8:15 p.m. ET: Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins (-2.5, 48.5)

The Bills (1-0) edged the Cardinals 34-28 in their season opener but failed to cover as 6.5-point home favorites. Similarly, the Dolphins (1-0) just took down the Jaguars 20-17 but failed to cover as 3.5-point home favorites.

This Thursday Night Football line opened with Miami listed as a 1.5-point home favorite. The public sees two evenly matched, undefeated teams and doesn’t know whether to take the points or lay them. However, despite this relatively split ticket count we’ve seen the Dolphins creep up from -1.5 to -2.5. Additionally, most books are juicing up Miami -2.5 to -115, signaling a possible further rise up to the key number of -3. In a vacuum, a line shouldn’t move at all if the tickets are relatively equal, as the oddsmakers theoretically have balanced action on both sides and no need to adjust the price. So, based on the line move toward Miami we can infer that the larger, sharper and more respected wagers are laying the points with the Dolphins at home. Miami is receiving 55% of spread bets but 60% of spread dollars, a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy.

Historically, we’ve seen home favorites perform well on short weeks. Since 2006, Thursday Night Football home favorites have gone 91-75 ATS (55%) with a 7% ROI. Those looking to follow the sharp Miami move but wary of laying the points in what might end up being a close game could instead play the Dolphins on the moneyline at -140. Thursday Night Football home favorites are 123-45 (73%) straight up with a 4% ROI since 2006. When two undefeated teams face off in Week 2, the home favorite is 39-11 (78%) straight up with a 19% ROI since 2006.

Sharps have also hit the under, dropping the total from 51 to 48.5. This movement is notable because the public is hammering the over (73% of bets), yet the total fell, indicating sharp reverse line movement on the under. The under is receiving 27% of bets but 36% of dollars, a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet split. Primetime unders are 161-110 (59%) with a 14% ROI since 2019. Outdoor divisional unders are 224-191 (55%) with a 7% ROI since 2021. Bill Vinovich, the lead ref, is 99-68 (59%) to the under historically. The forecast calls for low 80s with cloudy skies and mild 5 MPH winds at Hard Rock Stadium.

Khalil Shakir over 40.5 receiving yards (-110): Shakir caught three passes for 42 yards in the season opener against Arizona. Shakir has gone over this number in four of his last six games. He has gone over this number in four of his last five road games. In his last game against the Dolphins, Shakir caught six passes for 105 yards in Miami. Shakir is expected to avoid Jalen Ramsey and instead face off against Dolphins’ nickel corner Kader Kohou.

James Cook over 19.5 receiving yards (-110): Cook caught three passes for 32 yards in the season opener against Arizona. Cook averaged 32 receiving yards in two games against Miami last season. Cook may enjoy a favorable matchup against Miami’s linebacking crew. The Bills are also a dog in a high total game, which means they might be playing catch up which leads to more offense and garbage yards late.