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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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The Red Sox (74-73) are 11 games out of the division lead, but just 4.5 games out of the last AL wild-card spot. The clock is ticking on Boston’s playoff hopes, so it'll need to be competitive in this series in order to stay in the postseason hunt.
New York (85-62) has a two-game lead in the AL East. The Yankees have the best record in the American League, but the Orioles are breathing down their necks.
Tanner Houck will be taking the mound for the Red Sox tonight. The 28-year old is having a breakout year with a 3.24 ERA over 169 ⅔ innings pitched, by far the most in his young career. Houck has a 4.19 xERA, 3.56 xFIP, 3.34 FIP, and a 3.73 SIERA through his 28 starts.
Houck has an interesting pitch mix, throwing his sweeper 42% of the time, sinker 32% of the time, and splitter 25% of the time. This has resulted in him putting up a Stuff+ of 108 this year, but his strikeout rate ranks in just the 38th percentile among qualified pitchers.
Houck has been good about avoiding walks, as his 6.6% walk rate ranks in the 69th percentile. His pitch mix induces plenty of ground balls, as he is in the 93rd percentile in ground-ball rate. Houck’s contact quality metrics aren’t great, as he ranks in the 18th percentile in hard-hit rate and 22nd percentile in average exit velocity allowed, but because batters get on top of his pitches and hit them into the ground, he has an 80th percentile barrel rate allowed.
On the season, Boston ranks 10th in wRC+ on offense. They are sixth in wOBA, fifth in SLG, seventh in OBP, and fifth in ISO. The Red Sox walk slightly less than league average and strike out at the third-highest rate in the game.
Boston ranks fifth in hard-hit rate, eighth in barrel rate, and 10th in exit velocity this season. They rank 20th in ground-ball rate and fourth in line-drive rate, as they largely keep the ball off the ground and hit it hard.
The Red Sox’s offense has fallen off as of late. Over the last 30 days, they have a wRC+ of just 87, which ranks 25th in the league. They are also 22nd in wOBA, 26th in OBP, and 26th in walk rate over this period while still striking out 26.7% of the time.
The Yankees’ starter on Friday night will be a 28-year old righty of their own in Clarke Schmidt. Schmidt has made just 12 starts this season, as he suffered a strained right lat back in May and made his return to the rotation just last week. In this first start back, Schmidt threw 4⅔ innings with two strikeouts, not allowing any runs.
In his limited sample this season, Schmidt has a Stuff+ of 115, a whiff rate that ranks in the 81st percentile, and a strikeout rate that ranks in the 72nd percentile. He has a league-average walk rate and has largely avoided allowing hard contact this year.
Schmidt ranks in the 71st percentile in hard-hit rate allowed, 74th percentile in barrel rate allowed, and 50th percentile in average exit velocity allowed. He has a 39th percentile ground-ball rate, which is slightly below average but not a concern.
This Yankees lineup is among the most lethal in the American League. They rank first in MLB in wRC+, third in wOBA, fourth in SLG, second in OBP, and third in ISO. The Yankees walk 10.6% of the time, far more than any other team in the league.
New York ranks third in hard-hit rate, first in barrel rate, and first in exit velocity. Despite these great contact metrics, including their barrel rate, it is surprising that they have the ninth-highest ground-ball rate.
Over the last 30 days, this offense hasn’t been quite as potent. They rank 13th in the league over this time period in wRC+ with a mark of 100, meaning they have been exactly league average. Their plate discipline and batted ball numbers are all still similar, but the Yankees have a 45.9% ground-ball rate in the last 30 days, which is second highest in the league.
Both of these offenses have cooled off over the last month and aren’t playing at their peaks right now. Schmidt has great stuff and I believe he can have a good start against this Boston team that strikes out far too much.
On the other side, the Yankees are a scary offense, but they do hit the ball on the ground quite often. That is Houck’s specialty and I think he will be able to generate groundouts in this game at a better than normal rate.
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09-13-24 10:36 PM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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Los Angeles Dodgers (-112, 8.5) at Atlanta Braves
7:20 p.m. ET
A lot of books have the Braves a slight favorite here, so shop around for the best odds that you can find.
I like the Dodgers here, as they send Landon Knack to the hill against Spencer Schwellenbach. While I’ve been a big believer in the Braves when Schwellenbach starts, the last two outings for the rookie have been concerning. He’s allowed eight runs in 10.2 innings to the Phillies and Blue Jays. His start against Toronto was particularly bad with 11 hard-hit balls and four Barrels. He had allowed a total of six Barrels in the second half up to that point.
The biggest metric for me is that he’s had SwStr% marks of 7.3% and 6.9% in those two September outings. He had seven straight starts of 15.7% or higher prior to that. I can’t help but feel like he may be starting to wear down a little bit. He’s worked 97.2 innings at the MLB level and 45 innings in the minors.
Last season, he only threw 65 minor league innings. He was a position player for the most part at Nebraska, except for the 31.2 innings he pitched in 2021. He didn’t play in 2022. This is a massive innings increase for a guy whose arm isn’t used to it at all.
Knack has a 3.00 ERA with a 4.54 FIP, so there are some negative regression signs, due mostly to a high home run rate as a guy that peppers the strike zone. He has 52 strikeouts against just 13 walks in 54 MLB innings. Knack has worked 122 innings this season after throwing 100.1 last season, so a pretty natural progression.
The Dodgers are third in wOBA at .336 over the last 30 days and the Braves are 15th at .306. If we look specifically against right-handed pitching, LA is fifth at .334 and Atlanta is 27th at .291.
LA’s pen is in fine shape after Thursday’s off day, so I like them even more for that reason. Like I said, shop around and try to find this one a few cents better.
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09-13-24 11:10 PM |
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