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msudogs
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Registered: Nov 2005
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NFL Opening Odds Report

The NFL Week 3 schedule is light on marquee games, but there will be some very desperate 0-2 teams and some highly questionable 2-0 teams in action, which always makes for good theater on the odds screen.

Old Post 09-17-24 10:16 PM
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New England Patriots at New York Jets (-6.5, 39)
Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET (Amazon)

The Jets and Patriots drew the short straw for Week 3, as they’ll have the quick turnaround for the Thursday Night Football game on Amazon. Both teams come in with 1-1 records, which is not terribly surprising for the Jets, but remains a big surprise for the Patriots. It is a big number for the Jets, but there will be a lot of bettors willing to fade rookie head coach Jerod Mayo on the short week.

At least he has a veteran QB in Jacoby Brissett, who has played extremely well to this point, but Aaron Rodgers and the Jets have their home opener here and that’ll likely get this one to 7 market-wide before we settle in and see if there are some brave souls on New England. I think there will be.

Old Post 09-17-24 10:16 PM
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Los Angeles Chargers at Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5, 38)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)

The Chargers are 2-0 in the Jim Harbaugh era and have a chance at a lot of team bonding this week. LA did not go back to California after the win over Carolina, so don’t think about a bad travel spot impacting this game. There won’t be one. In fact, the travel spot may very well be worse for Pittsburgh, effectively losing Monday with the late arrival back at home after beating the Broncos.

The Steelers have scored just one offensive touchdown in two games and are 2-0. The betting market loves to fade teams in line for regression to the mean and we’ve got one here. That said, Justin Herbert was hobbled in Week 2. I still think we see people, especially recreational bettors, way more excited to back LAC.

Old Post 09-17-24 10:16 PM
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New York Giants at Cleveland Browns (-7, 39)
1 p.m. (FOX)

The stat sheet wasn’t terribly impressive for Deshaun Watson in Week 2, as he was 22-of-34 for 186 yards and got sacked twice. But, he looked better and that is a big reason why the Browns went to Duval County and knocked off the Jaguars. It’ll be interesting to see if bettors are eager to back the Browns at a big number or swallow a tough pill and back the Giants getting a touchdown.

New York just lost because Graham Gano was unavailable and, ironically, the Commanders kicked seven field goals in the 21-18 win. My guess here is that we’ll see some Giants interest early in the week, as bettors will view the Vikings loss in a better light after Minnesota upset San Francisco. The Giants also had six yards per play against Washington and probably deserved a better fate.

Old Post 09-17-24 10:18 PM
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Denver Broncos at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-7, 40)
1 p.m. ET (FOX)

This is a game where Sunday’s results influenced the oddsmakers’ opinions. Tampa Bay was -5.5 on the lookahead lines as of Wednesday, but Bo Nix struggled badly against the Steelers and the Buccaneers won at Detroit. Tampa Bay probably didn’t deserve to win, as the Lions went 1-for-7 in the red zone and outgained the Bucs by 247 yards. But, that’s how it goes sometimes.

This is also a pretty big number with a low total, so I’ll be curious to see how it sets up. It’s also worth noting that some of the sportsbooks that cater to sharper bettors, both in the U.S. and overseas, still had this 6.5 while DraftKings had it 7. Guess we’ll see if those so-called sharper bettors are interested in Denver at 7.

Old Post 09-17-24 10:18 PM
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Green Bay Packers at Tennessee Titans (-1.5, 37.5)
1 p.m. ET (FOX)

The Malik Willis Revenge Game! The Packers went on the road and beat the Colts with Willis at the helm instead of Jordan Love. Love was reportedly in the mix to play, but I don’t think anybody really believed that at any point. The Packers relied heavily on Josh Jacobs, who had 32 carries for 151 yards, but Willis was 12-of-14 for 122 yards and didn’t actively hurt the team in any way.

The Titans could very well be 2-0, but Will Levis has made some egregious decisions at the worst possible times. The rest of the roster looks like a 2-0 team to this point. We’ll get to deal with the “Will Jordan Love play?” saga throughout the week, but the line certainly implies he won’t be, otherwise GB would be favored here.

Old Post 09-17-24 10:18 PM
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