Oklahoma is a 7.5-point home underdog vs. Tennessee this Saturday.

OKLA was last a home dog back in 2016 vs. Ohio State -- J.T. Barrett, OSU beat Baker Mayfield and the Sooners 45-24 as 1.5-pt dogs.

Sooners haven't closed above +7 at home since 1997 vs. Texas A&M.

Florida (-6) @ Mississippi State
Florida (1-2, 0-1)
Florida lost its two I-A games, 41-17/33-20.
Last three years, Gators were 6-7/6-7/5-7.
Florida has 8 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
Gators have 80 returning starts on the offensive line.
Senior QB Mertz/frosh QB Lagway are splitting time.

Last four years, Florida is 1-9 ATS as a road favorite.
Last 3+ years, Florida is 14-25-1 ATS overall.
In his career, Napier is 19-24-1 ATS as favorite, 7-7 on road.
Under Napier, Florida is 8-9 ATS in SEC games.
In its two I-A games, Gators gave up 529/488 total yards.

Mississippi State (1-2)
Miss State lost first two I-A games, 30-23/41-17.
Miss State was outrushed 515-90 in those two games.
Bulldogs have 5 starters back on offense, 5 on defense.
Bulldogs have 67 returning starts on the offensive line.
Senior QB Shapen started 23 games at Baylor.

Since 2019, MSU is 1-10-1 ATS as a home underdog.
MSU is 4-11-1 ATS in its last sixteen SEC games.
Bulldogs are 2-8-1 ATS in last 11 games coming off a loss.
Jeff Lebby is Miss State’s 5th head coach the last eight seasons.
Lebby was offensive coordinator at Oklahoma the last 2 years.

Teams haven’t met since 2018.
Florida won three of last four series games.
Underdogs covered last five meetings.
Last three series games stayed under the total.

Houston @ Cincinnati (-3.5)
Houston (1-2)
Houston was held to 7-12 points in losses to UNLV/Oklahoma.
Cougars whacked crosstown rival Rice 33-7 last week.
Houston has 5 starters back on offense, 5 on defense.
Cougars have 118 returning starts on OL, only 30 of them at Houston.
Senior QB Smith has 20 career starts.

Houston is 10-6-1 ATS in last 17 games as a road underdog.
Houston is 6-10-1 ATS in its last 17 conference games.
In his career, Fritz is 23-20-1 ATS as an underdog
Cougars are 9-15 ATS in last 24 games coming off a win.

Cincinnati (2-1)
Cincinnati lost 28-27 at home to Pitt, won 27-16 at Miami OH
Bearcats were 3-9 LY, their first losing season since 2017.
Bearcats have 8 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
Bearcats have 91 returning starts on offensive line.
Soph QB Sorsby started 7 games at Indiana last year.

Last 2+ years, Cincinnati is 5-11 ATS as a favorite.
Last 2+ years, Cincinnati is 3-7 ATS as a home favorite.
Last two years, Cincinnati was 3-13-1 ATS in conference games.
In his career, Satterfield is 24-25-1 ATS as a home favorite.
Last two weeks, Bearcats gave up 302/356 passing yards.

Cincinnati won/covered last four meetings.
Cougars are 1-5-1 ATS in last seven visits to Cincinnati
Under is 4-2 in last six series games.

Kansas @ West Virginia (-2.5)
Kansas (1-2)
Kansas lost its two I-A games, 23-17 at Illinois, 23-20 to UNLV.
Kansas outgained those opponents by 56-85 yards, were minus-3 in TO’s.
Jayhawks have 7 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
Kansas has 130 returning starts on offensive line.
Junior QB Daniels has 20 career starts.

In his career, Leipold is 11-19-1 ATS as road underdog.
Under Leipold, Kansas is 5-9 ATS as a road underdog.
Under Leipold, Kansas is 13-13-1 ATS in Big X games.
Under Leipold, Kansas is 9-11 ATS coming off a loss.

West Virginia (1-2)
WVU lost its two I-A games, 34-12 to Penn State, 38-34 at Pitt.
Two weeks ago, WVU gave up 306 PY to a I-AA team.
Mountaineers have 8 starters back on offense, 5 on defense.
Mountaineers have 113 returning starts on offensive line.
Senior QB Greene has 14 career starts.

Since 2020, WVU is 11-4 ATS as a home favorite.
In his career, Brown is 20-16-1 ATS as a home favorite.
Under Brown, WVU is 20-24 ATS in Big X games.
Under Brown, Mountaineers are 17-11 ATS in games coming off a loss.
West Virginia is minus-5 turnovers in its first three games.

West Virginia won eight of last nine series games.
Kansas covered its last five visits to Morgantown.
Over is 6-1 in last seven meetings.

USC (-5.5) @ Michigan
USC (2-0)
In first two games, Trojans beat LSU 27-20, Utah State 48-0.
USC gained 447/544 yards in those games.
USC has 5 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
Trojans have 72 returning starts on the offensive line.
Junior QB Moss won his only start 42-28 LY (bowl game).

In his career, Riley is 8-17-1 as a road favorite, 2-6 at USC.
Trojans are 9-19 ATS in last 28 conference games.
In his career, Riley is 31-35-1 ATS in conference games.
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USC outgained LSU 447-421 in their 27-20 win in Las Vegas.
This is USC’s first Big 18 conference game.

Michigan (2-1)
Michigan is switching QB’s this week; junior QB Orji gets the nod
Wolverines were minus-5 in turnovers the last two weeks.
Wolverines have 2 starters back on offense, 5 on defense, a new head coach.
New defensive coordinator Martindale has a significant NFL resume.
Michigan has 53 returning starts on offensive line (none at Michigan).

Last 3+ years, Michigan is 3-1 ATS as an underdog.
Wolverines were held to 269-284 yards by Fresno/Texas.
Michigan ran for 301 yards LW but only beat Arkansas State 28-18.
Michigan is 19-8-3 ATS in its last 30 conference games.
Last 3+ years, Michigan is 21-14-3 ATS coming off a win.

These teams haven’t met since a bowl game 18 years ago.

Arkansas @ Auburn (-3)
Arkansas (2-1)
Arkansas lost 39-31 at Oklahoma State, beat UAB 37-27 LW.
Razorbacks ran ball for 232/266 yards in those two games.
Razorbacks have 9 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Razorbacks have 67 returning starts on the offensive line;
Junior QB Green started 22 games at Boise State.

Under Pittman, Arkansas is 17-7 ATS as an underdog.
Arkansas is 10-3 ATS in last 13 games as a road underdog.
Under Pittman, Arkansas is 19-13-2 ATS in SEC games.
Last 2+ years, Razorbacks are 3-7-1 ATS coming off a win.

Auburn (2-1)
Auburn lost 21-14 to Cal, beat New Mexico 45-19 in its I-A games.
Auburn has had three straight losing years (6-7/5-7/5-7).
Tigers have 9 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Tigers have 87 returning starts on the offensive line.
Frosh QB Brown was 17-25/235 passing in his first start LW.

Since 2019, Auburn is 13-9 ATS as a home favorite.
In his career, Freeze is 33-24-1 ATS as a home favorite.
In his career, Freeze is 44-29-1 ATS in home games.
Auburn is 23-18-1 ATS in its last 42 SEC games.

Auburn won seven of last eight meetings.
Razorbacks are 5-4 ATS in last nine visits to Auburn.
Over is 9-1 in last ten series games.

Arizona State @ Texas Tech (-3)
Arizona State (3-0)
Sun Devils scored 48-30-31 points in its 3-0 SU/ATS start/
Sun Devils are +6 in turnovers, have run ball for 229.3 yards/game.
ASU has 6 starters back on offense, 4 on defense.
Sun Devils have 57 returning starts on the offensive line.
Frosh QB Leavitt is 43-72/573 passing this year, and has also run for 155 yards.

Since 2017, ASU is 15-6-1 ATS as a road underdog.
ASU outgained first three opponents by 150 yards/game.
This is Sun Devils’ first-ever Big X game.
Arizona State is 18-13 ATS in last 31 conference games.

Texas Tech (2-1)
Texas Tech lost 37-16 at Wazzu, beat North Texas 66-21.
Last three years, Tech was 7-6/8-5/7-6.
Red Raiders have 8 starters back on offense, 5 on defense.
Red Raiders have 125 returning starts on the offensive line.
Junior QB Morton started 12 games LY (10 TDs/2 INTs this year)

Under McGuire, Texas Tech is 9-5 ATS in home games.
Under McGuire, Red Raiders are 6-4 ATS as a home favorite.
Tech is throwing ball for 358.3 yards/game.
Tech is 29-34 ATS in its last 63 Big X games.
Texas Tech gave up 506 PY to a I-AA team in its opener.

These teams haven’t met since 2017.

Utah (-1) @ Oklahoma State
Utah (3-0, 1-0)
Utah beat Baylor 23-12, Utah State 38-21 in its I-A games.
Utes have 6 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
Utah has 60 returning starts on offensive line.
Senior QB Rising (knee) DNP LY; he’s got 23 career starts.

Under Whittingham, Utah is 80-72-3 ATS as favorite.
Under Whittingham, Utah is 28-31-1 ATS as a road favorite.
Utes are 6-11 ATS in its last 17 road games.
Since 2016, Utes are 45-26 ATS in conference games.

Oklahoma State (3-0)
OSU scored 39-45 points in its two I-A wins.
Cowboys passed for 326/431 yards in those games.
Cowboys have 10 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
Cowboys have 214 returning starts on offensive line.
Senior QB Bowman is in his 7th college season (13 starts LY)

Under Gundy, OSU is 66-47-5 ATS at home.
Since 2016, Cowboys are 8-1 ATS as a home underdog.
Since 2021, Cowboys are 19-10 ATS coming off a win
Oklahoma State is 18-10 ATS in its last 28 Big X games.

These teams haven’t met in this century.

TCU (-3) @ SMU
TCU (2-1)
TCU blew a 28-7 lead LW, in a 35-34 home loss to Central Florida.
UCF ran ball for 289 yards, outgained TCU 519-460.
TCU has 7 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
Horned Frogs have 77 returning starts on the offensive line.
Soph QB Hoover started six games last year.

TCU won its only road game, 34-27 (-7.5) at Stanford.
Under Dykes, TCU is 11-8-1 ATS as a favorite.
In his career, Dykes is 13-18-1 ATS as road favorite.
Horned Frogs are 7-3-1 ATS in last 11 games as a road favorite.
In its two I-A games, TCU threw ball for 353/402 yards.

SMU (2-1)
SMU won 29-24 at Nevada, lost 18-15 to BYU in its I-A games.
This is a non-league game but a local rivalry.
Mustangs have 8 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
Mustangs have 120 returning starts on the offensive line.
Soph QB Jennings started twice LY.

Under Lashlee, SMU is 2-6 ATS as an underdog.
Since 2017, Mustangs are 5-3 ATS as a home underdog.
Under Lashlee, SMU is 2-5 ATS coming off a loss.
Mustangs kicked five FG”s, didn’t score TD in LW’s loss.

TCU won nine of last eleven series games.
Horned Frogs won/covered their last four visits to SMU.
Over is 11-4 in last fifteen meetings.

Tennessee (-7) @ Oklahoma
Tennessee (3-0)
Tennessee won 51-10/71-0 in its first two I-A games.
Last 2+ years, Vols are 23-6 SU/19-9 ATS
Tennessee has 6 starters back on offense, 5 on defense.
Vols have 112 returning starts on the offensive line;
Frosh QB Iamaleava had one start, was MVP of Citrus Bowl.

Under Heupel, Tennessee is 18-8 ATS as a favorite.
Under Heupel, Tennessee is 15-12 ATS in games coming off a win.
Under Heupel, Tennessee is 11-13 ATS in SEC games.
Vols outgained their first two I-A foes, 1,200-255.
Heupel played QB at Oklahoma, was later their OC.

Oklahoma (3-0)
Oklahoma won first three games, 51-3/16-12/34-19.
Since 2015, Sooners are 97-24 SU (19-10 under Venables)
Oklahoma has 7 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Sooners have 114 returning starts on the offensive line.
QB Gabriel bolted to Oregon; soph QB is 54-86/484 passing.

This is Oklahoma’s first-ever SEC game.
Under Venables, Oklahoma is 1-1 ATS as an underdog.
Under Venables, Sooners are 8-4 ATS at home.
Oklahoma is already +8 in turnovers this year.
Under Venables, Sooners are 7-10-1 ATS in conference games.

These teams haven’t met since 2015.

Iowa (-2.5) @ Minnesota
Iowa (2-1)
Iowa lost 20-19 to Iowa State, beat Troy 38-21 in its I-A games.
Iowa blew 13-0 halftime lead in the loss to the Cyclones.
Hawkeyes have 10 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Hawkeyes have 154 returning starts on offensive line.
Senior QB McNamara has 21 career starts.

Since 2020, Hawkeyes are 6-2 ATS as a road favorite.
In his career, Ferentz is 31-22-1 ATS as a road favorite.
Since 2015, Iowa is 44-31-2 ATS coming off a win.
Hawkeyes are 20-16-1 ATS in their last 37 conference games.

Minnesota (2-1)
Minnesota lost 19-17 to North Carolina, blanked Nevada 27-0.
Gophers were 6-7 last year, their worst season since 2017.
Gophers have 8 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Minnesota has 70 returning starts on the offensive line.
Senior QB Brosmer started 36 games at I-AA New Hampshire.

Under Fleck, Minnesota is 7-7-2 ATS as a home underdog.
In his career, Fleck is 9-12-2 ATS as a home underdog.
Under Fleck, Minnesota is 29-30-2 ATS in conference games.
Minnesota allowed only 252-172 TY in its I-A games.

Iowa is 8-1 SU/6-2-1 ATS in last nine meetings.
Hawkeyes covered their last four visits to the Twin Cities.
Under is 6-2 in last eight series games.

Baylor @ Colorado (-1.5)
Baylor (2-1)
Baylor lost 23-12 at Utah, beat Air Force 31-3 in its I-A games.
Bears held those teams to 292-218 TY
Baylor has 10 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
Bears have 97 returning starts on the offensive line.
Senior QB Finn started 32 games at Toledo.

Under Aranda, Baylor is 9-6 ATS as road underdogs.
Under Aranda, Bears are 13-10 ATS coming off a win.
Under Aranda, Baylor is 18-20 ATS in conference games.
Last 2+ years, Baylor is +1 in turnovers (+31 from 2019-21)

Colorado (2-1)
Colorado lost 28-10 at Nebraska, won 28-9 at Colorado State.
Sanders is 2-3 ATS as a favorite with Colorado.
Tigers have 8 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Tigers have 100 returning starts on offensive line, and a new OL coach.
QB Sanders started 11 games LY, after playing multiple years at I-AA Jackson State.

Since 2017, Colorado is 6-11 ATS as a home favorite.
Last two years, Buffs were 7-11 ATS in conference games.
Colorado is 1-5 ATS in last six games coming off a win.
In three games, Buffs ran ball 109 times for only 185 yards.

These teams haven’t met since 2010.

Kansas State (-6.5) @ BYU
Kansas State (3-0)
K-State beat Tulane 34-27, Arizona 31-7 in first two I-A games.
Wildcats ran ball for 215-235 yards in those games.
Wildcats have 4 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Wildcats have 73 returning starts on OL, only 36 at I-A level.
Frosh QB Johnson threw for 490 yards, ran for 187 more in three games.

Last 2+ years, K-State is 1-5 ATS as a road favorite.
Under Klieman, Wildcats are 21-12 ATS as a favorite.
Under Klieman, K-State is 31-16 ATS in Big X games.
Wildcats are 23-16 ATS in last 39 games coming off a win.

BYU (3-0)
BYU won 18-15 at SMU, 34-14 at Wyoming in its I-A games.
BYU was 5-7 LY, after five straight winning seasons.
Cougars have 8 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
Broncos have 88 starts returning on the offensive line.
Senior QB Bohanon started 19 games at Baylor/South Florida

This is BYU’s first Big X game.
Under Sitake, BYU is 7-6-1 ATS as a home underdog.
In his career, coach Sitake is 21-14-1 ATS as an underdog.
Last 2+ years, BYU is 6-8 ATS coming off a win.

These teams haven’t met in this century.

Purdue @ Oregon State (-4.5)
Purdue (1-0)
Purdue lost its only I-A game 66-7 to Notre Dame last week.
Purdue was outgained 578-162; Notre Dame ran for 362 yards.
Boilermakers have 8 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
Purdue has 165 returning starts on the offensive line.
Senior QB Card has 16 career starts.

Last 10+ years, Purdue is 25-10 ATS as a road underdog.
Last 2+ years, Boilers are 2-6 ATS in non-conference games.
Purdue was 4-8 last year, its 4th losing season in six years.
Purdue is 8-11 ATS in last 19 games coming off a loss.

Oregon State (2-1)
Last week, OSU got whacked 49-14 by rival Oregon.
Last two years, Beavers were 18-8 SU, but they’ve been gutted.
Oregon State has 4 starters back on offense, 1 on defense.
Beavers have 93 returning starts on OL, from various places.
Junior QB McCoy started 23 games at I-AA Idaho.

Last three years, Oregon State is 13-2 ATS as a home favorite.
Beavers are 14-7 ATS in last 21 non-league games.
Beavers are 2-5 ATS in last seven games coming off a loss.
Oregon State won 21-0 at San Diego State, in its other I-A game

Three years ago, Oregon State (+7) lost 30-21 at Purdue.

"It's one-way traffic on Tennessee, we've hardly written any Oklahoma bets."

84% of bets, 90% of $$ on Tenn -7.5 at FDSportsbook


86% of bets, 94% of $$ on Tenn -7 at DKSportsbook


82% of bets, 80% of $$ on Tenn -7 at FanaticsBook

Buffalo at #23 Northern Illinois (-14.5; 43.5)
Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET (ESPN+)

It has been two weeks since Northern Illinois pulled the most shocking upset of the season, winning at Notre Dame as a four-touchdown underdog.

Now the Huskies deal with a different set of expectations as they begin MAC play against Buffalo before traveling to NC State to face the Wolfpack perhaps without QB Grayson McCall.

NIU head coach Thomas Hammock was obviously full of emotion after his team earned the biggest win in program history.

Northern Illinois, a physical, defensive-oriented team that runs the ball, is typically better suited for an underdog role than a favorite role, as evidenced by Hammock’s 7-18 ATS (4-16 ATS vs FBS) record as a favorite.

Pete Lembo is back as a head coach in the MAC for the first time since 2015. During his five years at Ball State from 2011-2015, he went 13-9 ATS as a road underdog.

With a big number and a low total, plus the changed expectations, Northern Illinois should get more of a test than expected here.

Memphis (-10; 50.5) at Navy
Saturday, 3:30 p.m. (CBSSN)

Memphis is off to a 3-0 start and is right in the early mix for the G5 spot in the College Football Playoff. The Tigers are also off a win over Florida State (granted, they’re 0-3) with Ryan Silverfield beating his old boss and former Tigers head coach Mike Norvell, who left Memphis for Tallahassee.

This week, Memphis plays its second consecutive road game and American conference opener at Navy, who is off a bye week.

Most assuredly, the Tigers put all of their prep last week for Florida State and have a short time to get ready for Navy and the triple option with some new wrinkles from new offensive coordinator Drew Cronic.

Service academy underdogs are historically a good bet and are a bit over 60% ATS over the last decade.

Memphis could be a little sleepy early.

College Football Best Bet: Navy +6.5 1H/+10 Game

#8 Miami (FL) (-17; 65) at South Florida
Saturday, 7:00 p.m. ET (ESPN)

Miami is one of the early buzz teams of this college football season. They are off to a 3-0 start with a win over Florida and two easy blowouts over Florida A&M and Ball State.

Last year, the Hurricanes started 4-0 before an inexplicable loss to Georgia Tech derailed their season. That may not happen this year, especially in a down ACC, but Miami is starting to get priced to the moon here.

This is not historically a profitable role for Mario Cristobal as he is just 23-32 ATS (41.8%) as a favorite during his tenures both at Miami and Oregon.

South Florida covered a big number (+31) at Alabama two weeks ago in a 42-16 loss, but that final score was misleading as it was 14-13 to start the fourth quarter.

This is obviously a big one for the Bulls who have plenty of players from the Miami-Dade area and may have gotten overlooked or were backup plans in recruiting.

East Carolina at Liberty (-6; 54)
Saturday, 6:00 p.m. (ESPN+)

Liberty is one of the top choices to earn the G5 bid to College Football Playoff and they are off to a 3-0 start, but are 0-3 ATS.

Flames RB Quinton Cooley, a 1400-yard rusher last year, left last week’s game vs. UTEP with a back injury.

Mike Houston is 14-7 ATS as a road underdog at East Carolina.

Charlotte at Indiana (-29; 49)
Saturday, 12:00 p.m. (BTN)

Curt Cignetti and Indiana are off to a 3-0 start and made a big statement last Saturday night in the Rose Bowl dominating UCLA, 42-13.

There is actual optimism, something rare in Bloomington, for Indiana Football. They are about to start 4-0 before next week’s home conference opener vs. Maryland.

Charlotte barely got by FCS Gardner-Webb last week and the 49ers are playing their third-string QB Trexler Ivey (freshman DeShawn Purdie will start if healthy).

This just might be a bit of a sell-high spot at a big number on Indiana as this is a “get through it” game before they have bigger fish to fry in conference play.