UNLV Rebels at Kansas Jayhawks

Open: KU (-11, 58) | Current: KU (-7, 57.5)

Dating back to the beginning of last season Barry Odom is 12-4 ATS at UNLV. The Rebels have looked great in the first two weeks of the season. They have allowed 3.5 yards per play and 10.5 points per game, albeit against Houston and Utah Tech. Kansas will be a much stiffer test for UNLV. This is a rematch of the Guaranteed Rate Bowl in Phoenix last season. The Jayhawks won that game 49-36 but this is a much different Rebels squad, and the market agrees. DraftKings opened this at Kansas -11 but this is now -7 consensus as of Sunday evening.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Purdue Boilermakers

Open: ND (-16, 46) | Current: ND (-12, 46)

For the third consecutive week the market has moved against Notre Dame. The Irish opened as 16-point favorites on Sunday, but that line shot down four points. One of the biggest issues Notre Dame has is its passing attack. Through two games Riley Leonard has thrown for just 321 total yards and two interceptions. He’s averaging only 5.1 yards per attempt. It’s extremely difficult to cover large numbers if you cannot throw the ball downfield. One more note for this game: Notre Dame games are 2-0 to the under so far, and they have gone under by an average of 13.0 points.

UConn Huskies at Duke Blue Devils

Open: DUKE (-19.5, 48) | Current: DUKE (-16.5, 48)

The betting market has not been able to accurately rate UConn to this point of the season. In Week 1 the Huskies were hammered against the Terps, but they were smoked and failed to cover a single number. On Saturday, UConn opened as a 16-point favorite and closed -14 but covered everything in a 63-17 win. The market is back to supporting the Huskies here, but it might be more about fading the Blue Devils.

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders

Open: WKU (-4.5, 54.5) | Current: WKU (-7.5, 54)

Middle Tennessee State barely got by Tennessee Tech in its season-opener and followed that up with a 52-3 loss at Ole Miss on Saturday. The Blue Raiders are now 0-2 ATS and have failed to cover their contests by an average of 7.5 points. Western Kentucky bounced back with a win over Eastern Kentucky last week, but this move does not seem like an endorsement of the Hilltoppers. Instead, it feels like the market is piling on a putrid team out of C-USA.

Jacksonville State Gamecocks at Eastern Michigan Eagles

Open: JKST (-2.5, 49) | Current: EMU (-2.5, 49)

Similar to Middle Tennessee, it would seem the market is out on Jacksonville State. DraftKings opened the Gamecocks up as 2.5-point favorites on Sunday, but it is the Eagles who are now favored at home. Jacksonville State has not covered a game and has a -18.8 spread differential. It has allowed 7.9 yards per play and 52 points per game. It is more than fair to downgrade this team and scoff at the idea of it laying points on the road to any opponent.

Georgia Bulldogs at Kentucky Wildcats

Open: UGA (-18, 46.5) | Current: UGA (-23.5, 46.5)

Kentucky burned the betting market last week, and the market has seemingly turned its back on the Wildcats. DraftKings opened this line at Georgia -18 and this number was bet up 5.5 points once it was on the board. Georgia is only 13-15-1 ATS since 2022 but perhaps the dismantling of Clemson in Week 1 has the market back on board.

Colorado Buffaloes at Colorado State Rams

Open: CU (-10, 59.5) | Current: CU (-7.5, 59.5)

Shedeur Sanders was pressured on 16 of his dropbacks – sacked five times – and averaged just 6.4 yards per attempt through the air in the loss to Nebraska. Through two games the Buffaloes are 0-2 ATS with a -9 spread differential. The market already went in Colorado State’s direction with this contest when the Game of the Year lines went up in the summer, and it is heading in that direction once again.

Indiana Hoosiers at UCLA Bruins

Open: UCLA (-1, 48.5) | Current: IU (-3, 48.5)

How good is Indiana really? The Hoosiers are 2-0 SU/1-1 ATS and have beat down the likes of FIU and Western Illinois. No matter how you feel about UCLA, it’s hard to really have a read on Indiana at this point. Still, the market has installed the Hoosiers as field goal favorites on the road against the Bruins. UCLA got the job done at Hawaii, but it failed to cover in the victory. The team has had a week to prepare after getting last week off. Perhaps that will be enough, but it’s clear the market does not think much of the Bruins.

let's watch these today
GL

CFB AP Poll Rankings System #1 – Games featuring two ranked teams
When better-ranked home teams have been single-digit favorites or underdogs, they have gone 53-15 SU and 46-19-3 ATS (70.8%) since 2017.
System Match (PLAY): KANSAS STATE (-7.5 vs. Arizona)

Upset losses as huge favorites snowball
Teams that lose in a college football game as favorites of 19.5 points or more have gone just 38-66 SU & 35-65-4 ATS (35%) in the follow-up contest since 2012.
System Match (FADE): NOTRE DAME (-10.5 at Purdue)

Revenge is sweet against porous defensive foes
Teams seeking revenge against a team that is currently allowing 35 PPG or more have been very successful, going 205-160 ATS (56.2%) since 2016.
System Match (PLAY ALL): EAST CAROLINA (+2.5 vs. App State), EASTERN MICHIGAN (-2 vs. Jax State)

NEW MEXICO STATE at FRESNO STATE
Under the total is 8-1 in the last nine of NMSU-FSU head-to-head series
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 48.5)