Daniil Medvedev vs. Jannik Sinner Odds

Moneyline: Sinner -275, Medvedev +215

Spread: Sinner -4.5 (-110), Medvedev +4.5 (-120)

Total: Over 38.5 (-120), Under 38.5 (-105)

Sinner looked really good from the baseline in his win over Tommy Paul. The Italian’s first serve was a bit of a problem, but he was able to make up for it with some well-placed second serves and overwhelming ground strokes. It was truly a special performance in a lot of ways. However, Sinner’s not going to be able to breeze by Medvedev without making a good percentage of his first serves. Medvedev is too good when it comes to returning, and he’s a better baseliner than Paul. The American did look rather sharp from the baseline against Sinner, but he didn’t play big points well. Medvedev should be able to do so.

Medvedev also likes to battle in the mud, as he’s one of the best grinders on tour. So, if this match ends up getting a little sloppy, the Russian will love his chances. And given what we’ve seen from Sinner lately, that’s exactly how this match could turn out. Sinner was able to lift a Masters 1000 trophy in Cincinnati a couple of weeks ago, but he was winning ugly rather often. I’m not sure he’ll be able to do that against Medvedev. The Italian needs to come out and play A+ tennis in order to cover the game spread here.

It’s also not clear how healthy Sinner is at the moment. He obviously won a big title a few weeks ago, and he mostly looked like himself against Paul. But there was also a stretch in which he was grabbing at his bad hip. And Sinner is also prone to losing his legs a bit late in longer matches, which is why Medvedev’s main objective here will be extending rallies and hoping to outlast the 23-year-old.

The conditions in this night match could favor the Medvedev playing style, too. Arthur Ashe Stadium tends to play slower at night, which should mean longer rallies. That’s exactly what Medvedev wants. He’s going out there with the goal of hoping to extract some errors out of Sinner’s racquet.

Medvedev also loves playing in Arthur Ashe Stadium. where he won his only career Grand Slam title. He also has a better career record at this major than he does in any of the others. So, you should be able to count on Medvedev finding his best stuff here, and I’m not sure the same can be said for Sinner. He looked a little nervy against Paul early in the match, but he was able to rely on his superior talent to get him out of a funk. I’m not sure the talent gap here is wide enough for that to happen again.

Bet: Medvedev +5.5 Games (-137 – 1.5 units)