whip USC but couldn’t do it. Their fans and student body at Berkeley are a bunch of crybabies akin to Minnesota fans….always whining. And notice both CA and MN are blue states. Got to get that off my chest. Its a RED state vs. BLUE state game.
Texas A&M is my kind of “blue collar team”. Aggies lost 3 games by combined total of 6 points!!!! They beat Texas as a visiting team. Aggies are also one of those “Cardiac Kids” in that 8 of 11 games were not decided until last final minute and 7 of 8 Big 12 contests were not decided until closing minutes. It is not just luck but a strong determination that is part of this team’s makeup.
Cal is more impressive with their offense (more passing than running) than defense. But Aggies are a strong running team with a bruising 270 # running back (is this another Nasty Nate Ilaoa???). Aggies are very good at ball control and has the 3rd highest time of possession in NCAA at 33.29 vs. No. 1 Wisconsin 33.45 and No. 2 Michigan 33.44. This ball control will help them keep Cal offense on sidelines. Aggies also good at 25 rushing TD in the red zone which leads Big12 Conf. Their running back is 4th in rushing TD tied with Ray Rice of Rutgers. Their O-line has double tight ends w/pass catching ability. And their QB I feel is better than Cal’s Nate Longshoreman (sorry, had to mess w/that surname). QB McGee can both run and throw which makes him the greater threat at QB than the classic drop back passer Longshoreman.
If Texas A&M can demonstrate ability to run against this Cal D (which is stronger against the run), then combined with Texas A&M's ability to pass against the porous Cal secondary may result in a decisive victory rather than a slight upset.
Cal will have to be able to run in order to pass deep. But teams that have stopped them have taken away the deep pass and contained the run. Leaving Cal with short passes and without the big play. Their run attack suffered setback because their blocking runner sustained a broken arm in practice and doesn’t appear he will play.
Some additional facts compliments of Marc Lawrence College Bowl Stat Report:
Cal 3-9-1 ATS L13 games vs. fellow bowlers. Holiday Bowl favs are 0-8 ATS.
Dog in Aggie/Pac10 games is 5-0 ATS. Dog in Aggies Bowl games is 11-4 ATS. 7-3 ATS as bowl dogs. 5-1 ATS vs. fellow bowlers this season.
The overachiever is clearly Aggies and in fact, the better, tougher team may be the Aggies. Franchione has more experience than Telford. Franchione’s record 180-95-2. He is the 6th winningest active coach in NCAA football.
Hope the above info helps. Any other opinions welcomed. GL and a prosperous New Year to all.
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12-27-06 05:08 AM |
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