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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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Buccaneers @ Lions (-7.5)
Buccaneers (1-0)
Mayfield averaged 9.0 yards/pass attempt in LW’s 37-20 win vs Washington
Bucs were 9-13 on third down, Commanders 2-8.
Under Bowles, Tampa Bay is 7-3 ATS as a road underdog.
Last six years, Tampa Bay is 4-2 SU/ATS in road openers.
QB Mayfield is 43-48 as an NFL starter, 11-9 with Buccaneers.
Over is 10-6 in their last 16 road openers.
Last three years, under is 16-9 in Tampa Bay road games.
Lions (1-0)
LW, Lions tied game late, won home opener 26-20 in overtime.
Under Campbell, Lions are 10-4 ATS as a home favorite.
Last two years, Detroit is 13-6 ATS coming off a win.
Lions were 6-13 on 3rd down LW, but allowed 304 PY.
Goff is 27-24-1 as Detroit’s QB (was 44-30 with Rams)
Over is 12-6 in their last 18 home games.
Detroit (-6) beat Tampa Bay 31-23 in LY’s playoffs.
Lions won six of last nine series games.
Buccaneers are 4-2 SU/ATS in last six visits to Detroit.
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09-14-24 08:40 PM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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Chargers (-6.5) @ Panthers
Chargers (1-0)
Chargers ran for 176 yards in LW’s 22-10 home win over Las Vegas.
Last two years, Bolts were 5-3-2 ATS as a road favorite.
Since 2019, Bolts are 13-16-5 ATS coming off a win.
QB Herbert is 31-33 as an NFL starter.
Last 8 years, Chargers are 5-2-1 ATS in their road opener.
Since 2020, Chargers are 9-7-3 ATS vs AFC opponents.
Harbaugh was 49-22-1 as 49ers’ coach (2011-14).
Under is 4-1 in their last five road openers.
Panthers (0-1)
LW, Panthers gained only 193 TY in ugly 47-10 loss in New Orleans
Saints outrushed Carolina, 180-58.
Last three games, Carolina was outscored by a combined 82-10.
Since 2019, Carolina is 10-13-2 ATS as home underdog.
2nd year QB Young is 2-15 as an NFL starter.
Last 5 years, Carolina is 1-3-1ATS in home openers.
Since 1996, under is 18-9-1 in Panthers’ home openers.
Last three years, Carolina is 5-10 ATS vs AFC opponents.
Carolina won/covered last four series games.
Chargers are 1-2 SU/2-1 ATS in last three visits to Charlotte.
Under is 4-1 in last five meetings.
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09-14-24 08:42 PM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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Raiders @ Ravens (-9)
Raiders (0-1)
Raiders were minus-3 in turnovers, gained only 296 yards in LW’s 22-10 loss.
Raiders are 13-18-1 ATS in game following their last 32 losses.
QB Minshew is 15-23 as an NFL starter; Raiders are his 4th team.
Since 2019, Las Vegas is 19-12 ATS as a road underdog.
Raiders are 8-2-1 ATS in last 11 road openers.
Since start of 2020, Raiders are minus-32 in turnovers in 68 games.
Under is 17-9 in their last 26 road games, 5-2 in last seven road openers.
Ravens (1-0)
Ravens outgained KC 452-353 but lost opener 27-20 at Arrowhead.
QB Jackson threw for 273 yards, ran for 185 more,
Derrick Henry ran ball only 13 times, for 46 yards,
Since 2021, Ravens are 9-13 ATS as a home favorite.
QB Jackson is 60-24 as an NFL starter.
Since 2005, Ravens are 12-6 ATS in their home opener.
Last two years, under is 11-6 in Baltimore’s home games.
Ravens have a first-time defensive coordinator.
Last four years, Baltimore is 12-10 ATS coming off a loss.
Teams split their last six meetings.
Teams haven’t met since 2021.
Raiders are 1-4 SU/ATS in last five visits to Baltimore.
Last six series games went over the total.
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09-14-24 08:43 PM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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Los Angeles Chargers (-5.5; 39) at Carolina Panthers
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET (CBS)
Last week could not have gone any worse for Dave Canales, who is making his debut as Carolina head coach. The Panthers allowed the Saints to score on their first nine drives, totaling 47 points. Bryce Young still has a long way to go, only going 13-for-30 for 161 yards with two interceptions and a QBR of 12.3, plus he was sacked four times. On defense, Pro Bowl DT Derrick Brown is now out for the season with a knee injury. The Panthers’ situation cannot get any worse through Week 1, but it is just Week 1.
Jim Harbaugh won in his debut as Chargers head coach with a 22-10 victory over the Raiders, but the game was closer than the final score indicated. The Raiders went -3 in turnovers, and Antonio Pierce cost his team any chance at victory when he punted on 4th-and-1 at the Chargers 43 with just seven minutes left to play. Nevertheless, the Chargers looked relatively pedestrian on offense until the 61-yard run by J.K. Dobbins on the final drive that sealed the game.
This is a “hold your nose” and anything else you can hold onto play. Over the last 20 years, teams that lose by 35 or more and underdogs of 4 or more the following week are 50-18-2 ATS. The betting public could drive this back to 6, where I grabbed it, but these are the spots you have to be willing to back in Week 2 against the market overreactions.
NFL Week 2 Best Bet: Carolina Panthers +5.5
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09-15-24 01:25 PM |
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