This is the system from last weekend that went 11-2 based on line value (12-1 SU) and 12-4 overall (14-2 SU)

Overall-Higher better
Car 4.9
Cinci 5.9
Dall/KC EVEN
Den 12.6
Det 3.4
Indi 8.7
STL .2
NE 2.8
NYG 10
Oak 5.8
Chi 6.3
SD 7.5
Sea 13.3
Tenn 2
Wash 4.8
ATL 9.7

Based on line value and in order of stregth
Det-Dog
Chi-Dog
(didn't have any dogs last weekend...not sure how they will respond. The closest thing to a 'dog' last week was Den -1 and they lost, but my theory is that they are the best value)
Oak
NYG
Wash
Indi
ATL
NE
Den
Car
Sea
SD
Cin


No plays on this system are Dall/KC Tenn/Hou and Stl/Min as the value isn't there. Also Tenn has too large of a line put in as a value, but my lean would be that way. Lastly Oaks value is based on offense but they might not be starting Collins at QB, but the Jets are just bad.


In case you didn't see last weeks post, heres the thread
http://www.statfox.com/forum/ showthread~s~fd735769c83a0b905131721f964
3cec7~threadid~33692.php

Didn't post RPI plays from last week untill after the last game on sunday but they were 14-2 ATS. I thought I post them for this week based on a 6 game rolling avg. Not in order of stregth. (this was already posted in my last thread RPI, but I wanted to put it together with this sundays plays)

Car
NE
Minn
Chi-Dog
Oak
Indi
Hou-Dog
Cinci
Zona-Dog
NYG
Sea
SD
Den
KC-Dog
Det-Dog
Atl

Thanks for all the work you put in. I don't have as much time to handicap as I used to, so it helps to have some legitimate picks like yours to refer to.

CAR
NE
DET-DOG
CIN
DEN
INDI
NYG
CHI-DOG
OAK
SEA
SD
ATL

Leans on Noplays
KC-although could be a letdown, but I like KC with L Johnson over Holmes
Tenn
Wash
Minn

One last thing....This trend is 7-1 ATS last two weeks
Any team after losing two in a row as a FAV is 22-5 ATS
That would be Dall, GB, and Pitt.
That trend conflicts two plays and one lean.
Good luck this Sunday

your 1st post had a couple games off much with my calculation according to your formula. The rest are pretty close

The numbers that I had in these 2 ...

MIA -7.8 vs SDG +6.3 = SDG 14.1 (u have SDG as 7 something)

DET -3.6 vs GB -1.0 = GB 2.6 (u have DET as pick)

your right on GB. They would be the pick. Good Call

On SD
Mia Off 15.6-17.8=-2.2
Mia D 15-16=-1
On Deff numbers turn - to + (or + to -)
so -2.2 +1=-1.2

SD Off 17.7-12.1=5.6
SD D 15.6-16.3=-.7
On Deff numbers turn - to + (or + to -)
so 5.6 +.7=6.3

Diff in 6.3 and -1.2
Or 6.3 -(-1.2) is 7.5

Either Way SD is still a play

Maybe I'm missing something as it is late, and I'm tired, but I don't think so.
Thanks for the help on GB

Your are right on Miami -1.2 .... my bad on maybe pressed wrong key(s) or forgot to convert + to -, - to +.

It is kind of scary on "FIVE" DOBLE-DIGIT Favs.

Will these favs cover? Last week all THREE covered. Repeat or Reverse this week is a BIG QUESTION.

My opinion is this....
The statfox contest=Joe Public
Look how many people went 7-0.
I went 5-2 and finished 45th with 21 points. Two weeks ago I went 5-2 with 19 points and took 21st. There were 15 more people in two weeks ago.
The lines will have to be inflated because there's too much $$$ on the sides of Favs. Vegas and the books have to be taking it in the shorts.
Will good teams continue to play well, I think so.

You say the higher the # the better. Is the formula used for betting on the spread, or is it mainly for straight up or money line bets? Thanks for the help. Newbie on this forum.

WOW

ATS

Just assusme everything posted on statfox is ATS unless otherwise posted.

Are you sure you are not an undercover bookie calling picks the wrong way so you can get paid? That would not be a nice thing to do especially so close to christmas and all. Like I said I am new to this forum but I think that I have found a permanent home. Thanks for the help.

I posted a system that went 12-4 ATS and 11-2 ats with the filter.....
I must be one stupid bookie. Check out my thread about the system. The logic makes sense.
Teams with better yards per play, and less yards per point should beat those teams with lower yards per play and higher yards per point. Basically I found a way to compare whose efficient to those that aren't.
Hope it stay good. I really like to cap based on stats.