South Alabama @ Appalachian State (-7.5)
South Alabama (1-2)
USA lost its first two I-A games, 52-38/27-20.
Jaguars allowed 550/404 TY in the two losses.
Jaguars pounded on a I-AA team LW, 87-10.
USA has 4 starters back on offense, 3 on defense.
Jaguars have 21 returning starts on the offensive line.
Frosh QB Lopez has thrown for 689 yards (7 TD’s, no INT’s).

Last three years, USA is 3-6 ATS as a road underdog.
Last four years, South Alabama is 14-18 ATS in Sun Belt games.
New coach Applewhite was 15-11 in two years at Houston (’17-’18)
South Alabama is 8-13 ATS in last 21 games coming off a win.

Appalachian State (2-1)
App State threw for 424 yards in LW’s 21-19 win at East Carolina.
App State lost its other I-A game 66-20 at Clemson.
App State has 5 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
App State has 15 returning starts on the offensive line.
Senior QB Aguilar started 13 games last year.

Under Clark, App State is 9-15 ATS as a home favorite.
Under Clark, App State is 12-26-1 ATS as a favorite.
Under Clark, App State is 13-20-1 ATS in Sun Belt games.
Under Clark, App State is 13-17-2 ATS coming off a win.

Teams haven’t met since 2021.
App State won last four series games (2-2 ATS)
App State won last three meetings, 113-17.
Over is 3-2 in last five series games.

Potential fireworks are in the forecast for Thursday night, as the South Alabama Jaguars and Appalachian State Mountaineers get together in picturesque Boone, North Carolina to get Week 4 underway. Early betting action has pushed the total on this game towards the mid-60s, as the Sun Belt may truly transform into the Fun Belt in this matchup.

South Alabama is one up and two down to begin the season, with the win coming in last week’s 87-10 romp over Northwestern State. I promise that the “87” is not a typo. The Jags went 24-28-28 over the first three quarters and racked up 620 yards on the Demons, who are 0-3, including a 62-28 loss to Tulsa to open the season.

App State is two up and one down, with a 66-10 loss to Clemson on the ledger. The Week 1 win over East Tennessee State wasn’t much to write home about, but a gritty win in Greenville over East Carolina by a 21-19 count was a nice victory for Shawn Clark’s crew. The 21-point output is a bit misleading, as App State had 515 yards of offense, including 424 from Joey Aguilar in the passing game.

The Mountaineers threw a pick-six and had a red-zone fumble, so there were some self-inflicted wounds, but they did erase a 16-0 deficit after the first quarter. For a team that I really liked to win the Sun Belt as the favorite, I’ve been a bit underwhelmed, but they have a good chance to start 1-0 in league play.

Through two games, the Mountaineers have 5.7 yards per play against FBS foes, while the Jaguars have 6.3. However, App State was no match whatsoever for Clemson, easily the best opponent between the two teams, as South Alabama lost to Ohio and North Texas to begin the season.

App State gave up 9.8 YPP to Clemson and still allowed 5.6 YPP to ECU last week. The Jags have given up 6.6 YPP in their two FBS games, including over 7.2 to North Texas. That’s how you get a total that has been moving up like this one has.

I have to say that it is very concerning that App State is running for just 4.3 yards per carry on the season and only had 2.7 YPC against East Carolina. Aguilar is tracking towards the best QB numbers in program history, but this is still a team that wants to have offensive balance and they don’t right now.

South Alabama is a team I wanted to fade entering the season. Former head coach Kane Wommack is now calling defensive plays in Tuscaloosa and former defensive coordinator Corey Batoon is the DC at Missouri.

With that, let’s look at the total. I like the Over 64 like seemingly everybody else. I think App State knows their running game isn’t up to par, so this is Aguilar’s show. Also, Gio Lopez for South Alabama has a 7/0 TD/INT ratio and threw for 432 yards against North Texas.

These defenses have combined to allow 82 plays of 10+ yards, 25 plays of 20+ yards, and 13 plays of 30+ yards. Explosive plays should be frequent on Thursday night.

Kicking off this week’s action in college football, the Appalachian State Mountaineers (2-1) and South Alabama Jaguars (1-2) meet on Thursday, Sept. 19, to open up Sun Belt Conference play. The game kicks off at 7:30 p.m. ET and will be broadcast on ESPN.

The Mountaineers used an impressive comeback at East Carolina in Week 3 to move to 2-1 on the season. Meanwhile, the Jaguars picked up their first win of the year in a dominant effort over Northwestern State last weekend.

App State comes into this game as a 7-point favorite, while the over/under sits at 63.5.

It was an interesting offseason for South Alabama. Former head coach Kane Wommack guided the program to two bowl games in his three seasons in Mobile but left to become the defensive coordinator at Alabama under Kalen DeBoer.

The Jaguars also lost their own defensive coordinator after Corey Batoon took the same position at Missouri.

How did South Alabama replace two coaches who made the jump to the Southeastern Conference? It decided to hire from within by elevating Major Applewhite to head coach after serving as offensive coordinator.

This will be Applewhite's second job as head coach after guiding Houston to back-to-back winning seasons in 2017 and 2018.

So far, Applewhite’s offense has not disappointed. The Jaguars’ 87 points against Northwestern State were the most in a single game in school history. It also set a new Sun Belt Conference record for single-game points, and it was the most points scored by an FBS team since 1991.

Plus, South Alabama accomplished all of this in a contest shortened due to weather.

If Applewhite can get his defense to match the offense, he should be able to get this season back on track.

After the disappointing loss at Clemson, Appalachian State bounced back last week thanks to a great comeback against East Carolina. Those are types of performances that have become the norm under head coach Shawn Clark.

In fact, the Mountaineers have made four conference championship game appearances in the last six seasons. The only other FBS schools to do so are Alabama, Boise State, Clemson, Georgia, Oregon and Utah.

Last year was another successful campaign for Clark’s squad, as it reached the Sun Belt Championship before falling to Troy. Luckily for Clark, he returns a lot of players from that team.

The Mountaineers rank 33rd nationally in returning production with 68% coming back from the 2023 squad. That includes star quarterback Joey Aguilar.

The Sun Belt Newcomer of the Year threw for a career-high 424 yards to help App State overcome a 16-0 deficit against the Pirates last week. He’ll need another huge performance here to start conference play with a win.

Teams making the trip to Boone have to defend the pass well if they want to leave with a victory. Based on what I’ve seen so far, I don't see South Alabama doing that.

This is a Jaguars defense that allowed 415 yards and three touchdowns through the air to North Texas in the opener. The secondary followed that up by allowing new Ohio quarterback Parker Navarro to complete 71% of his passes and throw for his season-high in terms of yardage.

Ultimately, I just don't trust this new-look South Alabama squad and staff to go on the road and keep up here.

This is a team that lost the program’s winningest quarterback, a 1,000-yard rusher, a 1,300-yard receiver and a pair of defensive masterminds on the coaching staff.

Meanwhile, everything flipped for App State down the stretch last year. It won five of its last six to make the conference title game, including a win over previously undefeated James Madison.

South Alabama at Appalachian State
Thursday, 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)

For as much as the stability plays are over for the season, South Alabama still has a lot of things to work out in terms of its new coaching/personnel for 2024. Totally discounting the useless 87-10 win last week versus Northwestern State, the Jaguars did not play well in their first two games, one of which was a conference game.

After beating a 36.5-point spread by 40.5 points last week, they are now a play-against according to this system we have used several times successfully already in 2024: Both college football teams coming off a game which was decided by a margin 38 points or more different from the final point spread, either win or lose, have struggled in the next contest, going just 130-175-1 ATS (42.6%) over the last decade-plus.

South Alabama is also just 15-34 ATS coming off a win since 2014. Meanwhile, Appalachian State opens Sun Belt play here and should be a top contender again this season. QB Joey Aguilar has looked sharp so far with 964 yards passing and should be able to carve up the Jaguars’ defense. The Mountaineers have beaten USA 83-14 in the last two times hosting in head-to-head play.