8:15 p.m. ET: Atlanta Falcons at Philadelphia Eagles (-5.5, 45.5)

The Falcons (0-1) lost their season opener to the Steelers 18-10, losing outright as 4-point home favorites. On the other hand, the Eagles (1-0) just took down the Packers in Brazil 34-29, covering as 2-point neutral site favorites.

This line opened with Philadelphia listed as a 4-point home favorite. The public is absolutely hammering Philadelphia, with 84% of spread bets laying the chalk with the Eagles at home. This lopsided support drove Philadelphia up from -4 to -6.5. However, we’ve seen some sharp buyback on the Falcons, dropping Atlanta back down from +6.5 to +5.5. This line move coincided with the news that the Eagles would be without star WR A.J. Brown, who will miss this game with a hamstring injury. The next move will be meaningful, as we are currently sitting in “no man’s land” with a spread of 5.5. Will the line tick back up to the key number of -6? Or will it continue to fall back toward Atlanta +5? Paying attention to gameday juice movement will be critical, as Eagles backers would be wise to grab Philadelphia at -5.5 or less while Falcons bettors will look to hold out for a +6.

The Falcons have notable contrarian value, receiving only 16% of spread bets in a heavily bet primetime game. Week 2 dogs have gone 9-5 ATS (64%) this week and are now 65-43 ATS (60%) with a 16% ROI since 2018. Primetime dogs are 122-95 ATS (56%) with an 8% ROI since 2020. Primetime road dogs are 87-57 ATS (58%) with an 11% ROI since 2020. Road dogs are 13-9 ATS (59%) so far this season and 516-434 ATS (54%) with a 5% ROI since 2018. Craig Wrolstad, the lead ref, is 85-68 ATS (56%) to the road team historically. Cousins started his career 1-15 straight up in primetime games but has since gone 6-2 straight up in primetime games since 2019. Those looking to go contrarian and follow the Falcons system matches could also entertain Atlanta in a teaser (+5.5 to +11.5), which passes through the key numbers of 7 and 10.

We’ve also seen sharp money hit the under, dropping the total from 48 to 45.5. This movement is notable because the public is still playing the over (56% of bets), yet the total fell. Primetime unders are 151-110 (60%) with a 15% ROI since 2019. When the total falls at least a point, the under is 271-209 (57%) with an 8% ROI since 2021. Wrolstad is 82-72 (53%) to the under historically. The forecast calls for high 60s with cloudy skies and mild 5-8 MPH winds at Lincoln Financial Field.

Bijan Robinson over 30.5 receiving yards (-110): Robinson caught five passes for 43 yards in the season opener against the Steelers. He was second on the team in targets with 5, trailing only Ray-Ray McCloud (7). Robinson has gone over this number in three of his last four games. The Falcons are also a dog in this game, which means they might be playing catch up. As a result, Robinson could be in play for extra garbage yards late as well as dump off passes throughout the game.