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msudogs
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Southampton's search for their first Premier League points since promotion back to the top flight continues Saturday when they host a Manchester United side that lost consecutive games to stumble into the international break.
The Saints' start to the season feels a little similar to how Burnley began 2023-2024, playing at times proactive and possession-based football but with nothing to show for it. The Saints have considerably out-possessed all three of their opponents but have scored only once on their three league defeats, that goal coming in a 3-1 loss at Brentford heading into the break.
But they may feel United are vulnerable after the Red Devils have failed to look convincing through three games. The last was perhaps the most painful, a 3-0 defeat to a visiting Liverpool side that was well deserving of its victory.
The Saints are winless in the last 15 fixtures between these sides, a stretch that dates back to 2016, but they have drawn seven of those.
The Saints were the Premier League landing spot for Ben Brereton Diaz and Cameron Archer after both men proved themselves as competent if unspectacular Premier League scorers at Sheffield United last season.
Archer has only played 10 minutes after signing on a permanent transfer at the summer deadline from Aston Villa (who loaned him to the Blades last season). But he did strike for a brace in the Saints' 5-3 League Cup win over Cardiff City in his first start for his new club.
Less encouragingly, Brereton Diaz's considerable cool off at the end of his time in Sheffield has continued on the South Coast, where he is still awaiting his first goal.
Then there's Adam Armstrong, who has yet to prove he can turn sustained success in front of goal in the second tier into a respectable level of production in the top flight.
He's also still scoreless while leading Southampton with 0.8 expected goals' worth of chances so far. And he's scored at least 0.41 goals per 90 minutes in each of his previous three Championship seasons, against only 0.13 in both of his previous EPL campaigns.
The feel around Man United is one of a decided lack of composure. So far the Red Devils have generated nine chances with at least a 0.25 xG value across their three league games. Of those, the post-shot xG value has been equal or lower in all nine, and four of the last five weren't directed on target.
The silver lining is that it suggests the results have been a bit worse than the quality of the performances. And ten Hag could also be on the verge of a significant squad change after a rough start for Brazilian holding midfielder Casemiro.
The 32-year-old has had a rough start to the new campaign, and against Liverpool struggled so acutely he was taken off at halftime. Summer deadline signing Manuel Uguarte was signed to bolster that holding midfield role, and he could make his debut if he can overcome a mild illness and trans-Atlantic travel after featuring for Uruguay in World Cup Qualifying.
The 20-year-old Alejandro Garnacho — whose acrobatic volley against Everton last winter was the 2023-2024 Premier League goal of the season — has been his side's most threatening player, with 1.4 xG generated in just over 120 minutes. He's still awaiting his first goal of the new campaign, though he does have one of his side's two assists.
Given how both teams set up tactically, it's understandable that the betting market is favoring a higher goals total.
But while three goals or more is perhaps a likely outcome, it's a lot harder to envision the kind of match that leads to five or more goals, given that both teams still have a lot of questions and inconsistencies in attack right now.
So the value here might be on a goal-bands wager on 3-4 total goals at +140 and an implied 41.7% probability. That's a major improvement from the -170 number and 63% implied probability on the straight over bet, and worth the added risk.
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09-13-24 11:00 PM |
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msudogs
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Liverpool look to make it four straight wins to open their Premier League campaign when they host Nottingham Forest at Anfield.
The Reds have been the most impressive team so far this Premier League season as the Arne Slot appointment looks to be a slam dunk for Liverpool. They hammered Manchester United 3-0 at Old Trafford before the international break to be tied with Manchester City at the top of the table. They have an important Champions League match in Italy on Tuesday against AC Milan, so this is a very tricky spot for them against a good defensive team.
Nottingham Forest have had pretty good start to their Premier League season, picking up five points from their first three matches against Bournemouth, Southampton and Wolves. The Trees were one of the more underrated teams in the Premier League last year and have Liverpool a lot of trouble when they came to the City Ground. They also will be the best defensive team that Liverpool have seen so far this season.
Liverpool look a lot different under Arne Slot, but it’s for the better.
What Arne Slot wants more than anything is control and Liverpool are doing that better than anyone right now.
What has been so much better from Liverpool now as opposed to under Klopp is their ability to defend in transition. When Liverpool don’t have the ball they are pressing out of a 4-2-4, which is different from the 4-3-3 under Klopp. The front four are able to press to force teams into long balls with the two holding midfielders able to not allow teams to play through the middle covering the two holding midfielders. If you force teams into long balls up the pitch van Dijk and Konate are two of the best aerial duel winners in the Premier League.
The other big thing is when Liverpool lose the ball they aren’t counter-pressing with reckless abandon. They are always making sure they don’t get overloaded in transition and have at least five guys back to stop the opposing counterattack.
Their match against Brentford is a good example of what this match is going to look like. They beat Brentford 2-0 and exerted control over the entire match. The Bees were defending incredibly deep because it was their only chance of keeping Liverpool from creating high quality chances, but when they broke out in transition Liverpool always had numbers against them, which made it incredibly difficult to actually be dangerous on the counter.
Nottingham Forest are a similar team Brentford in that they are going to sit in a mid to low defensive block and look to transition from deep. However, they are likely going to have the same issues as the Bees did, as Liverpool are most likely always going to have a numerical advantage.
The Forest defense is much better than Brentford at this current stage, however. Through their first three matches they have allowed the lowest xG per shot in the Premier League and actually have allowed less expected goals than Liverpool have. It’s because they are incredibly effective sitting in their mid-block and denying space through the middle. They also do a fantastic job preventing teams from getting into their penalty area. Last season, they allowed the second-lowest final third to box entry conversion rate in the Premier League, which shows how effective their low block is. That has continued into this season because Forest are allowing the lowest xG per shot through three matches.
Nottingham Forest found it really hard to create chances against Liverpool in both meetings last season, creating a total of 1.4 expected goals in their two meetings, so against a much improved Liverpool defensive structure, I think they are going to struggle even more.
Liverpool have been so much better under Arne Slot, but I think the important point to take away is they are playing slower and with more control than they were under Jurgen Klopp. Not consistently getting beat in transition and being able to consistently control possession and build out of the back with regularity is what Liverpool desperately needed and now they have it.
Arne Slot teams also take some time to feel matches out. When he was at Feyenoord only 39% of their xThreat came in the first half of matches. In addition to that we are coming out of an international break where players have traveled back to England from all over the globe, so there could be some tired legs to open the match.
This total would be correct if it was Jurgen Klopp's Liverpool, but that is not the case. Liverpool have only allowed a total of 2.2 expected goals through three matches, while Nottingham Forest are actually lower at 2.1.
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09-13-24 11:23 PM |
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msudogs
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EPL Soccer – Liverpool vs. Nottingham Forest
Week 4 of the English Premier League begins on Saturday, September 14. After a two-week break for international soccer, the Premier League is back with an exciting set of fixtures. Tread with a little caution as Matchday 4 not only comes after the EPL players have been all over the globe representing their countries but just before the first midweek round of Champions League fixtures
Liverpool vs. Nottingham Forest Odds
Liverpool -458 // Nottingham Forest +1167
Total: 3.5 (+108/-136)
I have been so impressed with the Liverpool transition to life after Jurgen Klopp and they have been superb under the management of Arne Slot. They look so well drilled, not quite so expansive or high energy but very patient and clinical.
Slot has already had the “Anfield experience.” It was business as usual, with a comfortable 2-0 defeat of Brentford on his debut in the home dugout. That made it 44 wins from 58 home EPL games over the last four seasons, a sequence which has seen them lose just twice.
Much is made of the fearsome Liverpool attack, but dig a little deeper and you will see it is just as much about their watertight defense. Yes, they have scored 146 times over those 58 fixtures, but they have conceded a league-low 43 goals at an average of just 0.74 keeping 27 clean sheets.
In line with the more controlled style of play, the Reds have won all three league games this season without conceding a goal, 2-0, 2-0, 3-0. That does not bode well for a Nottingham Forest side that lost both fixtures last term 1-0 and 3-0.
Taking Forest under 0.5 goals — in other words, not to score — makes great appeal. They have hit the back of the net exactly once in each of their opening three league games, but this trip to Merseyside is a massive step up in class from fixtures with Bournemouth, Southampton and Wolves.
There has been a big move on Liverpool to win the EPL title due to the greater balance they have shown in the early stages of the Slot era.
Another factor to consider is that on Tuesday, Liverpool will travel to Milan for their first Champions League game of the season. They will want to get this job done as early as possible and then close out the match, avoiding any injuries or overexertion from their key players. That will nullify Forest’s big asset of playing on the break into spaces left by opponents overcommitting.
Only the three relegated sides collected fewer points on the road than Nuno Espírito Santo’s men last season with only Everton (18) and Sheffield United (16) scored fewer than their 22 goals away from home. Not much, if anything has changed, other than the hosts are an even tougher nut to crack.
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09-13-24 11:23 PM |
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msudogs
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Man City look to stay atop the Premier League table when they host Brentford at the Etihad.
Manchester City are rolling once again to start the Premier League season. They have won their first three matches against Chelsea, Ipswich Town and West Ham without much of a sweat. This is a very interesting match and spot though for Manchester City with two huge matches on the horizon. Brentford have been a pest to them over the years so there is a chance they slip up.
The Bees are off to a great start to the season, winning two of their first three matches. Thomas Frank's side had a season of massive underperformance in 2023 and they are starting to see some of that positive regression here to start 2024. They sold their star striker Ivan Toney to Al Ahli, but Brentford still have the core of their team together. They were the only team to beat Manchester City twice during their treble winning season in 2022, so they are definitely capable of pulling an upset
One underrated aspect of Manchester City this season is how they’ve gotten back to the basics. For all of his complex tactics, Pep Guardiola knows that at the end of the day winning duels is far more important than anything and nobody is doing that better than Manchester City right now. They have a 62.2% ground duel win rate, which is the best mark in the Premier League, and that is without Rodri playing at all.
Manchester City have put up over three expected goals in back to back matches, but let’s be honest, it’s come against two of the worst defensive teams in the Premier League. The other thing is Brentford are not going to try and build out of the back. Where West Ham and Ipswich ran into issues and why they eventually fell behind City is because they kept turning it over in their own final third, which led to easy transition opportunities for City.
With Rodri back in the lineup, Manchester City will try to exert as much control as possible in this match just like they did last year against Brentford, when they held over 70% of the possession in both matches. The second half against Ipswich was a good example of how Manchester City can put a stranglehold on a match. Ipswich took one shot for the entire match and only had 40 touches in Manchester City's final third, so if they go ahead, look for Pep to put his foot on break with two massive matches on the horizon.
Brentford may not be the defensive team they were two years ago when they were the only team to do the double over Manchester City, but they are sure capable of sitting in their 5-3-2 defensive block and making life difficult for Manchester City. A good example of this match is Brentford’s match against Liverpool in match week two. Oftentimes when massive underdogs like this concede early, they come out of whatever defensive block they were in and try to chase the game. That’s what happened to West Ham two weeks ago against Manchester City and they got punished when they tried to press City’s build up.
After Brentford conceded in the 13th minute, they continued to stay in their low defensive block for a majority of the match and actually did a good job of limiting Liverpool’s chances. Manchester City were able to create over two expected goals against Brentford in both meetings, but the Bees were also in the middle of a difficult run and dealing with a lot of injuries.
The issue here for Brentford is how dangerous can they be when they get their transition opportunities. They weren’t able to do anything against Liverpool and their best chances came off of set pieces.
For the longest time Manchester City really struggled defending in transition because their press wasn't good enough. You are starting to see that press really improve this season with their high duel win rate and how many high recoveries they are forcing. But the biggest thing is they aren't allowing high quality chances in transition so far. West Ham, Ipswich and Chelsea all created less than one expected goal against Manchester City's defense and honestly they should do the same to Brentford.
The Bees aren't going to make the same mistakes in build up that Ipswich and West Ham did to give City easy opportunities. They are going to sit in a low defensive block and deny space through the middle, which is going to make the pace of this match really slow.
This is also the first match out of an international break where players are traveling back to England from all over the world, so with tired legs and limited training time, this really does point to a low-event type match. On top of that, Manchester City have Inter in the Champions League during the week and Arsenal on the weekend, so if they were going to rotate their squad, this would be the match.
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09-14-24 10:08 AM |
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msudogs
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Crystal Palace and Leicester City are both looking for their first win of the Premier League season when they meet at Selhurst Park.
Crystal Palace have had a sluggish start to the season. The Eagles dropped two winnable matches against West Ham and Brentford and followed it up by getting outplayed in a 1-1 draw against Chelsea. No team was hotter down stretch last season than Crystal Palace, mainly because of how Oliver Glasner revolutionized their tactical identity. If Crystal Palace are going to top their 10th-place finish, they have to get all three points from matches like this.
Leicester City have had a difficult start to the season only having one point from their first three matches, but they got the best news they possibly could have gotten during the international break. Leicester were on the brink of the largest points deduction in Premier League history for breaching FFP rules, but they won their appeal against the Premier League to avoid any type of deduction. On the field they need to improve and quickly or else they are headed straight back to the Championship.
Oliver Glasner has completely transformed Crystal Palace for the better, even if the start of the season has been a bit poor.
The Eagles are now one of the better teams outside of the Big Six at building out of the back and being able to effectively play through all phases of build up. They do it in a 3-2-5 shape with the main aim at creating a box midfield to overload the opposition in the middle to be able to pull the defense out of position and find space to create chances. Eberechi Eze is at the center of everything Palace do in build up and is an unreal creator. Last season he had a 0.62 xG + xA per 90 minutes, which was one of the best marks for attacking midfielders in the Premier League.
Adam Wharton is also at the helm of everything that Crystal Palace do – he's the one dropping deep in build up to help Palace get through the second and third phases of build up and is honestly the perfect all around midfielder. Once Cheick Doucouré gets back into the lineup on regular basis it's going to allow Wharton to play a more advanced role, which will make Palace even more dangerous playing through the middle.
With all of that being said, Crystal Palace have been really inefficient offensively to begin the season. Their xG per shot through three matches is 0.08, which is the second-lowest in the Premier League behind only Ipswich Town. They are doing a good job of passing through the first two phases of build up, but once they reach the final third, it ends in a lot of low quality chances, as over 50% of their shots have come from outside the box.
Leicester look like a pretty easy team to figure out right now. Steve Cooper is trying to turn the Foxes into a team that can control possession and build through a lot of short passes rather than his Nottingham Forest team that very transition-based. The Foxes were more of a build out of the back type of team in the Championship last season, so my guess is he doesn’t want to make such a drastic tactical switch given the squad he has.
The result of it though is they cannot find a way through to create consistent chances. Fulham and Aston Villa sat in a passive mid-block against them and the Foxes could not find a way to play through the middle, which is what they did all last year in the Championship. They also went with a front two of Jaime Vardy and Jordan Ayew against Aston Villa, which might be the worst attacking front in the Premier League.
Out of possession the Foxes are spitting image of Steve Cooper’s Nottingham Forest. They will sit in a deep 5-3-2 looking to deny space through the middle. In open play situations, they really haven’t been that bad defensively. What has truly done them is set pieces. Through three matches they have conceded 1.87 xG off of them, which is almost half of the total expected goals they have conceded through three matches.
Crystal Palace are going to sit in a 5-3-2 mid-block and not allow Leicester to have a numerical advantage in the middle of the pitch, so I have a really hard time seeing how the Foxes are going to get one expected goal.
With the inefficiencies these two clubs have had generating chances in front of net, I think it's going to be a really low-event type of match.
Both teams are going to sit in 5-3-2 defensive shapes, which is going to make it difficult to find overloads really anywhere on the pitch. Leicester do not have the front line that can threaten Palace's defense and with the Eagles' inefficiencies in creating high quality chances, I don't see how this match goes off the rails.
We are also coming out of an international break where players are traveling in from all over the globe, so there will likely be some tired legs early on and not having a lot of training time before the match also makes it difficult.
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09-14-24 10:38 AM |
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msudogs
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EPL Soccer – Aston Villa vs. Everton
Week 4 of the English Premier League begins on Saturday, September 14. After a two-week break for international soccer, the Premier League is back with an exciting set of fixtures. Tread with a little caution as Matchday 4 not only comes after the EPL players have been all over the globe representing their countries but just before the first midweek round of Champions League fixtures.
Aston Villa vs. Everton Odds
Aston Villa -209 // Everton +535
Total: 2.5 (-151/+118)
My best bet before the break was that Aston Villa would beat Leicester. That ticket cashed, making it three out of three wins for my strongest play of the week this season.
I am looking to make it four in a row with the same team, this time at home to Everton. The price of -196 illustrates what strong favorites they are. It also means I can’t put them forward on the Moneyline. But I am happy to take them on a -1 Asian Handicap. If they win, we can’t lose—a single-goal margin will be a push, but a two or more-goal victory cashes the ticket in full.
Aston Villa are a side I respect, especially at home, where they have a stunning record, including a run of 14 successive wins from March to December 2023. But this is as much of a fade on Everton as well.
It looked like Sean Dyche had produced an upturn ahead of the break, only for him to watch his side completely collapse. From 2-0 up at home to Bournemouth with 87 of the 90 minutes on the clock, they managed to lose and throw away all three points. It was the latest a team has ever been two goals ahead in a game and lost in Premier League history. How do they recover from that? The answer is I don’t think they do, and a raucous Villa Park is not the venue for a side who have conceded 10 goals in three games with such brittle confidence.
The only factor I can think of which has made Villa such a backable price is that they have their return to the Champions League on Tuesday. That fixture is against Young Boys of Switzerland, which, with respect to them, is not the glamour or prestige of Real Madrid or Barcelona.
In Unai Emery, they have a manager who has been here and done it many times before. He has earned his reputation by producing teams that excel in European competition while still getting the job done in their league. In other words, I don’t see that match as a distraction.
Aston Villa have dominated this fixture and are unbeaten across the last 10 league meetings. They have won seven of those games, including 4-0 here last season. Two of the three draws came on the road.
Expect a continuation of that theme this weekend.
EPL Best Bet: Aston Villa vs Everton – Aston Villa -1 Asian Handicap at -120.
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09-14-24 12:58 PM |
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msudogs
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Aston Villa look for back to back wins when they host Everton at Villa Park.
Aston Villa got a convincing 2-1 win over Leicester City before the international break, giving them six points to start the season. Unai Emery's team now will have to navigate a difficult week as they have to travel to Switzerland for a Champions League match on Tuesday and follow that up with a Midlands derby against Wolves.
Everton had one of the worst collapses the Premier League has ever seen right before the international break. They had a comfortable 2-0 lead with 10 minutes left to play and Bournemouth erased all of it to win 3-2. The loss puts Everton at the bottom of the table with three losses and a -8 goal differential. Sean Dyche desperately needs a response from his team on Saturday.
Unai Emery is a great tactician and he will without a doubt be coming with the same tactical plan as the previous three other teams, as Aston Villa are very versatile with their build up. They showed that last season when they hammered Everton 4-0 at Villa Park.
Aston Villa are a team that likes to control possession and build out of the back. There were some question marks whether they'd be as effective without Douglas Luiz, but the midfield partnership between Onana and Tielemens has been working really nicely so far. The goal is to bait the opponent into pressing to try and get the ball into the second phase and use their skilled dribblers to run at the opposing defense. It's usually a 4-2-4 shape, which gives them a numerical advantage in the first phase and really helps them beat the first line of the pressure.
Once they are able to start running at the opposing defense, they have one of the better strikers in Ollie Watkins. He's elite at making runs off the opponent's back line and it's how he scored most of his 19 goals last season.
Villa's out of possession structure though does leave them vulnerable against a team like Everton. Emery wants his team to play a compact and narrow defensive shape to prevent teams from playing through the middle and finding space in between the lines. They also play a really high line, which leaves them susceptible to balls being played over the top, which is basically the only way Everton like to play when they have the ball.
What was utterly shocking about Everton in that match was their ability to defend crosses. Last season, they were so good in their defensive block and defending in their penalty area to not allow those types of chances to be created. Bournemouth ended up completing eight crosses into the penalty area. For context, Premier League teams typically only allow two completed crosses on average in the penalty area per match.
What is also happening to Everton is teams are taking the blueprint from the opening match against Brighton, which is trying to overload the wide areas to stretch Everton’s defensive block to create space in the middle of the pitch. Bournemouth used those overloads though to simply send in crosses with an alarming amount of success.
The Toffees did look more dangerous in transition against Bournemouth and most importantly they are still one of the best set piece offenses in the Premier League. Last season, Aston Villa were dead last in xG per set piece, so Everton without a doubt has a route to score in this match. Even if they fall behind, they are good pressing team out of their mid to high block, as they were top five in high turnovers last year and have recorded double digit high recoveries in each of their first three Premier League matches.
This match is set up to be a bit more high event, especially if we get an early goal. If Everton go behind, they are going to press aggressively out of their high block to try and generate high turnovers to give them easy transition opportunities. If Aston Villa go behind, they are going to have to play a really high line, but they also will be really aggressive in possession and should eventually find a way through Everton's defensive block.
Emery will come with the same tactical plan as the other three teams that have played Everton to try and stretch their defensive block with wide overloads to create space in the middle of the pitch. If they aren't able to play through the middle, well Everton sure did show against Bournemouth that they are maybe not the team they once were when it comes to winning aerial duels and defending crosses.
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09-14-24 12:58 PM |
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msudogs
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Manchester City are rolling once again to start the Premier League season. They have won their first three matches against Chelsea, Ipswich Town and West Ham without much of a sweat. This is a very interesting match and spot though for Manchester City with two huge matches on the horizon. Brentford have been a pest to them over the years so there is a chance they slip up.
The Bees are off to a great start to the season, winning two of their first three matches. Thomas Frank's side had a season of massive underperformance in 2023 and they are starting to see some of that positive regression here to start 2024. They sold their star striker Ivan Toney to Al Ahli, but Brentford still have the core of their team together. They were the only team to beat Manchester City twice during their treble winning season in 2022, so they are definitely capable of pulling an upset
One underrated aspect of Manchester City this season is how they’ve gotten back to the basics. For all of his complex tactics, Pep Guardiola knows that at the end of the day winning duels is far more important than anything and nobody is doing that better than Manchester City right now. They have a 62.2% ground duel win rate, which is the best mark in the Premier League, and that is without Rodri playing at all.
Manchester City have put up over three expected goals in back to back matches, but let’s be honest, it’s come against two of the worst defensive teams in the Premier League. The other thing is Brentford are not going to try and build out of the back. Where West Ham and Ipswich ran into issues and why they eventually fell behind City is because they kept turning it over in their own final third, which led to easy transition opportunities for City.
With Rodri back in the lineup, Manchester City will try to exert as much control as possible in this match just like they did last year against Brentford, when they held over 70% of the possession in both matches. The second half against Ipswich was a good example of how Manchester City can put a stranglehold on a match. Ipswich took one shot for the entire match and only had 40 touches in Manchester City's final third, so if they go ahead, look for Pep to put his foot on break with two massive matches on the horizon.
Brentford may not be the defensive team they were two years ago when they were the only team to do the double over Manchester City, but they are sure capable of sitting in their 5-3-2 defensive block and making life difficult for Manchester City. A good example of this match is Brentford’s match against Liverpool in match week two. Oftentimes when massive underdogs like this concede early, they come out of whatever defensive block they were in and try to chase the game. That’s what happened to West Ham two weeks ago against Manchester City and they got punished when they tried to press City’s build up.
After Brentford conceded in the 13th minute, they continued to stay in their low defensive block for a majority of the match and actually did a good job of limiting Liverpool’s chances. Manchester City were able to create over two expected goals against Brentford in both meetings, but the Bees were also in the middle of a difficult run and dealing with a lot of injuries.
The issue here for Brentford is how dangerous can they be when they get their transition opportunities. They weren’t able to do anything against Liverpool and their best chances came off of set pieces.
For the longest time Manchester City really struggled defending in transition because their press wasn't good enough. You are starting to see that press really improve this season with their high duel win rate and how many high recoveries they are forcing. But the biggest thing is they aren't allowing high quality chances in transition so far. West Ham, Ipswich and Chelsea all created less than one expected goal against Manchester City's defense and honestly they should do the same to Brentford.
The Bees aren't going to make the same mistakes in build up that Ipswich and West Ham did to give City easy opportunities. They are going to sit in a low defensive block and deny space through the middle, which is going to make the pace of this match really slow.
This is also the first match out of an international break where players are traveling back to England from all over the world, so with tired legs and limited training time, this really does point to a low-event type match. On top of that, Manchester City have Inter in the Champions League during the week and Arsenal on the weekend, so if they were going to rotate their squad, this would be the match.
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09-14-24 03:52 PM |
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msudogs
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Posts: 65535
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The international break is over, the Premier League is back and the fiercest rivalry in England returns Sunday. That, of course, is the North London derby.
The Tottenham/Manchester City fixture at the end of last season is the latest example to support this claim. Entering their penultimate game of a promising first year under Ange Postecoglou, Spurs needed a win to keep their chances of Champions League qualification alive heading into the last day. Unfortunately, their opponents also needed three points, as a victory would keep them ahead of Arsenal in the title race.
A natural quandary for the white side of North London emerged. Most Spurs fans wanted to lose the match, even if it cost them a CL spot, because they didn't want to deal with their neighbors winning the league. That incensed Postecoglou before, during and after the game, who questioned the mentality of his own fans and bemoaned their lack of support in a crucial fixture. Meanwhile, Gooners everywhere got a taste of life as Spurs fans — if only for two hours — as the Lilywhites bottled it yet again. Mikel Arteta summed up Arsenal fans' thoughts well.
The hatred between fanbases and their preference to see their rival fail than their own club succeed make this a special occasion.
It's safe to say, results-wise, this hasn't been the start to the season Postecoglou and company envisaged. After investing around €150 million into the squad over the summer, sights around Hotspur Way were firmly set on the top four. However, Spurs have only picked up four points through their first three fixtures and weren't able to capitalize on lengthy spells of dominance against Leicester and Newcastle. It's a worrying trend that has carried over from the second half of last year.
On a more positive note, both Dominic Solanke and Micky van de Ven will be available for this match, both of whom are integral parts of Postecoglou's tactical setup. Van de Ven's pace is crucial for the recovery defending that comes with Tottenham's high line, and no one else in the squad has Solanke's combination of physicality and box movement. Yves Bissouma might pass the final fitness tests as well, which would be a further boost, and it would leave Richarlison as the only notable absence.
Spurs are very much still a front-footed team, and it seems they have made strides in the set piece department as well. However, frailties in defensive transitions and lack of a consistent wide threat in settled attacking situations do lower their ceiling.
The story of this Arsenal side right now is player availability. Heading into their final match before the international break, the Gunners had two wins from two and were only going to be missing Mikel Merino and Takehiro Tomiyasu over a longer time frame. Then Declan Rice received one of the most egregious red cards ever against Brighton, costing Arsenal three points and ruling him out for the next league fixture, a.k.a. this one.
Things didn't get any better during the two week "break," with Martin Odegaard and Riccardo Calafiori picking up unfortunate, minor injuries. They shouldn't be out for long, but with the NLD this weekend and a trip to the Etihad next Sunday (as well as a CL fixture on Thursday), the timing is just atrocious.
In other words, it's looking likely Arteta won't have any of his first-choice midfielders available Sunday. Jorginho and Thomas Partey should both start, with one of Kai Havertz, Leandro Trossard or Ethan Nwaneri replacing the skipper if he's out. At least the club got a deadline loan deal done for Raheem Sterling, which gives the Arsenal boss more flexibility with how he uses his forwards.
Knowing Rice would be suspended, I remember checking the prices for this fixture after Arsenal drew with Brighton, and the Gunners' moneyline was hovering around even money (and had already dropped). At time of writing, they've fallen to +130 in light of the Odegaard injury news, which is almost laughable because there's no way sportsbooks value the Norwegian at 30 cents. At best, he's Arsenal's fourth-best player and their attack won't function any differently as long as Bukayo Saka is out there.
On top of that, when this fixture was played four-and-a-half months ago, Arsenal were content with ceding territory and using Saka and Kai Havertz to launch counterattacks. It's unlikely the Gunners score twice from set pieces again, and having Jorginho playing instead of Rice will hurt the midfield's athleticism and weaken the press, but Arteta should recognize that and gameplan around it. Spurs are still largely ineffective when faced with a low block, as shown in that 3-2 Arsenal win, so that's something they'll have to overcome here.
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09-15-24 01:30 PM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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EPL Soccer – Wolves vs. Newcastle
Week 4 of the English Premier League concludes on Sunday, September 15. After a two-week break for international soccer, the Premier League is back with an exciting set of fixtures. Tread with a little caution as Matchday 4 not only comes after the EPL players have been all over the globe representing their countries but just before the first midweek round of Champions League fixtures.
Wolves vs. Newcastle Odds
Wolves +231 // Newcastle +109
Total: 3.5 (+114/-134)
I worry for Wolves this season. They are weaker than at any point in recent years. They’ve had a tough start with fixtures against Arsenal and Chelsea, but they at least picked up their first point with a 1-1 tie at Nottingham Forest.
The wait for a first win may go on with Newcastle, the visitors to Molineux this Sunday. However, I am not suggesting we back an away win either. I can’t trust Eddie Howe’s men on the road, as their inability to consistently convert chances into goals on their travels has become a recurring issue.
The Toon have visited Bournemouth in the league and Nottingham Forest in the cup, with both matches ending in a tie. They continue to misfire in attack and while that persists, they will drop points.
Nick Pope is an excellent goalkeeper, and Newcastle’s improved defensive performance since his return from injury is noteworthy. A solid defense can be the foundation for securing points away from home, even when the attack isn’t firing on all cylinders. This defensive stability will help Newcastle avoid defeat, even if they struggle to find the winning goal.
I was intrigued by the historical results of this fixture. Five of the last six meetings at Molineux have ended in draws, a striking statistic. The broader trend of seven draws in the last 11 meetings across all venues emphasizes the evenly matched nature of these two sides despite Newcastle’s general strength, particularly at home.
Given these factors, the +275 odds for a draw do seem generous. This pricing suggests that the traders might be focusing too heavily on the perceived quality gap between the two sides rather than the specific dynamics of this fixture.
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09-15-24 03:28 PM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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Newcastle United looks to continue its unbeaten start to the new campaign when it visits a Wolverhampton Wanderers side still in search of its first league win.
Newcastle have had a favorable fixture list to start their third full season under manager Eddie Howe. But their best performance came against arguably the most difficult opponent, a 2-1 home win over Tottenham Hotspur heading into the international break.
Wolves were faced with a far more difficult start to their second campaign under Gary O'Neil's guidance in the form of losses to Arsenal and Chelsea in their home and away openers. They earned a cagey 1-1 draw at Nottingham Forest the last time out after a League Cup victory the midweek before.
The visiting Magpies are unbeaten in their last five against Wolves overall. But five of the last six fixtures played at the Molineaux Stadium have been draws.
Newcastle is a team looking to prove that last year's early Champions exit and league finish outside the European places owed more to schedule congestion and a rash of injuries than squad quality. This year's early results do more to support than contradict that theory, though every game the Magpies have played has been tightly contested.
And after grinding out a 1-0 win with 10 men against Southampton in their opener, a theme that has emerged in their latter two league games is the preference for high-quality chances over high volume. Even factoring in the Southampton match, the Magpies began the weekend third in the Premier League in average expected goals value per shot at 0.15, behind only Manchester United and Liverpool.
Center-back Fabian Schar will return after serving a three-match ban for his head butt of Southampton's Ben Brereton Diaz in the opener, with one of those games served during a League Cup clash at Nottingham Forest that saw the Magpies advance on penalties. And midfielder Sandro Tonali could also make his first start of the new campaign after the expiration of his 10-month ban for betting activities.
O'Neil is tasked with building on his promising first season at the Molineaux while having to cope with the transfer exit of key attacker Pedro Neto. And so far the Portuguese winger's move to Chelsea appears to have had a substantial ripple effect on former teammate Hwang Hee-Chan.
Despite missing time to play in the Asia Cup and for injury last season, Hwang tied for the team lead with 12 goals and was second on Wolves with 15 goal involvements. So far this campaign, he he failed to register a single shot, let alone an effort on target, in 179 minutes.
That simply has to change for Wolves to make progress. But the good news is it may be a function of the early opponents, with most of his minutes coming in Wolves' first two defeats. He also may carry some restored confidence following a goal for the South Korean national team in Tuesday's World Cup qualifier at Oman.
Wolves were only shut out at home on three occasions last season, and two of those came during the spring when O'Neil grappled with a horrific run of injuries. It's a trend that has also carried over so far this year when they scored twice before before losing grip of the match later in a 6-2 home defeat to Chelsea.
While Newcastle have conceded only twice so far this season, they've ridden their luck considerably, having allowed opponents 5.2 expected goals so far. Although the Magpies are better now than in last year's injury-ridden campaign, their awful away defensive record still stands out, with multiple goals conceded in 13 of those 19 away league fixtures.
Add the combination of Hwang finding a goal on international duty to boost his confidence, and the late Sunday kickoff allowing extra time to recover from the trip, and I think this is a good spot to back the Wolves attack even as it continues to grapple with Neto's departure.
The team total for Wolves over 1.5 goals at +146 odds and an implied 40.7% probability instead of a double-chance or draw-no-bet wager on the home side.
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09-15-24 03:32 PM |
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