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MTPaid
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Sep 2004
Posts: 2583

What a brutal night following the stars.

Play On - Home Favorites of -200 or higher against the money line (PHILADELPHIA) - after a close loss by 1 goal in their previous game against opponent after playing a game where 7 or more total goals were scored.
(52-6 over the last 5 seasons.) (89.7%, +41.3 units. Rating = 5*)

Play Against - Road teams against the money line (ATLANTA) - after a home game where both teams score 3 or more goals against opponent off a close home loss by 1 goal.
(26-4 over the last 5 seasons.) (86.7%, +26 units. Rating = 5*)

Up by 2 goals with 2 minutes to go in the game and lose in OT.

NHL teams that have more 5 or 6 star super situations favoring them are now 3-5 on the moneyline for -5.2 units. Thank god I am only playing these small, but it's starting to look like a good fade.

Incidently, 4 star teams are 12-9 for +2.1 units with 3 pending tonight (Columbus, Chicago, and Colorado) counting totals situations. Trying to find if there is something profitable here either playing straight or chasing. Doesn't seem to be much so far.

Play Under - All teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (MIAMI) - in a game involving two good excellent shooting teams (>=47%).
(32-2 since 1996.) (94.1%, +29.8 units. Rating = 6*)

Lost by 1/2 point.

NBA 4 star super situations this year are 3-0 ATS counting Clevleand's win tonight. This might be something worth tracking.

NBA 6 star plays were both totals and are now 1-1. It was the same SS both times.

Old Post 11-19-05 04:30 AM
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dvp95
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Registered: Aug 2005
Posts: 2358

Welcome to my world--full of getting robbed, jacked, headaches, and lots of cursing!

Old Post 11-19-05 04:39 AM
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MTPaid
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Registered: Sep 2004
Posts: 2583

Just went to Party Poker and took some money from the weekend warriors on the low No Limit tables. Always makes me feel a little better. Can't beat the low Limit games there, but the low No Limit games I've been running over routinely.

Old Post 11-19-05 05:15 AM
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MTPaid
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Just to follow up, the 3 pending NHL 4 star plays went 2-1 +2.1 units to make a total for the year of 14-10 +4.2 units.

Old Post 11-19-05 07:15 AM
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MTPaid
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I've decided to keep tracking these.

Tonight NHL teams with more 4 star super situations went 3-6 -4.95 units for 17-16 -.75 units on the year.

Tonight 4 teams had more 5 star super situations and in each case it was the same situation, 35-6 over 5 seasons at 85.4%. There was 1 game where each team had 1 5 star situation. Unfortunately I couldn't resist playing it and it went 1-3 -5 units with some heavy favorites including Detroit at -420. For the year now teams with more 5 or 6 stars are 4-8 -10.2 units.

There were no NBA 4 stars or higher today so they remain the same.
NBA 4 star super situations this year are 3-0 ATS

NBA 6 star plays were both totals and are now 1-1. It was the same SS both times. It could be 2-2 because it was a double situation on each team in the same game to go Under on each game.

Gonna keep tracking these for a while to see if anything develops, but the high % NHL plays are just sad right now.

Old Post 11-20-05 08:16 AM
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MTPaid
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One NHL team with more 4*SS and the NYR won bringing the yearly total to 17-17 +.25 units.

Both the NYR and Phe had more 6*SS and both won brining the total of teams with more 5+*SS to 6-8 -8.2 units

There were 2 NBA 4*SS today and both were totals. LAC Over hit easily and both Sac and Sea had identical 4*SS Under which lost making it 1-1 on the day.

NBA 4 star super situations this year are 4-1 ATS

NBA 6 star plays were both totals and are 1-1. It was the same SS both times. It could be 2-2 because it was a double situation on each team in the same game to go Under on each game.

I'll keep tracking these for the time being.

Old Post 11-21-05 05:21 AM
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MTPaid
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One NHL 4* star tonight. Same as the NHL Chase game tonight. Colorado lost in Shootout. Seems like every NHL game I see is decided by a random shootout. 0-1 -1.3 units for the night.

Year:
17-18 -1.05 units.

5+*SS to 6-8 -8.2 units

NBA 4 star super situations 4-1 ATS

NBA 6 star plays were both totals and are 1-1. It was the same SS both times. It could be 2-2 because it was a double situation on each team in the same game to go Under on each game.

Old Post 11-22-05 05:52 AM
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MTPaid
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4*'s tonight are 4-2 +2.2 units

Year:
21-20 +1.15 units.

Still 2 5*'s and even a 6* and and the 1st 7* of the year on Pheonix pending.

No NBA 4*s today.

NBA 4 star super situations 4-1 ATS

NBA 6 star plays were both totals and are 1-1.

Old Post 11-23-05 05:19 AM
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dvp95
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Thanks for keeping track of this info. Appreciate it.

Old Post 11-23-05 05:19 AM
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MTPaid
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NHL

5*s tonight 2-2 -.3 units
6* and 7* on Phe 0-2 -3.2 units

Year:
5+*SS to 8-12 -11.7 units

Old Post 11-23-05 06:29 AM
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bigdadi
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Registered: Apr 2003
Posts: 8931

How about change the stats to COUNT # OF ROWS regardless of star(s) or no star(s)?

Old Post 11-23-05 08:54 AM
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MTPaid
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What do you mean by ROWS?

Old Post 11-23-05 06:03 PM
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bigdadi
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Registered: Apr 2003
Posts: 8931

Example on rows

On today CFB
N ILL is 5-0, 3-0, 3-1 on S.Situations, Matchup Pwr Trend, Situation Pwr Trends.

Old Post 11-24-05 03:45 AM
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MTPaid
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Oh, sorry Bid Dadi. I'm only tracking Super Situations (Moneyline and ATS) where one team has more 4* or higher than the other.

Tonight, no NBA again.

NHL
Tonight:
More 4*'s 2-4 -2.9 units
More 5+*'s 1-1 -.8 units

Year:
More 4*'s 23-24 -1.75 units
More 5+*SS 9-13 -12.5 units

NBA 4 star super situations 4-1 ATS

NBA 6 star plays were both totals and are 1-1.

Old Post 11-24-05 05:29 AM
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bigdadi
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What I am saying is, in where the stars are not working now, why not take a look in rows, no matter it is SS only or add on other situation/trend. Maybe you can find something co-relating to W on the areas that showing minus units.

Old Post 11-24-05 07:13 PM
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MTPaid
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Ok, that's true Big Dadi. Problem is, I haven't been following the other trends since the beginning of the season so the records could be way off. Don't have time to back-track either. I do see today that there is a 4* PT favoring the Islanders today. If I don't find anything soon I'm going to stop this experiment anyway.

NHL
Last night:
More 4*'s NHL 1-0 +1 unit
No 5+*'s

Year:
More 4*'s 24-24 -.75 units
More 5+*SS 9-13 -12.5 units

NBA 4 star super situations 4-1 ATS

NBA 6 star plays were both totals and are 1-1.

Old Post 11-25-05 05:24 PM
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Nick
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Registered: Jan 2003
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bigdadi

I did what you call row counting for MLB a few years ago (before the stars were added to the sheets. I played all games and all totals daily. Ended up with +50 units per month consistantly, but I had my entire bankroll in play daily.

Old Post 11-25-05 09:42 PM
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MTPaid
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Registered: Sep 2004
Posts: 2583

NHL
Tonight:
More 4*'s NHL 4-3 +9 unit
No 5+*'s

Year:
More 4*'s 28-27 +.15 units
More 5+*SS 9-13 -12.5 units

NBA 4 star super situations 4-1 ATS

NBA 6 star plays were both totals and are 1-1

Old Post 11-26-05 06:46 AM
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MTPaid
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Little late updating. Slept in today. Strange situation last night where Columbus had 3 4*'s and St. Louis had 1 5*. Great night for the 4*'s in NHL. 5*'s continue to stink in NHL.

NHL
Last night:
More 4*'s 4-1 +3.55 units
More 5*'s 0-1 -1.6 units

Year:
More 4*'s 32-28 +3.7 units
More 5+*SS 9-14 -14.1 units

NBA 4*'s today on Atlanta and Under split
NBA 4 star super situations 5-2 ATS

NBA 5* today on Atlanta lost
NBA 5+*'s are 1-2

Old Post 11-27-05 10:38 PM
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bigdadi
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Posts: 8931

The row counting keeps me away to play on some "L" big fav on the NHL. That is money.

Old Post 11-27-05 10:47 PM
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